Embedding risk attitude and decision weights in non-linear logit to accommodate time variability in the value of expected travel time savings

In recent years we have seen important extensions of logit models in behavioural research such as incorporation of preference and scale heterogeneity, attribute processing heuristics, and estimation of willingness to pay (WTP) in WTP space. With rare exception, however, a non-linear treatment of the parameter set to allow for behavioural reality, such as embedded risk attitude and perceptual conditioning of occurrence probabilities attached to specific attributes, is absent. This is especially relevant to the recent focus in travel behaviour research on identifying the willingness to pay for reduced travel time variability, which is the source of estimates of the value of trip reliability that has been shown to take on an increasingly important role in project appraisal. This paper incorporates, in a generalised non-linear (in parameters) logit model, alternative functional forms for perceptual conditioning (known as probability weighting) and risk attitude in the utility function to account for travel time variability, and then derives an empirical estimate of the willingness to pay for trip time variability-embedded travel time savings as an alternative to separate estimates of time savings and trip time reliability. We illustrate the richness of the approach using a stated choice data set for commuter choice between unlabelled attribute packages. Statistically significant risk attitude parameters and parameters underlying decision weights are estimated for multinomial logit and mixed multinomial logit models, along with values of expected travel time savings.     

模拟直流电动机

本章主要研究设计直流电动机的电路原理图.根据直流电动机的转速公式n=(U-IaRa)/CeΦ,对电动机和负载参数进行比例缩小,运用电路理论和电机拖动的相关知识,实现了电动机转速的可调.     

基座结构形式对艇体振动特性的影响研究

合理设计船体基座连接结构使其能够有效阻断振动波的传递,这对双层圆柱壳结构减振降噪具有重要的工程应用价值。基于波动理论,探索了有限尺度的"L"形和""形连接结构的波动特性,分析了结构边界对振动波传递的影响规律。以某一双层圆柱壳动力舱段为例,通过数值试验对比分析了不同基座结构连接形式对双层圆柱壳振动特性的影响规律。在此基础上开展了大尺度模型的振动试验测试,为基座连接结构声学设计提供了依据。试验结果表明:""形基座连接结构具有高传递损失特性,基座连接形式改进后双壳动力舱段10-1000Hz频段振动加速度级平均降低约3dB。     

三体船侧体位置优化设计研究

基于二维半理论的计算软件TRIMARAN研究了侧体纵向、横向位置的变化对三体船运动响应的影响,同时研究了船体横摇惯性半径对三体船横摇性能的影响,从而提出一套三体船侧体位置优化方案。通过在低速和高速两种情况下,对三体船侧体纵向、横向位置的变化对三体船的运动响应分析,可以看出:低航速下侧体应布置于靠近主体船艏的位置,有利于三体船运动性能的提升,高航速下则应将侧体放置于主体船尾。同时,根据横摇惯性半径对三体船横摇性能的影响研究表明:三体船的横摇半径越小越能增加三体船的横摇稳定性。     

数模混合电路故障诊断新方法

在基于DES理论的电路测试中,最小测试集的求取一直是重点和难点。该文提出了一种基于网络撕裂法和图论法相结合的算法来求取最小测试集。通过网络撕裂法将大规模的电路分割为小规模数字电路部分和模拟电路部分,然后再分别对其使用图论法来求取各自的最小测试集,最后整合得到电路的最小测试集。该方法计算量小、诊断定位精度高,适合于工程应用。     

基于D-S证据理论的海战场目标战术意图识别技术研究

目标战术意图识别技术是海战场态势评估领域的一个核心内容,也是威胁估计的基础。根据舰艇指挥决策中的海战场态势评估的需要,提取目标战术意图识别所需要素,然后运用高维空间相似度计算模型,度量目标状态对其意图的支撑程度,最后结合D-C证据理论对目标战术意图进行序贯识别,通过实例验证,取得了较好的效果。该方法能够为解决海战场目标战术意图识别提供新的途径。     

基于复合预测控制的并联有源电力滤波器研究

通过建立线性预测数学模型,分析了线性预测的不稳定性和差一拍控制对谐波补偿输出的影响,提出了将线性预测与记录一周期谐波电流采样点作为后续预测电流相复合的无差拍控制,消除了采样与计算延时对系统的影响。仿真结果表明,平均滤波器应用于ip-iq谐波电流检测算法中,谐波检测精度较高、响应速度较快;采用复合无差拍控制,对谐波抑制与无功补偿有较好的稳态精度和动态响应速度。在整体上提高了并联有源电力滤波器的谐波抑制与无功补偿性能。     

钢桁梁悬索桥抖振响应及其影响参数分析

钢桁梁是双层桥面悬索桥及峡谷地区悬索桥常用的加劲梁形式,该类加劲梁构件众多、阻风面积大,在脉动风荷载作用下的抖振响应非常显著。采用Davenport抖振频域方法对某钢桁梁悬索桥的顺风向、横风向及扭转方向的抖振响应进行分析。抖振有限元频域分析表明:抖振位移主要由加劲梁各方向的1阶振动模态控制,高阶模态的参与效应可以忽略;对于抖振加速度,高阶模态有较大贡献。进一步研究了定常及非定常自激气动力形式对气动阻尼的影响,结果表明准定常自激力描述竖向及侧向模态的气动阻尼具有足够的精度,但描述扭转模态的气动阻尼还存在很大的近似性。     

Sanders中长圆柱壳理论及其在海洋工程中的应用(英文)

The cylindrical shell is one of the main structural parts in ocean engineering structures.These cylinders are mostly of medium length,which means that the radius of the cross section is significantly smaller than the length of the cylindrical shell.From the viewpoint of the shell theory,they belong to the mid-long cylindrical shell category.To solve mechanical problems on this kind of structure,especially a cracked cylindrical shell,analysis based on shell theory is necessary.At present the generally used solving system for the mid-long cylindrical shell is too complicated,difficult to solve,and inapplicable to engineering.This paper introduced the Sanders’ mid-long cylindrical shell theory which reduces the difficulty of the solution process,and will be suitable for solving problems with complicated boundary conditions.On this basis,the engineering applications of this theory were discussed in conjunction with the problem of a mid-long cylindrical shell having a circumferential crack.The solution process is simple,and the closed form solution can usually be found.In practical engineering applications,it gives satisfactory precision.     

双层圆柱壳典型基座振动波传递特性优化分析

采用波动分析法,根据不均质结构中的阻抗特性和波型转换,分析振动噪声在典型双层壳结构中的传递特性。以此为切入点,采用有限元/边界元(FEM/BEM)耦合法分析人为构造的传递损失基座的减振降噪性能。通过对组合板振动波的传递特性的分析可以得出,当定常结构发生突变时,结构阻抗也会随之发生变化,导致结构之间的阻抗失配,从而使得振动波在突变截面处发生反射和透射,降低振动波的传递效率,阻隔振动波能量向下游结构传递。然后,据此理论设计了传递损失基座,并用有限元/边界元耦合法验证了传递损失基座的减振降噪性能。