Quantifying uncertainty in high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem models

Marine ecosystem models are becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated, and are being used to estimate the effects of future changes in the earth system with a view to informing important policy decisions. Despite their potential importance, far too little attention has been, and is generally, paid to model errors and the extent to which model outputs actually relate to real-world processes. With the increasing complexity of the models themselves comes an increasing complexity among model results. If we are to develop useful modelling tools for the marine environment we need to be able to understand and quantify the uncertainties inherent in the simulations. Analysing errors within highly multivariate model outputs, and relating them to even more complex and multivariate observational data, are not trivial tasks. Here we describe the application of a series of techniques, including a 2-stage self-organising map (SOM), non-parametric multivariate analysis, and error statistics, to a complex spatio-temporal model run for the period 1988–1989 in the Southern North Sea, coinciding with the North Sea Project which collected a wealth of observational data. We use model output, large spatio-temporally resolved data sets and a combination of methodologies (SOM, MDS, uncertainty metrics) to simplify the problem and to provide tractable information on model performance. The use of a SOM as a clustering tool allows us to simplify the dimensions of the problem while the use of MDS on independent data grouped according to the SOM classification allows us to validate the SOM. The combination of classification and uncertainty metrics allows us to pinpoint the variables and associated processes which require attention in each region. We recommend the use of this combination of techniques for simplifying complex comparisons of model outputs with real data, and analysis of error distributions.     

Planktonic community structure and carbon cycling in the Arabian Sea as a result of monsoonal forcing: the application of a generic model

The Arabian Sea exhibits a complex pattern of biogeochemical and ecological dynamics, which vary both seasonally and spatially. These dynamics have been studied using a one-dimensional vertical hydrodynamic model coupled to a complex ecosystem model, simulating the annual cycle at three contrasting stations. These stations are characterised by seasonally upwelling, mixed-layer-deepening and a-seasonal oligotrophic conditions, respectively, and coincide with extensively measured stations on the two JGOFS ARABESQUE cruises in 1994. The model reproduces many spatial and temporal trends in production, biomass, physical and chemical properties, both qualitatively and quantitatively and so gives insight into the main mechanisms responsible for the biogeochemical and ecological complexity. Monsoonal systems are typified by classical food web dynamics, whilst intermonsoonal and oligotrophic systems are dominated by the microbial loop. The ecosystem model (ERSEM), developed for temperate regions, is found to be applicable to the Arabian Sea system with little reparameterisation. Differences in in-situ physical forcing are sufficient to recreate contrasting eutrophic and oligotrophic systems, although the lack of lateral terms are probably the greatest source of error in the model. Physics, nutrients, light and grazing are all shown to play a role in controlling production and community structure. Small-celled phytoplanktons are predicted to be dominant and sub-surface chlorophyll maxima are robust centers of production during intermonsoon periods. Analysis of carbon fluxes indicate that physically driven outgassing of CO₂ predominates in monsoonal upwelling systems but ecological activity may significantly moderate CO₂ outgassing in the Arabian Sea interior.     

创新的中国高速铁路技术（下）

高速铁路是超大、复杂的系统工程。文章论述了中国铁路路情亟需发展高速铁路;通过博采众长,研究试验,构建创新的中国高速铁路技术体系;介绍了近期高速铁路建设的工程实践。     

船舶签证制度应予完善

人与自然的协调发展是一个大趋势,21世纪的中国将以更大的规模,在更广的领域走向海洋,发展海洋经济。海洋经济的发展离不开港口经济的依托,海洋经济和港口经济是相辅相成的。没有海洋经济也就谈不上21世纪的港口经济,没有港口经济也难以发展海洋经济。本文从我国海洋经济与港口经济现状出发,分析构筑海洋经济与港口经济发展的新体系,以供相互探讨。     

Generation of cyclonic eddies in the Eastern Gotland Basin of the Baltic Sea following dense water inflows: numerical experiments

A sigma (σ)-coordinate ocean model by Blumberg and Mellor (POM) is applied to study the formation processes of mesoscale cyclones observed in the Eastern Gotland Basin following the dense water inflows. The initial conditions simulate a situation when the Arkona and Bornholm basins and partially the Slupsk Furrow are already filled with the inflow water of the North Sea origin, while the Eastern Gotland and Gdansk basins still contain the old water of pre-inflow stratification. Model runs with constant and time-dependent winds, changing the buoyancy forcing, grid geometry and bottom topography display the following. Entering the Eastern Gotland Basin from the Slupsk Furrow, the bottom intrusion of saline inflow water splits in two: one goes northeast towards the Gotland Deep, and second moves southeast towards the Gulf of Gdansk. An intensive mesoscale cyclonic eddy carrying the inflow water is generated just east of the Slupsk Furrow with the inflow pulse. A number of smaller cyclones with boluses of the inflow water are formed in the permanent halocline along the saline intrusion pathway to the Gotland Deep. Following Spall and Price [J. Phys. Oceanogr. 28 (1998) 1598], the cyclones are suggested to form by the adjustment of the high potential vorticity inflow water column to a low potential vorticity environment.     

Sediment geochemistry and mineralogy in Milos bay, SW Kyklades, Aegean Sea, Greece

This work aims at studying the geochemistry and mineralogy of Milos bay surface sediments. The bay forms an enclosed marine area, supplied totally by volcanic formations. Totally 16 samples were subjected to sedimentological (grain size), mineralogical (microscope examination and X-ray diffraction of the bulk sample and the pelitic fraction), and geochemical analyses (X-ray fluorescence in the pelitic fraction). Also the carbonate content was determined. Sediments were sandy with a high carbonate content (14–58%). The dominant minerals recognized in the pelitic fraction were smectite, kaolinite and illite, followed by chlorite, quartz, calcite, Mg-calcite and feldspars. In general, element concentrations appeared to be within the normal range, except Pb and Zn, which exhibited relatively high values. The Index of Geoaccumulation I_geo was computed, in order to investigate a possible enrichment of the surface sediments in metals. The analysis revealed again high values of I_geo class for both Pb and Zn. A careful study of the area, in relation to the quality of the catchment basins petrology, lead to a non-anthropogenic origin of these high concentrations. The enrichment of the surface sediments in Pb and Zn is attributed to the weathering of several mineral deposits, pyroclastic rocks and lavas, covering almost all Milos vicinity. A study of the geochemical data correlation coefficient matrix revealed three major groups of elements: (i) the elements of detrital origin represented by Si, Al, K and a part of the metals; (ii) the carbonates group; and (iii) a Fe–Mn oxyhydroxides–oxides group, which attracts a part of Pb, Cr and Ni.     

浅谈中国传统文化对园林审美的影响

随着城市生活水平的提高,物质上的丰富已不能满足人们日常的需求,更多的人们开始重视精神生活,对环境的需求越来越高。在模仿西方景观规划设计的同时,传统文化仍对中国造园及审美产生根深蒂固的影响。该文着重阐述了中国哲学思想及人文思想对园林审美观的影响。     

Error quantification of a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem coastal-ocean model: Part 2. Chlorophyll-a, nutrients and SPM

Marine systems models are becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated, but far too little attention has been paid to model errors and the extent to which model outputs actually relate to ecosystem processes. Here we describe the application of summary error statistics to a complex 3D model (POLCOMS-ERSEM) run for the period 1988–1989 in the southern North Sea utilising information from the North Sea Project, which collected a wealth of observational data. We demonstrate that to understand model data misfit and the mechanisms creating errors, we need to use a hierarchy of techniques, including simple correlations, model bias, model efficiency, binary discriminator analysis and the distribution of model errors to assess model errors spatially and temporally. We also demonstrate that a linear cost function is an inappropriate measure of misfit. This analysis indicates that the model has some skill for all variables analysed. A summary plot of model performance indicates that model performance deteriorates as we move through the ecosystem from the physics, to the nutrients and plankton.     

中国船级社发展的体制和政策环境思考

中国船级社作为类行政组织在我国从计划经济向市场经济转轨时期具有重要地位和作用,在其发展中面临着来自体制改革、法制建设、风险责任、竞争与国际化进程和诚信观念等方面的困难与挑战;中国船级社应建立有限责任风险结构体系,进一步完善管理体制、运作机制和工作模式,适时调整业务结构,改革管理模式,实施规模经营战略。     

从世界主要港口的发展看中国港口物流的发展

从世界主要港口物流发展状况看当前港口物流发展的主要特点及趋势,进而提出目前中国港口物流发展中的不足,并提出相应对策。