系统效能通用评估工具研究

基于数据库和算法集成,设计了一套具有良好通用性、灵活性、可扩展性的系统效能评估工具,并以此工具为基础,针对不同的评估需求、数据量和应用环境提出对应的解决方案.     

Flexible long range planning using low cost information

Contemporary transport planning requires a flexible modelling approach which can be used to monitor the implementation of a long term plan checking regularly its short term performance with easily available data; the original model is periodically updated using low cost information and this allows the evaluation of the changes to the plan which may be required. Such an approach requires models suited to regular updating and to the use of data from different sources. Models to update trip matrices from traffic counts have been available for some time; however, the estimation and/or updating of other model stages with low cost data has escaped analytical treatment. The paper discusses this idea and formulates the updating problem for an example involving a joint destination/mode choice model under various assumptions about the nature of the available data. Analytical solutions are proposed as well as some general conclusions.requests for offprints     

Alternative Modeling Approaches Used for Examining Automobile Ownership: A Comprehensive Review

Abstract

Household vehicle ownership, and the associated dimensions including fleet size, vehicle type and usage, has been one of the most researched transport topics. This paper endeavors to provide a critical overview of the wide-ranging methodological approaches employed in vehicle ownership modeling depending on the ownership representation over the past two decades. The studies in the existing literature based on the vehicle ownership representation are classified as: exogenous static, exogenous dynamic, endogenous static and endogenous dynamic models. The methodological approaches applied range from simple linear regressions to complex econometrics formulations taking into account a rich set of covariates. In spite of the steady advancement and impressive evolution in terms of methodological approaches to examine the decision process, we identify complex issues that pose a formidable challenge to address the evolution of vehicle ownership in the coming years. Specifically, we discuss challenges with data availability and methodological framework selection. In light of these discussions, we provide a decision matrix for aiding researchers/practitioners in determining appropriate model frameworks for conducting vehicle ownership analysis.     

Measuring community reaction to urban transportation impacts using Von Neumann‐Morgenstern utility theory

This paper attempts to measure the impacts of urban transportation system improvements or changes on the community. The community's perceptions of the impacts are represented by its utilities (or disutilities) over various ranges of values of the multiple attributes representing these impacts. The utility technique used in the evaluation is based upon von Neumann‐Morgenstern (vN‐M, 1947) Utility Theory, and is applied using Raiffa's (1970) Fractile Method.

The paper specifically applies the technique to model the perceptions of five subgroups within a community to the impact of a new light rail transit system that is being incorporated in the transportation system of the City of Calgary.

Results of the modeling indicate explicitly how the community changes its perception over ranges of values of the attributes evaluated. Biases of various subgroups within the community over these attributes are also shown. Statistical tests indicate that aggregated utility perceptions can represent the utility perceptions of the individual subgroups quite reasonably.     

Role of Bus‐Based Park and Ride in the UK: A Temporal and Evaluative Review

Abstract

The number of bus‐based Park and Ride (P&R) schemes in the UK has grown substantially over the past 40 years as a result of its encouragement by the Government as a tool to deal with increasing traffic congestion and traffic‐related pollution. The aim of this article is to analyse the degree to which P&R is effective in the contemporary policy context. The authors identify phases of development of P&R since its emergence as a local solution to transport capacity constraints in historic towns. Policy goals are identified against which a review of literature is used to highlight its effectiveness. It is concluded that P&R may increase the distance travelled by its users due to low load factors on dedicated buses, public transport abstraction and trip generation, although it is highlighted that there are areas in which further research is required to clarify its impacts.     

A note on the use of correlation coefficients for assessing goodness-of-fit in spatial interaction models

The use of correlation coefficients to evaluate the accuracy of spatial interaction models is inappropriate unless such models have been fitted using least squares techniques. In other cases the correlation involves an implicit intercept value and a regression coefficient that may significantly modify the interaction model's estimates. Researchers have not acknowledged the role of these two parameters when the correlation is used. A generalized root mean square error is proposed as an alternative indicator of accuracy that may be used with any model.     

Choice of parking: Stated preference approach

Over recent years, parking policy has become a key element of transport policy in many countries. Parking policy measures can affect many different dimensions of travel behaviour but are likely to be most significant in terms of travellers' choice of parking type and location. This dimension of travel choice has, to date, received comparatively little attention, yet is of vital importance if we are to properly understand and predict the effects of parking policy measures.This paper presents two studies addressing this issue carried out in the United Kingdom and Germany. Both studies used a stated preference approach in order to collect disaggregate data on travellers responses to changes in parking attributes and used these data to build simple logit models of parking type choice. The studies were designed in order to allow comparable choice models to be estimated from the two datasets. The results obtained strongly indicate the need to separately identify the costs associated with different components of the parking activity (e.g., general in-vehicle time, parking search time, egress time) and also point to the existence of significant differences in the relative valuation of these components across different journey purposes. Where possible, the results of the choice modelling exercises are also compared with existing revealed and stated preference results and are found to be generally in line with prior expectations.     

Management of coastal eutrophication: Integration of field data, ecosystem-scale simulations and screening models

A hybrid approach for eutrophication assessment in estuarine and coastal ecosystems is presented. The ASSETS screening model (http://www.eutro.org) classifies eutrophication status into five classes: High (better), Good, Moderate, Poor and Bad (worse). This model was applied to a dataset from a shallow coastal barrier island system in southwest Europe (Ria Formosa), with a resulting score of Good. A detailed dynamic model was developed for this ecosystem, and the outputs were used to drive the screening model. Four scenarios were run on the research model: pristine, standard (simulates present loading), half and double the current nutrient loading. The Ria Formosa has a short water residence time and eutrophication symptoms are not apparent in the water column. However, benthic symptoms are expressed as excessive macroalgal growth and strong dissolved oxygen fluctuations in the tide pools. The standard simulation results showed an ASSETS grade identical to the field data application. The application of the screening model to the other scenario outputs showed the responsiveness of ASSETS to changes in pressure, state and response, scoring a grade of High under pristine conditions, Good for half the standard scenario and Moderate for double the present loadings. The use of this hybrid approach allows managers to test the outcome of measures against a set of well-defined metrics for the evaluation of state. It additionally provides a way of testing and improving the pressure component of ASSETS. Sensitivity analysis revealed that sub-sampling the output of the research model at a monthly scale, typical for the acquisition of field data, may significantly affect the outcome of the screening model, by overlooking extreme events such as occasional night-time anoxia in tide pools.     

Investigating the influence of soil properties on railway traffic vibration using a numerical model

This paper presents the influence of dynamic and geometrical soil parameters on the propagation of ground vibrations induced by external loads. The proposed approach is based on a three-dimensional model, focusing on realistic excitation sources like impulse loads and moving railway vehicles. For the latter, a complete vehicle/track model is developed. The simulation is performed in time domain, offering an interesting approach, compared with classic cyclic analyses. The ground is modelled initially as an elastic homogeneous half-space and additionally as a layered half-space. First, the effect of homogeneous soil properties on ground vibration is analysed. Soil stratification is then taken into account, using various configurations. Analysis reveals that as receiver distance increases ground wave reflection in a layered ground plays an important role in the reduction of ground surface motion. This effect is magnified when the phase velocity wavelength becomes large compared with the depth of the surface layer.     

混输原油管道优化运行技术研究

针对长吉输油管线采用混合输送方式输送俄罗斯原油和大庆原油及该管线的工程实际,以总运行费用最小为原则,以各站进站温度和开泵方案为决策变量,建立了该管线优化运行的数学模型,采用穷举法穷举出各种可能的开泵方案作为外层嵌套,将进站温度的优化作为内层嵌套求解该模型。通过某天实际运行方案和优化运行方案对比可以看出,优化运行方案总费用降低7%。