日本交通安全对策的借鉴与启示

尽管日本的机动车保有量和交通事故数量高于我国,但日本交通事故死亡人数远远低于我国。论文在综合介绍日本道路交通安全对策的基础上,将交通事故发生数量和交通事故造成的死亡数量与日本的乘用车保有量进行回归分析,并以虚拟变量的形式考虑了交通安全相关对策对交通事故量和死亡人数的影响。从分析结果可以看出,交通事故的发生量和死亡人数与乘用车的保有量有很大相关性,但是交通安全的相关对策对交通事故的降低和死亡人数的减少有重大影响,这对我国交通安全管理措施的制定和完善提供了积极的借鉴和启示。     

Evaluation of safety and environmental risk at individual ship and company level

Whereas current risk profiling methods used in the maritime sector largely rely on detention risk, we extend them by considering various risk dimensions and by evaluating a wide range of risk factors including pollution and damage costs. Risk factors include ship particulars such as vessel type and the nature of companies and owners, as well as historical information on past accidents, inspections, and changes of particulars. We present methods to summarize and visualize the various risk dimensions paying particular attention to the identification of potentially risky companies. The results are obtained by combining unique data sets with information on ship arrivals, inspections, and accidents covering 2006-2010.     

Competing risks analysis on traffic accident duration time

Different clearance methods in traffic accident management lead to varied duration distributions. Apart from investigating the influence of various factors associated with accidents on the duration of such accidents using different clearance methods, this study also examines the cumulative incidence probability. We used traffic accident data obtained for 12 months from the Fourth Ring Expressway main line in Beijing to develop a subdistribution hazard regression model, which can assess the risk factors of two clearance methods. The regression results show that the different factors have statistically significant effects on the duration of two accident groups with different clearance methods; furthermore, opposite effects occur even for some factors that have a strong effect on both accident groups. For example, an accident involving a taxi extends the duration time with clearance method 1; in comparison, the accident is shorter with clearance method 2. The predicted cumulative incidence curves of the two types of clearance methods are shown as examples, with stratification based on the influence factors (taxi involved, season). Finally, the Gray test of the cumulative incidence functions and the log‐rank test of the Kaplan–Meier estimates of the survival functions are compared, in order to demonstrate the importance of using proper methods for analyses. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

潜艇的实效周向伴流

单轴潜艇的实效周向伴流应被考虑。本文提出了潜艇实效周向伴流的确定和功率的算法。     

道路交通事故分析及预防对策

道路交通事故的预防是一个系统工程,通过对全国和新疆道路交通安全现状与道路交通事故原因的对比分析,分别从影响道路交通安全的人、车、路及环境四个方面提出了降低和预防道路交通事故的发生,确保行车安全的相应措施和建议。     

机动车公路隧道交通事故分析

公路隧道交通事故往往造成人员伤亡、车辆损毁、交通堵塞等严重后果,随着我国公路隧道数量及里程的不断增加,其交通安全问题已引起重视.采用图解法分析公路隧道道路与环境特征、公路隧道交通事故的特点、交通事故的季节分布、机动车辆的碰撞方式及影响因素,并从公路隧道的设计施工、路面质量、交通标志与标线、车辆的维护保养及合理使用、提高驾驶员自身素质等方面提出提高公路隧道安全行使和预防交通事故发生的措施.     

基于遗传优化支持向量机的交通事故预测

针对道路交通事故的预测问题,引入基于遗传优化支持向量机算法建立交通事故预测模型。利用遗传算法寻找支持向量机的最优参数组合,并用最优参数构建相应的支持向量机预测模型。仿真计算结果表明,基于遗传算法优化支持向量机模型优于传统的SVM模型,从而可以更有效地对道路交通事故进行预测。     

潜艇空间强机动操纵安全性仿真计算与分析

随着潜艇技术的发展,研究潜艇空间强机动的运动特性、操纵控制方法和战术运用,已成为提高潜艇作战能力和生存能力亟待解决的课题.依据潜艇操纵性理论,采用潜艇空间六自由度运动方程为仿真数学模型,对某型潜艇进行空间强机动时的操纵安全性进行了仿真分析,研究了潜艇强机动的操纵控制措施和方法.     

我国客车安全综述

近年来,我国客车安全事故已经成为严重的安全问题。主动安全和被动安全技术在客车中的广泛运用可以减少事故的发生和减轻事故的伤害。安全客车可以大幅提升综合交通安全指标。在客车安全中尚有许多值得深入研究的领域,如客车安全相关法规、客车车体结构、客车CAE工作和安全车身的制作等。因为客车安全问题严重,故安全客车会有很好的发展前景。     

基于地铁施工安全事故统计规律的致险因素关系研究

地铁施工中作业环境复杂、风险因素多样,致使地铁施工事故频发.文章通过统计2001年 —2019年的国内地铁施工事故案例,分析事故特征和发生规律.在此基础上,针对不同事故类型采用鱼骨图分析法辨识出潜在致险因素,并研究致险因素之间的关系.