Impact of Everyday Weather on Individual Daily Travel Behaviours in Perspective: A Literature Review

Despite the hundreds of billions of dollars being spent on infrastructure development -- from roads, rail and airports to energy extraction and power networks to the Internet -- surprisingly little reliable knowledge exists about the performance of these investments in terms of actual costs, benefits and risks. This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost performance in transport infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 258 projects in 20 nations worth approximately US$90 billion (constant 1995 prices). The paper shows with overwhelming statistical significance that in terms of costs transport infrastructure projects do not perform as promised. The conclusion is tested for different project types, different geographical regions and different historical periods. Substantial cost escalation is the rule rather than the exception. For rail, average cost escalation is 45% (SD=38), for fixed links (tunnels and bridges) it is 34% (62) and for roads 20% (30). Cost escalation appears a global phenomenon, existing across 20 nations on five continents. Cost estimates have not improved and cost escalation not decreased over the past 70 years. Cost estimates used in decision-making for transport infrastructure development are highly, systematically and significantly misleading. Large cost escalations combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial risks. However, such risks are typically ignored or underplayed in decision-making, to the detriment of social and economic welfare.     

隧道长距离独头施工通风设备选型探讨

良好的施工通风是长大隧道工程安全施工的前提,也是施工进度和工程质量的保障。以长大隧道独头施工通风方案节能环保理念为基点,通过对通风管的性能参数分析,得出施工通风风管选型对通风能耗及风机选型的影响,进而揭示出施工通风设备选型及运行过程中的经济成本问题。分析结论表明:1)选择优质的通风管,避免对国外风机的盲目推崇,是当前施工通风中应值得重视的问题;2)与国内大型风机、风管生产企业联合,生产优质的国产隧道施工通风专用设备,使隧道施工综合技术、经济指标更为合理,是实现节能、环保的有效途径。     

基于粗糙集的相邻交叉口信号控制方法研究

复杂交通区域的交通状况难以利用具体模型直接描述,而粗糙集理论能够在分析大量经验数据的基础上找到用于决策的规则。以交大东路上的行人和机动车为研究对象,提出一种基于粗糙集的信号配时算法,对交大东路上的两个相邻交叉口的信号灯进行控制,提出控制规则,对该复杂交通区域进行优化和疏导,是对多交叉口交通管理与控制的一次有益尝试。     

舰艇干扰因素对速度匹配传递对准性能的影响

结合工程应用中的实际问题,模拟实船干扰因素情况,采用理论和仿真分析相结合的方法,研究了船体变形、舰船运动、基准信息跳变等对舰载武器速度匹配传递对准性能的影响。结果表明:1)速度匹配传递对准不易受船体变形影响;2)舰船航向机动有助于提高速度匹配传递对准性能,舰船在匀速直航状态下,方位姿态角对准精度2′左右,等效北向陀螺漂移的估计精度能达到80%,无法估计等效东向陀螺漂移和加速度计零偏;舰船在转弯状态下武器惯导各误差量估计精度和估计速度都有所提高,能够估计等效东向陀螺漂移和加速度计零偏,估计精度达90%以上;3)基准信息跳变会干扰速度匹配传递对准性能,引起姿态角估计误差。     

改进的属性约简算法及其在决策树中的应用

针对传统的基于区分矩阵属性约简算法在构建区分矩阵时生成很多冗余元素,空间和时间性能上不够理想的缺点,利用动态数组及新的约简过程进一步改进,最后把新的属性约简算法应用到决策树的构建上,实验证明,该算法能够提高决策树分类性能.     

高地应力软岩隧道施工变形控制方法试验研究

为了研究高地应力软岩隧道施工变形控制方法,以兰渝铁路木寨岭隧道为例,通过对超前导洞法与三台阶法进行现场试验,分析了2种施工方法在高地应力软岩地层的变形控制效果,总结了三台阶法施工各阶段的围岩变形规律,主要结论为： 1）超前导洞法与三台阶法施工,隧道中台阶是变形控制的重点; 2）2种方法对高地应力软岩大变形总体控制效果相近,应结合其施工效率进行比选; 3）隧道开挖后应及早施作仰拱,这对控制隧道变形极为有利。     

基于元胞自动机的轨道交通突发客流拥堵消散演化机理研究

为保证城市轨道交通运输系统在突发客流条件下能够安全高效运营，本文基于元胞自动机建立城市轨道交通突发客流拥堵传播模型.分析突发客流量拥堵传播过程，采用状态参数集反映车站拥挤程度的多样化差异，定义更为准确合理的客流量元胞自动机演化规则.以成都市轨道交通部分线网为例，仿真设置不同量值的突发客流，研究线网客流状态的演化规律.结果表明，随着突发客流量增加，客流状态从区域拥堵演化至线拥堵的速度减缓，从线拥堵演化至点拥堵的速度保持不变或略有加快.此外，大量突发客流会引起拥堵消散速度的减缓，造成更大时空范围的区域性拥堵.     

Wave climate evolution in the Bay of Biscay over two decades

As a background, a review of long term evolution of wave climate in the North Atlantic is discussed. Most studies show that interannual evolutions in wave heights may be related to climatic factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation Index for example.Data of a waverider, consisting of a time series of 20 years in the Bay of Biscay (off Biscarosse, France), are analysed. Based on these data obtained from 1980, wave heights tend to decrease over the period. Also, interannual evolutions exist, particularly in the wave period. The fact that the annual wave periods at Biscarosse are found to vary more significantly than the annual wave heights led us to assume that it is an indirect effect of the evolution in the location of generating storms relative to the buoy. The relationships between wave parameters and climatic factors such as the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and the Garonne discharge have been derived: they show that the NAO index is negatively correlated with the river discharge and positively correlated with the wave period. This result is in agreement with the general climate scheme associated with NAO cycle proposed by Kushnir et al. [Kushnir, Y., Cardone, V.J., Cane, M., 1995. Link between Atlantic climate variability of surface wave height and sea level pressure. Proc. Fourth Int. Workshop on Wave Incasting and forecasting, Banff, AB, Canada, 59–64.]: NAO+ shifts storm tracks northward and dry weather are encountered in the southern part of Europe (conversely NAO− brings storm tracks and rainfall closer). Concerning wave heights, the lack of dependence on NAO index may be associated with compensation effects between wind intensity and storm tracks: wave energy is partly dissipated while reaching the Bay of Biscay in case of severe but distant storms (NAO+), which is not the case for storms generated nearer to the buoy and associated with moderate westerly winds (NOA−). However, the reason of the decrease in wave heights is not clear.     

基于统计原理的铁路隧道运营期灾害类型及防灾对策研究

统计分析了83例国内外铁路隧道运营期事故资料,研究了铁路隧道运营期间主要灾害类型、原因及防灾对策。研究结果表明:1)铁路隧道运营期间主要灾害类型有火灾、列车碰撞、脱轨及衬砌剥落;2)铁路隧道运营期防灾应以隧道火灾为重点,同时兼顾列车碰撞、脱轨和隧道衬砌混凝土剥落等灾害;3)隧道内旅客列车火灾的主要原因为列车车辆关键部位故障、人为因素、列车车辆缺陷致列车碰撞或脱轨;4)依据土建设施规模及隧道结构分布特点,长大铁路隧道(群)运营期防灾模式可选择定点停车疏散救援模式、全长或局部范围内随机停车疏散救援模式;5)铁路隧道防灾涉及基础设施、铁道车辆和运输调度,应建立铁路隧道运营期灾害防范体系及预警系统,防止事故发生。