Towards data-driven car-following models

Car following models have been studied with many diverse approaches for decades. Nowadays, technological advances have significantly improved our traffic data collection capabilities. Conventional car following models rely on mathematical formulas and are derived from traffic flow theory; a property that often makes them more restrictive. On the other hand, data-driven approaches are more flexible and allow the incorporation of additional information to the model; however, they may not provide as much insight into traffic flow theory as the traditional models. In this research, an innovative methodological framework based on a data-driven approach is proposed for the estimation of car-following models, suitable for incorporation into microscopic traffic simulation models. An existing technique, i.e. locally weighted regression (loess), is defined through an optimization problem and is employed in a novel way. The proposed methodology is demonstrated using data collected from a sequence of instrumented vehicles in Naples, Italy. Gipps’ model, one of the most extensively used car-following models, is calibrated against the same data and used as a reference benchmark. Optimization issues are raised in both cases. The obtained results suggest that data-driven car-following models could be a promising research direction.     

Development of control models for the planning of sustainable transportation systems

Planning of sustainable transportation systems requires integration of multiple systems while considering a holistic approach. A limited amount of research has been conducted that simultaneously considers all the transportation, economic activity, environmental and social effects. The proposed research envisages incorporating considerations related to sustainability and providing solutions to stakeholders in policy making. In this paper, a dynamic model for planning and development of sustainable transportation systems is presented. This is given by a system of three nonlinear differential equations representing the dynamics of the three independent states, namely, transportation, activity, and environmental systems. A policy scenario considering investment in energy efficient technologies and its effects on the states is discussed to assist making investment decisions. Optimal control techniques are used to design the controls. The results show that it is possible to formulate an optimal control to achieve the desired target. Numerical results, based on actual parameters, are presented to illustrate the long-term trends of the states. The methodology discussed in this paper will be helpful to decision makers in making optimal decisions. The contribution of this research work is the introduction of a systems and controls methodology to develop optimal policies for the design of sustainable systems.     

多模型交通流预测优化

根据当前交通流预测模型发展的情况,提出采用卡尔曼滤波模型、指数平滑模型和非参数回归模型进行预测融合的方法,该方法在提高系统预测速度的基础上也能提高预测精度,因此,具有很好的推广价值.     

һ��ģʽ�����пط�ʽ׷�ټ����ģ��������Ż����

通过对一次制动模式曲线列控方式的剖析，阐述了在确定列车追踪时间间隔时传统公式使用平均速度进行计算所存在的弊端，从而提出了利用计算机仿真技术对一次模式曲线列控方式下的追踪时间间隔及其对应模式曲线的生成进行模拟计算，并针对该模拟计算提出了相应的模型与算法；同时，基于追踪时间间隔一般情况下受限于车站到达间隔的事实，对列车进站进行了提前减速的优化设计，并提出了相应的模型流程。最后，针对前述研究作了实例验算。     

高速列车开行方案研究

对高速列车停站影响进行了分析，建立了高速列车开行主案的多目标０－１规划数学模型，研究了一套有效可行的多层次０－１规划模型，这用有序组全树方法对问题求解。     

���зֲ�����Ϣ��ģ��

熵最大化方法被广泛应用于交通规划，为交通需求预测模型提供了理论依据.本文使用信息论中的熵概念描述居民出行分布，并根据最大信息熵理论提出了基于原点矩典型特征量约束条件下的出行分布模型，详细阐述了模型中各个参数的实际含义，该模型是一个普适性模型，其具体形式决定于最高阶原点矩阶数的取值，此值对模型精度及参数标定难易程度有重要影响.为确定模型参数，提出了实用的参数标定方法.由于模型中原点矩的最高阶数对模型精度有较大影响，为找到两者之间的关系，利用长春市出行调查数据研究了四种出行方式分别时应于五种原点矩最高阶数的模型拟合情况.因文中所建立的模型是一系列模型，为比较其描述问题的优劣差异，按照最大信息熵原理给出了确定系统分布的熵方法，并运用该方法对前述模型进行了比较.调查数据的验证结果表明，出行分布的信息熵模型可以正确地描述出行分布规律，熵方法可以简单有效地评价不同模型对同一问题描述的优劣差异.本文提出的熵模型和熵方法对城市交通规划具有指导意义.     

交际策略的理论研究及其教学方法

本从理论和实践两个方面对交际策略进行了较为全面的论述。首先阐述了交际能力和策略能力的关系，比较了交际策略和学习策略的区别。然后介绍了交际策略的十种定义，并指出是如何从不同的角度加以定义的。接着评析了交际策略的三种较有代表性的模式和各种模式的优缺点。最后在此基础上，从宏观和微观两方面对交际策略的教授提出了相应的建议。     

铁路枢纽作业轮廓计划优化模型及算法

本文给出铁路枢纽日常运输组织工作轮廓计划多商品时空网络流模型及算法，对次日枢纽内大小车流、机车应用配合我纽内各站装、卸、排空计划作出合理安排。揭示枢纽内各站次日工作的重点与关键。为进一步编制日班计划及阶段计划提供指导及辅助决策基础。     

美国海军业务化海洋预报系统综述

美国海军海洋预报系统最早始于苏联时期,自此之后,美国海军制定了一系列计划,构建海洋观测网络,开发海洋数值模式,发展军事海洋学,旨在建成一套完整、精确的全球海洋预报系统并实现业务化应用。美国海军海洋学一直走在世界前沿,本文将对美国海军海洋预报系统的发展历程、成果及其现状进行阐述,这对于我国军事海洋学以及海洋预报系统的发展具有重要借鉴作用。     

Motorway crash duration and its determinants: do durations vary across motorways?

Traffic congestion has been a growing issue in many metropolitan areas during recent years, which necessitates the identification of its key contributors and development of sustainable strategies to help decrease its adverse impacts on traffic networks. Road incidents generally and crashes specifically have been acknowledged as the cause of a large proportion of travel delays in urban areas and account for 25% to 60% of traffic congestion on motorways. Identifying the critical determinants of travel delays has been of significant importance to the incident management systems, which constantly collect and store the incident duration data. This study investigates the individual and simultaneous differential effects of the relevant determinants on motorway crash duration probabilities. In particular, it applies parametric Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) hazard‐based models to develop in‐depth insights into how the crash‐specific characteristic and the associated temporal and infrastructural determinants impact the duration. AFT models with both fixed and random parameters have been calibrated on one year of traffic crash records from two major Australian motorways in South East Queensland, and the differential effects of determinants on crash survival functions have been studied on these two motorways individually. A comprehensive spectrum of commonly used parametric fixed parameter AFT models, including generalized gamma and generalized F families, has been compared with random parameter AFT structures in terms of goodness of fit to the duration data, and as a result, the random parameter Weibull AFT model has been selected as the most appropriate model. Significant determinants of motorway crash duration included traffic diversion requirement, crash injury type, number and type of vehicles involved in a crash, day of week and time of day, towing support requirement and damage to the infrastructure. A major finding of this research is that the motorways under study are significantly different in terms of crash durations; such that motorway 1 exhibits durations that are on average 19% shorter compared with the durations on motorway 2. The differential effects of explanatory variables on crash durations are also different on the two motorways. The detailed presented analysis confirms that looking at the motorway network as a whole, neglecting the individual differences between roads, can lead to erroneous interpretations of duration and inefficient strategies for mitigating travel delays along a particular motorway.