Are AIS-based trade volume estimates reliable? The case of crude oil exports

Most global trade statistics in the public domain refer to official customs data, which are not generally available on a micro (individual cargo) level. With the increasing availability and completeness of ship positioning data from the global Automated Identification System (AIS), it is possible to derive more timely and detailed trade statistics for homogeneous commodity groups. The objective of this article is twofold: (1) to compare the accuracy of AIS-derived trade statistics to official customs data in the crude oil market and (2) to add a breakdown of trade by vessel size over time. We find that while AIS-derived data for seaborne crude exports show good alignment with official export numbers in aggregate, there are substantial temporal and geographical differences across countries and time due to the use of pipelines and transshipment in parts of the supply chain. We highlight the challenges in properly structuring and aggregating micro-level cargo data. Our findings are important for the proper derivation of shipping demand from trade data.     

长江小油船的污染及其防治

通过对小油船造成油污染途经和在防污染方面存在问题的分析,提出长江小油船的油污染防治手段与对策。     

"4·23"海上外轮非法过驳事件带来的启示

本文通过对"4·23"海上外轮非法过驳作业事件的跟踪,分析海上非法过驳作业存在的安全隐患,考察相关立法对海上过驳作业的规定及存在的问题,并从源头管理、制度建设、监管能力建设等方面提出液货船舶海上过驳管理建议。     

基于Excel-Mars2000-Isight平台的油船中横剖面结构尺寸优化

散货船和油船共同结构规范(CSR)规定了船体梁总纵强度、局部强度、屈曲强度、疲劳强度等要求。目前,对油船中横剖面结构尺寸优化的研究较多,但设计约束条件通常比较简单,较少考虑CSR中的多种约束条件和载荷,因此优化结果的实用性有待商榷。由于CSR规范条文较繁琐且不断更新,考虑利用船级社规范校核软件进行符合描述性要求的规范计算,在通用优化平台Isight中集成Mars2000软件,实现剖面尺寸自动优化。根据上述优化思路和流程,开发了基于Excel-Mars2000-Isight平台的油船中横剖面结构优化工具。     

Valuing cargo flexibility in oil transportation

The seaborne oil transportation market is served by two main types of vessels—crude oil tankers and product tankers. Product tankers are designed to move refined oil products, yet they can also opportunistically carry ‘dirty’ products such as crude and heavy fuel oil, subject to the cost of tank cleaning when re-entering the clean products trade. We apply an entry-exit real option model with a stochastic freight rate differential to derive optimal triggers for switching between the two cargo types and estimate the value of the switching option. We show that the value of active switching has grown over time, and generally exceeds the additional construction cost of a product tanker. Our findings are important both from a practical point of view and for our understanding of market integration in the tanker freight market. Specifically, shipowners can use our model as a basis for optimizing chartering policy for clean product tankers. We also show that there are periods where the dirty market is persistently stronger, and discuss the possible reasons for such apparent inefficiencies.     

基于IMO标准的船用耐蚀钢应用技术研究综述

2010年5月国际海事组织(IMO)通过的《原油船货油舱保护涂层性能标准》和《原油船货油舱替代防腐措施性能标准》于2014年1月1日强制执行,鉴于日本在这方面有一定的技术优势,其正在中国设置专利障碍,船用耐蚀钢的国产化成为极为紧迫的一项任务。船用耐蚀钢的研发不仅关系我国船舶行业的发展问题,而且对我国船舶行业提升产业水平和国际竞争力有很大的影响。国产船用耐蚀钢的研制将有效打破国外耐蚀钢技术对我国钢铁、船舶行业造成的技术壁垒。本文基于IMO相关标准,以油船货油舱为研究对象,就国内外船用耐蚀钢耐蚀性、焊接性能等研究方面进行归类总结。探索船用耐蚀钢的应用技术的推广发展与前景。     

浅谈VLCC的发展前景和意义

随着世界石油储量逐渐减少,越来越多的国家开始面临石油危机问题,这使得各国加快储备可用石油,增进对新能源的研究开发.然而,新能源开发需要一个漫长的过程,石油的储备在很长一段时间内会一直是各国争相竞争的宠儿.作为拥有32 000 km海岸线的中国,如何在激烈的石油竞争中拔得头筹,成为保障未来发展需要考虑的重要问题.