船-标-岸协同下智能长江航运及其发展展望

智能化是长江航运信息化发展的必然趋势,有效地利用物联网技术获取长江航运系统信息是长江航运智能化的发展方向。文中提出船-标-岸协同下的长江智能航运决策系统架构,分析以船-标-岸为载体,基于物联网技术的长江航运系统信息采集的关键技术,探讨长江智能航运系统知识获取方法,展望船-标-岸协同下的长江智能航运技术研究需求。     

西江航运堵点分析及对策*

目前西江干线通道面临着下游不畅、中游梗阻、上游和支流不通不畅等问题,对于保障珠江内河水运健康发展带来较大影响。基于广西内河货运量发展特点和相关货运量预测结论,从航道通过能力角度,对西江航运干线及主要支流开展堵点分析,系统分析分区段的航道通过能力计算公式,并结合实际情况总结西江航运干线及主要支流堵点对应问题,从改善基础设施条件、提高运行维护管理水平、促进船型优化发展等角度提出对策建议,为政府部门开展行业管理、提高航运服务能力等提供技术支撑。     

湘桂运河建设对长江航运物流格局的影响研究

为做好湘桂运河建设前期论证工作,推动运河连通工程加快实施,从物流通道的视角,以运河前期规划方案和大量调研成果为基础,采用定性分析和定量预测的方法,从内河水运、综合交通、国际物流等层面剖析运河在交通运输格局中的重要地位;从航道网络、港口枢纽、运输组织和货物流向等方面分析运河对长江航运物流格局的影响,预测2035和2050年长江航运向运河通道的货运分流量。     

基于交易费用的航运组织制度演进机理

为了分析国际航运组织制度发展过程, 应用交易费用的基本理论, 研究了国际航运组织中班轮公会、协商协议组织、联营体、战略联盟等4种典型形式及其演进机理, 并以交易费用为基础对航运组织的诱导性和强制性两种制度变迁模式进行了对比研究。结果表明: 航运组织制度的形成与变迁过程均存在交易费用; 成本差额、摩擦成本以及机会成本等是航运组织制度演进过程中交易成本的具体体现形式; 由于交易费用, 航运组织制度具有非均衡性, 其发展是一个不断演进的非均衡过程。     

精细操作 适应定线——长江船舶定线制航路与驾驶技术研究

文章针对长江江苏段定线制航路的引入,解读定线制规定的正确运用,分析船队航法与操作习惯的改变,研究适应定线制航路通行的安全对策。     

世界LNG海运市场回顾与展望

LNG海上贸易作为世界天然气贸易的一种重要方式,得到了快速的发展。分析了世界LNG海运市场运量和运力的情况,并对未来市场的发展进行了展望。     

Game-theoretical models for competition analysis in a new emerging liner container shipping market

This paper develops three game-theoretical models to analyze shipping competition between two carriers in a new emerging liner container shipping market. The behavior of each carrier is characterized by an optimization model with the objective to maximize his payoff by setting optimal freight rate and shipping deployment (a combination of service frequency and ship capacity setting). The market share for each carrier is determined by the Logit-based discrete choice model. Three competitive game strategic interactions are further investigated, namely, Nash game, Stackelberg game and deterrence by taking account of the economies of scale of the ship capacity settings. Three corresponding competition models with discrete pure strategy are formulated as the variables in shipment deployment are indivisible and the pricing adjustment is step-wise in practice. A ɛ -approximate equilibrium and related numerical solution algorithm are proposed to analyze the effect of Nash equilibrium. Finally, the developed models are numerically evaluated by a case study. The case study shows that, with increasing container demand in the market, expanding ship capacity setting is preferable due to its low marginal cost. Furthermore, Stackelberg equilibrium is a prevailing strategy in most market situations since it makes players attain more benefits from the accommodating market. Moreover, the deterrence effects largely depend on the deterrence objective. An aggressive deterrence strategy may make potential monopolist suffer large benefit loss and an easing strategy has little deterrence effect.     

Designing a decision support model for the LNG market

Abstract

As the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market is supply-driven and subject to long-term contracts, both liquefaction companies and shipowners need to make strategic decisions on fleet chartering requirements. These planning decisions become ever more difficult in light of the transformations permeating the LNG market, propelling into a more competitive market with more flexible trades and expanding spot markets. The overcapacity of LNG ships during 2008–2009 triggered by massive overcontracting is a good case in point where the use of decision support models would have been beneficial, especially considering the fortunes and risks at stake. In this paper we present an LNG shipping model that effectively supports decision-making in practice. To demonstrate the value added of the model, we study the implications of LNG project delays and increased decommissioning of ships with respect to market balance and fleet requirements.     

Modelling cyclic container freight index using system dynamics

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the cyclical nature of container shipping market represented by a containerized freight index and proposes a predictive cyclical model of the market. In contrast to the traditional spectral analysis (univariate), system dynamics reflect the drivers of the market in both supply and demand side, and therefore, it is a multi-variate system equilibrium approach consisting of various causal spillovers from sub-components of the market. This study is the first to analyze the cycle of container market using system dynamics. By utilizing system dynamics cyclicality approach, one-step ahead predictions are generated for monthly containerized freight index and compared to conventional benchmarks for post-sample validation. Our study can also help policymakers and shipping liners for better management and invest timing of container ship.     

基于粗糙-支持向量机的航运企业客户信用评估

针对航运企业客户数据样本量少,信息量贫乏、不确定性等特点,提出了一种基于双向互动的粗糙-支持向量机的动态建模方法.利用该方法对具有复杂动态特性和不确定性的航运企业客户信用评估进行建模,并进行了实例研究.结果表明,基于粗糙-支持向量机的动态模型具有较快的收敛速度、较高的建模精度以及较好的泛化能力.