Evolution of the household vehicle fleet: Anticipating fleet composition, PHEV adoption and GHG emissions in Austin, Texas

In today’s world of volatile fuel prices and climate concerns, there is little study on the relationship between vehicle ownership patterns and attitudes toward vehicle cost (including fuel prices and feebates) and vehicle technologies. This work provides new data on ownership decisions and owner preferences under various scenarios, coupled with calibrated models to microsimulate Austin’s personal-fleet evolution.Opinion survey results suggest that most Austinites (63%, population-corrected share) support a feebate policy to favor more fuel efficient vehicles. Top purchase criteria are price, type/class, and fuel economy. Most (56%) respondents also indicated that they would consider purchasing a Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) if it were to cost $6000 more than its conventional, gasoline-powered counterpart. And many respond strongly to signals on the external (health and climate) costs of a vehicle’s emissions, more strongly than they respond to information on fuel cost savings.Twenty five-year simulations of Austin’s household vehicle fleet suggest that, under all scenarios modeled, Austin’s vehicle usage levels (measured in total vehicle miles traveled or VMT) are predicted to increase overall, along with average vehicle ownership levels (both per household and per capita). Under a feebate, HEVs, PHEVs and Smart Cars are estimated to represent 25% of the fleet’s VMT by simulation year 25; this scenario is predicted to raise total regional VMT slightly (just 2.32%, by simulation year 25), relative to the trend scenario, while reducing CO₂ emissions only slightly (by 5.62%, relative to trend). Doubling the trend-case gas price to $5/gallon is simulated to reduce the year-25 vehicle use levels by 24% and CO₂ emissions by 30% (relative to trend).Two- and three-vehicle households are simulated to be the highest adopters of HEVs and PHEVs across all scenarios. The combined share of vans, pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles (SUVs), and cross-over utility vehicles (CUVs) is lowest under the feebate scenario, at 35% (versus 47% in Austin’s current household fleet). Feebate-policy receipts are forecasted to exceed rebates in each simulation year.In the longer term, gas price dynamics, tax incentives, feebates and purchase prices along with new technologies, government-industry partnerships, and more accurate information on range and recharging times (which increase customer confidence in EV technologies) should have added effects on energy dependence and greenhouse gas emissions.     

城市交通与城市空间结构演变

通过回顾城市交通和城市空间结构的发展演变过程，研究城市交通引导城市空间结构健康“生长”的有效途径，提出通过公共交通引导城市可持续发展的模式，以及适合中国特色的和谐城市形态和城市交通。     

非一致地震激励下大跨度斜拉桥空间响应分析

基于二维相干非一致激励功率谱模型，采用随机过程理论关于幅值、相位与功率谱的关系式，根据场地地震危险性评价和设计地震动参数合成人工地震波，考虑波动传播效应和多点激励效应，分析了某座跨长江的大跨度斜拉桥在地震激励下的空间非线性响应特性，计算了桥梁结构关键部位在地震力作用下的响应特性，并与一致激励下对应响应量进行比较。认为非一致激励下大跨斜拉桥关键部位的某些响应粱大幅增加。反应了进行非一致响应分析的必要性。     

时间多项式进化算法在旅行商问题中的研究

提出了一种模拟生物遗传的进化算法，并将该算法应用于旅行商问题得到了较好的结果，根据达尔文进化论的优化过程，结合自然选择原则提出了启发式算法，该算法的时间复杂性与快速排序策略相当。在文中利用该算法求解中国旅行商问题得到目前的最佳结果。     

The effect of the competition between cars and trucks on the evolution of the motorway transport system

Motorways, which were devised at the beginning of their history as dedicated roads intended to be traveled by cars only, are at present also traveled by considerable flows of trucks. This fact has deeply changed the motorway transport system with respect to its original conception, owing to the interactions between two categories of vehicles whose characteristics are very different. These interactions greatly increase the transport cost perceived by car drivers with respect to truck drivers. This paper studies the consequences of this cost asymmetry on the evolution of the transport system when the geometric characteristics of a motorway remain unchanged in time, while transport demand increases. By using a theoretical model of competition between cars and trucks, it is shown that, if both the geometric characteristics of a motorway and the increase rate of the activities that feed the transport demand remain unchanged over time, the competition between cars and trucks, as well as the fact that in general passengers have better transport alternatives than freight, make the increase rate of truck traffic greater than that of cars, causing a progressive increase in the proportion of trucks in the time periods in which a motorway is traveled by both the vehicle categories. Since truck traffic on motorways, at least in Europe, is very scarce on weekends and in holiday periods, in which motorways are traveled almost only by cars, these results seem to indicate a tendency to the specialization of motorways, which are likely to be used in the future mostly by only one category of vehicles in different periods of time.     

西江三滩河床演变分析

在充分分析现有的多年实测资料的基础上,对梧州—郁南河段总体演变趋势进行分析,重点对西江出浅的三滩河段从横断面变化、深泓线变化、洲滩变化等进行了较为全面的河床演变分析,初步得出了成滩的原因,并据此定性确定了三滩各滩滩性,提出了该滩段的整治思路,旨在为航道整治方案的确定提供参考。     

基于性能演变的水性环氧沥青开普封层施工方法优化

为进一步提升水性环氧沥青开普封层使用品质，针对水性环氧沥青开普封层施工现存问题，借助有机玻璃界面状态图像观测与层间剪切试验，研究了不同固化状态下碎石封层黏结性能，提出了水性环氧沥青碎石封层两阶段分步式压实方法；系统分析了微表处摊铺时机对碎石封层沥青-碎石黏附与层间黏结性能的影响程度，探究了微表处开放交通时间与交通荷载对开普封层结构强度与表面功能的影响规律，确定了水性环氧沥青微表处最佳摊铺时机与开放交通条件；最终优化了水性环氧沥青开普封层施工方法，推荐了最佳施工参数与时机。结果表明：有机玻璃界面状态图像观测方法可快速、准确评价水性环氧沥青碎石封层的黏结防水状态，其结果与宏观试验一致。两阶段分步式压实方法能够有效提高水性环氧沥青开普封层层间黏结性能，增幅达14.29%以上，具体流程为：碎石封层摊铺后，立即采用前期轻微压实工艺进行碾压1次，待碎石封层养生至表干与实干之间时，采用后期标准压实工艺再碾压1次。基于碎石封层性能演变规律，可得微表处最佳摊铺时机为：碎石封层处于表干与实干状态之间。基于开普封层性能演变规律及交通荷载影响，可得最佳开放交通条件为：微表处摊铺后常温（25℃）持续养生1~1.5 h，适度开放交通，约2 h后完全开放。研究结果可为水性环氧沥青开普封层品质管控提供科学依据与理论支持。     

基于改进的统一疲劳裂纹扩展速率模型的表面裂纹扩展规律预报

很多学者对表面裂纹形状变化规律进行了研究,但是理论上仍存在较大缺陷,因此现有方法预报结果的准确性有待考察。文章作者们提出了一个改进的统一疲劳裂纹扩展速率模型,本模型合理考虑了材料的非线性效应和裂纹前缘的三维约束效应及三维约束大小在前缘各点的分布函数。通过引入等效厚度的概念及法线方向扩展的假定较好地考虑了裂纹前缘各点对扩展之后形状比变化规律的影响,预报得到的裂纹前缘形状能够观察到明显的边界点扩展滞后现象,同时本模型预报结果与试验结果及传统模型预报结果进行了比较,证明本模型提高了表面裂纹扩展规律预报的精度。     

非理想条件下三轴磁通门传感器误差修正方法

三轴磁通门传感器应用较为广泛,但非正交误差和非水平误差影响了三轴磁通门传感器的磁场测量精度.根据三轴磁通门传感器测量原理,分析了非理想条件下与理想条件下磁场转化矩阵关系.为消除三轴磁通门传感器中非正交误差和非水平误差的影响,建立了以磁场转化矩阵参数为自变量的优化模型.采用全局优化能力强、寻优效率高的微分进化算法求解该优化模型,求得磁场转化矩阵参数即可实现非正交误差和非水平误差的同时修正.三轴磁通门传感器误差修正实验表明,该方法在一定程度上可有效消除三轴磁通门传感器中非正交误差和非水平误差的影响,对提高三轴磁通门传感器磁场测量精度具有重要意义.     

降雨对滑坡体发育稳态趋势的演变分析

基于滑坡体结构发展趋势的链式原理,建立起滑坡为结构体的模型并进行理论分析。滑坡属于地质力学的范畴,建立适当的力学结构模型,进行理论上的应力应变分析。通过灾害链式理论的指导,具体分析降雨对滑坡体发育的链式过程,发现滑坡体发展趋势,并通过有限元进行模拟,推测滑坡体稳定的极限状态,在降雨发生情况下,判断滑坡体是否处于稳定或即将出现滑坡提供理论参考。