班轮公会的衰落及航运联盟的发展

定期船经营出现以来的100多年时间中,班轮公会在维护航运秩序中发挥了重要作用。随着航运生产技术、运输组织技术、航运竞争方式的变革和进步,班轮公会已结束其历史使命,被新的竞争形式所取代,于20世纪末退出历史舞台,取而代之的是航运联盟、航运公司的合并与兼并等。     

集装箱运输的发展及我国航运公司的发展策略

介绍了近几年国际集装箱班轮市场的发展情况及所呈现的趋势;然后分析了我国的集装箱班轮公司在国际海运市场竞争中的优劣;最后为我国航运企业的发展提出了几点建议。     

Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.     

Key criteria influencing the choice of Arctic shipping: a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model

As Arctic sea ice shrinks due to global warming, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage (NWP) offer a substantial reduction in shipping distance between Asia and the European and North American continents, respectively, when compared to conventional routes through the Suez and Panama Canals. However, Arctic shipping routes have many problems associated with their use. The main objective of this paper is to identify the key criteria that influence the decisions of shipping operators with respect to using Arctic shipping routes. A multi-criteria decision-making methodology, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, is applied to rank four potential categories of criteria (‘economic’, ‘technical’, ‘political’ and ‘safety’ factors) and their sub-criteria.

The results of the analysis suggest that, on aggregate, ‘economic’ is the most important category of influential factors, followed by ‘safety’, ‘technical’ and ‘political’ factors. The paper concludes, however, that the most influential specific sub-criteria relate to risks that lie mainly within the ‘safety’ and ‘political’ domains and that, especially in combination, these overwhelm the importance which is attached to ‘economic’ factors such as reduced fuel use. Finally, the implications of these findings for the future development of Arctic shipping are addressed at a strategic level.     

The value of options for time charterparty extension: an artificial neural networks (ANN) approach

The most frequently associated options in the physical shipping market are options to extend the charter period on time charters and additional shipment options on contracts of affreightment. The value of freight options, in practice, is estimated mostly by referring to forward curves. An option on freight has different properties from its financial counterparts, and the straightforward adoption of theoretical models does not produce promising results. In this paper, extension options, which have the property of options on futures, were transformed into regular European options before the application of the Black-Scholes model (BSM). The efficient market hypothesis, which justifies the parity of the performance of a long-term charter to that of repetitive short-term charters, worked as the basis for the transformation. The option values determined by the BSM were compared with actual realized values. Additionally, the artificial neural networks (ANN) was employed to derive the option values. This study is meaningful as the first-time application of both the closed-form solution and the ANN to the valuation of physical freight options. The research results can contribute to the quality of chartering decisions. The results could also be used in quantifying credit risk, as extension options tend to be granted to charterers with more creditability.     

Methodology for ro-ro ship and fleet sizing with application to short sea shipping

A novel methodology is developed for determining the characteristics of a cargo roll-on/roll-off (ro-ro) ship and the fleet size required for a given short sea shipping route. The ship and required fleet size to satisfy the transportation demand (for each pair of speed and freight rate) are determined using a database of existing cargo ro-ro ships to obtain the main technical characteristics of the most suitable ship. The time charter, voyage costs and revenue are then calculated considering the technical characteristics of each ship. Fuel costs are corrected for the actual ship speed and loading condition. A number of restrictions in the transportation problem are considered leading to the exclusion of unfeasible solutions. The maximum profit over the period of a year is identified among the feasible pairs of speed and freight rate. This general methodology is applied in a case study that considers the route between Leixões (Portugal) and Rotterdam (Netherlands). The study allows the identification of the most suitable ship and fleet sizes for different market penetration levels and quantifies the impact on shipping company profit of changes in parameters such as fuel costs, time charter costs, emission control area, installed propulsion power and stacking factor.     

深海海山周围航船噪声建模与特性研究

本文以抛物方程模型为基础,结合声场的互易性,提出一种深海低频航船噪声建模方法,该方法将声源与接收点位置互换,大大降低了声场计算的运行次数和运行时间,基于该方法对深海海山周围的航船噪声进行计算和分析.研究结果表明:海山对声传播损失的影响取决于接收阵元与海山的位置关系以及海山的几何参数.由于海山的遮挡作用,海山附近航船噪声的水平指向性具有不均匀性,在有海山遮挡的方向噪声级明显低于无海山遮挡的方向,海山附近航船噪声的垂直指向性会出现多个峰值.此外,单个尖峰海山的遮挡对接收阵元处的航船噪声总级影响较小.     

伊朗城市轨道交通工程市场分析和开拓策略

通过对伊朗城市轨道交通工程市场的分析和评估,结合中伊两国经贸合作发展和我国企业的优势,提出对伊朗城市轨道交通工程的市场开拓策略。     

严冬回暖中的航运企业生存与发展问题的探讨

由美国次贷危机而引发的金融危机对全球航运市场产生了严重影响,对航运市场特别是干散货市场和集装箱市场造成了巨大的冲击,使航运市场跌入低谷。虽然现在有回暖的趋势,但今年的行情仍然不容乐观。航运企业应该及时调整经营策略,采取积极的应对措施,将金融危机给企业带来的损失降低到最小程度。     

浅谈金融危机下海事监管对策

文中通过透视2008年金融危机所引起的航运业的潮起潮落,指出了航运业与造船业在不景气的情况下所存在的问题,并分析了在这特殊时段海事部门应当如何做好监管与服务工作,提出了笔者一点浅显的意见。