Comparing different contour methods with response-based methods for extreme ship response analysis

Environmental contours are often applied in probabilistic structural reliability analysis to identify extreme environmental conditions that may give rise to extreme loads and responses. They facilitate approximate long term analysis of critical structural responses in situations where computationally heavy and time-consuming response calculations makes full long-term analysis infeasible. The environmental contour method identifies extreme environmental conditions that are expected to give rise to extreme structural response of marine structures. The extreme responses can then be estimated by performing response calculations for environmental conditions along the contours.Response-based analysis is an alternative, where extreme value analysis is performed on the actual response rather than on the environmental conditions. For complex structures, this is often not practical due to computationally heavy response calculations. However, by establishing statistical emulators of the response, using machine learning techniques, one may obtain long time-series of the structural response and use this to estimate extreme responses.In this paper, various contour methods will be compared to response-based estimation of extreme vertical bending moment for a tanker. A response emulator based on Gaussian processes regression with adaptive sampling has been established based on response calculations from a hydrodynamic model. Long time-series of sea-state parameters such as significant wave height and wave period are used to construct N-year environmental contours and the extreme N-year response is estimated from numerical calculations for identified sea states. At the same time, the response emulator is applied on the time series to provide long time-series of structural response, in this case vertical bending moment of a tanker. Extreme value analysis is then performed directly on the responses to estimate the N-year extreme response. The results from either method will then be compared, and it is possible to evaluate the accuracy of the environmental contour method in estimating the response. Moreover, different contour methods will be compared.     

基于工作过程系统化的汽车车身修复技术课程设计

本文以基于工作过程系统化思想,对汽车车身修复技术课程进行了设计.阐述了本课程基于工作过程系统化的课程设计思路、学习情境设计、课程教学方法及考核方法设计.     

Residential built environment and walking activity: Empirical evidence of Jane Jacobs’ urban vitality

This study intends to empirically verify Jacobs’ urban vitality theory, which was based on the observations of her New York City neighborhood in the mid-20th century. To examine the relationship between the residential built environment and walking activity, we used telephone survey data consisting of 1823 valid samples from across Seoul, a city characterized by a high population density and a well-established public transportation system. Respondents were asked questions about their residential location, their demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, and their walking activities. This study then used geographic information systems to measure objective indicators of built environment variables within 500-meter buffer areas based on the home addresses of the respondents. Then, this study constructed multilevel regression models with walking activity as the dependent variable. Our results indicated that walking activity is associated with Jacobs’ six conditions for urban vitality, including land use mix, density, block size, building age, accessibility, and border vacuums.     

道路环境对交通安全的影响及对策

交通安全,涉及到人、车以及道路和环境等很多因素。近年来,因为各种原因使得有关单位以及人员将更多的将精力放在人、车、道路这几个因素上,对道路交通环境没有过多的考虑和研究。深入研究道路交通环境,有利于道路交通的安全,文章通过对其的研究和分析,得出有关道路交通环境对交通安全的影响和解决措施,对于防止道路交通安全事故具有重要意义。同时为人们的生命财产的安全提供保障、对构建社会主义和谐社会具有很大帮助。     

深海超高压环境模拟容器裂纹评定

深海超高压环境模拟容器用于模拟水下压力环境,其容器壁上承受反复载荷,容易产生疲劳裂纹.疲劳裂纹扩展是影响其断裂的主要因素.本文旨在分析半椭圆裂纹在老化的深海超高压环境模拟容器中的扩展行为,评估容器的安全性,因此对材料20MnMoNb钢的裂纹扩展特性进行了试验研究,首先考虑三角形和梯形加载情况,通过比较两组实验结果,考察了其材料对保载时间的敏感性.采用基于统一的裂纹扩展率模型的三维有限元方法进行了疲劳裂纹扩展计算,并通过CT试样的一组数值和实验结果进行了验证,最后建立了不同初始尺寸、展弦比和倾角的裂纹有限元模型,并根据裂纹在容器内壁的容许深度准则,计算了容器的剩余寿命.其分析结果可为深海超高压环境模拟容器可靠性评估提供参考.     

城市综合体对社区居民出行行为影响研究

城市综合体作为一种高度复合的新型开发模式，通过改变社区建成环境，对居民日常活动产生了潜移默化的影响.本文从交通规划者视角，对城市综合体产生的社区居民出行行为影响进行了研究.基于问卷调查数据，通过倾向得分匹配预处理，弱化个人信息对于出行特征分析的干扰，以有城市综合体的社区居民自陈述的出行变化作拟纵向分析，初步把握城市综合体对社区居民出行特征产生的影响趋势.而后对有无城市综合体两类社区居民的出行数据进行对比分析.结果显示，城市综合体开发模式可有效促进居民产生更多的短距离慢行出行替代机动化长距离出行以满足弹性需求.本研究可为城市综合体区别于传统单一用地开发模式的交通系统配置提供方向指导.     

基于价值工程的全生命周期趸船材质方案比选研究

将趸船整个生命周期过程中的技术先进性、经济合理性和环境协调性有机地融合为一体,基于价值工程理论提出趸船材质方法比选。实例表明在千岛湖这样的大吨位船舶碰撞概率很小的水域,采用混凝土趸船明显优于钢质趸船。     

Promoting public bike-sharing: A lesson from the unsuccessful Pronto system

In 2014, Seattle implemented its own bike-sharing system, Pronto. However, the system ultimately ceased operation three years later on March 17th, 2017. To learn from this failure, this paper seeks to understand factors that encourage, or discourage, bike-sharing trip generation and attraction at the station level. This paper investigates the effects of land use, roadway design, elevation, bus trips, weather, and temporal factors on three-hour long bike pickups and returns at each docking station. To address temporal autocorrelations and the nonlinear seasonality, the paper implements a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) that incorporates the joint effects of a time metric and time-varying variables. The paper estimates models on total counts of pickups and returns, as well as pickups categorized by user types and by location. The results clarify that effects of hilly terrain and the rainy weather, two commonly perceived contributors to the failure. Additionally, results suggest that users in the University District, presumably mostly university students, tend to use shared bikes in neighborhoods with a higher household density and a higher percentage of residential land use, and make bike-sharing trips regardless workdays or non-workdays. The paper also contributes to the discussion on the relationship between public transportation service and bike-sharing. In general, users tend to use bike-sharing more at stations that have more scheduled bus trips nearby. However, some bike-sharing users may shift to bus services during peak hours and rainy weather. Several strategies are proposed accordingly to increase bike ridership in the future.     

软土地层盾尾注浆压力引起的地面隆起分析

目前已有盾尾注浆压力引起地面隆起的研究均假定盾尾注浆压力均匀分布,这与实际工程中盾尾注浆压力上小下大的形式不符。为更准确预测盾尾注浆压力引起的地面变形,在现有均匀注浆压力引起地面隆起分析的基础上,考虑软土地层盾构隧道施工中盾尾注浆压力上小下大的分布形式,将盾尾注浆对地层的压力效应视为半无限土体中柱形孔的扩张过程,利用镜像法和Mindlin解,推导出软土地层盾尾注浆压力引起的地面隆起计算公式,并通过工程实例,将本文解答、叶飞解答、林存刚经验公式解答、Vesic解答与数值解进行对比分析。结果表明:盾尾注浆压力引起的地面隆起横向曲线总体上呈高斯分布。在预测软土地层地面沉降时,忽视盾尾注浆压力引起的地面隆起是不合理的;用推导出的公式计算上小下大分布形式下盾尾注浆压力引起的地面沉降是可行的,Vesic公式和林存刚经验公式在应用时需要根据具体工程进行相应修正。     

中国TBM施工技术进展、挑战及对策

总结我国近30年来TBM设计与施工技术的发展历程,可归纳为以下5个阶段:1)研发探索和试用阶段;2)以国外施工承包商为主体,采用国外设计制造TBM施工我国隧道工程阶段;3)独立进行TBM招标采购和选型设计,并建立起自主的TBM施工队伍阶段;4)与国外厂家联合设计制造TBM,工程应用和自主施工快速发展阶段;5)实现TBM国产化,面向国内外TBM工程市场自主施工阶段。通过我国不同时期TBM施工的典型工程,介绍我国在复杂地质、大坡度、高海拔、不同直径、不同机型、超长隧洞TBM施工方面取得的经验、技术积累和业绩,展示我国TBM在穿越断层破碎带、软弱变形、岩爆、涌水等不良地质洞段取得的一系列施工新技术,以及最高月进尺1 868 m、平均月进尺超过600 m和掘进作业利用率超过40%的掘进技术水平。分析TBM在极硬岩、大断层破碎带、软弱大变形围岩、强岩爆围岩、涌水突泥洞段、高地热隧洞和超长隧洞工程中施工面临的风险和挑战,并提出一些相应的技术措施和对策,期望这些措施和对策在未来大量实际工程中进一步得到实践验证、优化和改进,不断积累和创新TBM设计与施工新技术。