具有模糊特性变量的出行方式预测Logit模型

基于非集计模型与模糊数学理论,以城市群居民出行行为为研究对象,选择出行者的出行时间和出行费用作为影响因素,利用极大似然估计法进行参数标定,通过t检验、命中率检验与优度检验,将出行时间模糊化,忽略出行费用的影响,建立了具有模糊特性变量的出行方式预测Logit模型。将轨道交通与小汽车2种出行方式的时间模糊化参数分别选为0.1、0.3、0.5,分析了出行方式与出行时间对居民出行行为的影响。分析结果表明:轨道交通与小汽车的平均出行感知时间之比为0.8～1.2,且2种出行感知时间同等程度变化;当轨道交通出行时间模糊化参数为0.1,小汽车出行时间小于70min时,出行者均选择轨道交通出行;当轨道交通出行时间模糊化参数为0.3,小汽车出行时间小于67min时,出行者继续选择轨道交通出行,但当小汽车出行时间大于67min,小汽车出行时间模糊化参数分别为0.1、0.3时,出行者选择小汽车出行;当轨道交通出行时间模糊化参数为0.5,小汽车出行时间小于58min时,出行者仍然选择轨道交通出行,但当小汽车出行时间大于66min时,出行者均选择小汽车出行。     

行动导向的任务教学法在物流设施设备运用课程中的应用与反思

行动导向教学能够提供培养学生具备“完整的行动”和“综合的职业能力”一个适宜的教学平台。根据教学法的特点,结合课程性质,将行动导向的任务教学法应用于物流设施设备运用等实践技能专业课程教学中,对于践行新的人才培养方案、提高教学质量、培养新型高端技能型人才,具有一定的实效。     

中国城市职住均衡实证分析与关键对策

居住与就业岗位、居住区生活设施配套以及公共设施的空间配置决定了城市居民出行总量和出行距离,即职住均衡是缓解城市交通拥堵的源头管理措施。首先提出职住混合度、职住均衡度两个评价指标及其计算方法,并对辽阳市和齐齐哈尔市两个案例城市进行量化分析;结果表明,城市职住分布对居民出行距离有显著影响,相似的城市规模下,职住均衡良好的城市居民平均出行距离较短。在此基础上,分析职住均衡的主要影响因素及其影响规律,并阐述了生态城市单元与职住均衡的关系。最后,提出促进职住均衡面临的主要问题和关键对策。     

北京市老年人出行调查与分析

在当今人口老龄化背景下,为了解老年人的生活及出行状况、提高老年人的生活质量,对北京市60岁以上部分老年人进行出行调查。调查包括一日出行情况、个人家庭基本属性、主要日常活动、出行意愿四项内容。通过调查分析得出北京市老年人的总体出行特征和不同属性的老年人出行特征,老年人主要日常活动的活动频率、空间分布、时间分布特征及主要出行方式,日常出行所面临的困难及改进老年人出行环境应关注的事项。     

有轨电车系统规划设计研究

当前中国有轨电车系统的规划与设计缺少相应的技术规范和标准,规划设计的方法和内容主要参照地铁、轻轨系统开展,而有轨电车系统特征、功能特性及相关技术标准与地铁、轻轨系统存在较大差异。首先明确有轨电车系统的内涵,由此提出其规划设计的基本思路。在此基础上探讨有轨电车系统的功能定位及适用性,并针对不同功能提出相应的网络布局要点;详细阐述有轨电车系统的线路、车站和沿线道路设施的规划设计要点。     

Marine and coastal protected areas in Latin America: A preliminary assessment

Abstract

One approach to the management of coastal and marine areas is the establishment of protected areas (e.g., reserves, parks, sanctuaries). Under the general rubric of “marine reserves,”; this paper examines the Latin American experience with this strategy. A comprehensive table lists most, if not all, national or state declared parks or reserves. The table is organized by country. All Latin American nations have, to a varying extent, declared marine parks and protected areas. The authors review the sources or uses which have been “managed”; by marine reserves, the management approaches, uses, and problem which have been identified in achieving management objectives. The authors conclude with observations about the potential future utility of marine reserves as a management approach for areas and resources of the coastal and littoral zones of Latin America.     

Land use implications of sea level rise: A case study at myrtle beach,South Carolina

Abstract

the prospect of global warming and consequent sea level rise will have important implications for coastal communities. this article examines the land use implications of alternate sea level rise scenarios on the city of myrtle beach, south carolina. current trends as well as high and low sea level rise scenarios are superimposed on the city's beach profile and near shore contours to estimate the type and value of land development likely to be impacted.

It is found that losses associated with accelerated sea level rise would be particularly high in the city's hotel district and that overall property loss could range from 21 to 60% of the city's total property value. to lessen these potential losses, coastal communities such as myrtle beach must choose among one of three policy options including: (1) barricade the beach, (2) raise the land, and (3) implement a strategic retreat. specific alternatives within each of these options are explored in turn. the article concludes that successful development plans will incorporate ground rules sensitive to and consistent with dynamic coastal processes.     

Bridging the Gap in Planning Indoor Pedestrian Facilities

Abstract

Pedestrians are currently attracting the interest of various researchers and practitioners, particularly urban and transport planners. Analysis of the pedestrian behavior, environment and modeling has been carried out in diverse instances in the context of pedestrian planning. This paper seeks to identify the content of each of these three research areas and designate the linkages that connect their interests providing insights into planning indoor pedestrian facilities. To achieve this objective, a review of the literature on pedestrians walking indoors and indoor pedestrian environments was conducted. Understanding pedestrian behavior is fundamental in the pedestrian planning process. Principles of decision-making, cognition, wayfinding and flows were studied. When analyzing the pedestrian environment, Space Syntax and wayfinding analysis were found to be established methods that are an integral part of this field. Finally, the majority of the existing modeling approaches were identified. It was found that despite the dynamic evolution of each area, the integration of different research perspectives is weak. The paper concluded with the proposal of a mindmap which brings together all the concepts found in the literature and which should be explored for a more comprehensive planning of indoor pedestrian facilities.     

Statistical mechanics for analytic planning: an application to domestic air traffic in China

Abstract

Statistical mechanics has shown its usefulness when assessing the topology of many networks, including those of infrastructure. Its principles take into account the large-scale and network-wide effects of changes in its key parameters, which in turn may provide critical input when planning for infrastructure projects. One objective would be to modify the pattern of capacity expansions inside a system to make it less exposed to local shortfalls in demand. To illustrate our point, we shall use domestic air traffic in China; airports are spatially distributed and they also need to respond to the potential demand that they face locally. Airlines that control parts of the traffic system are identified as agents. A relationship between the agent's behavior and the system-wide level of variance in traffic flows can be established by regression analysis. It is shown how intervention on these agents would reduce negative traffic variance while enhancing a more balanced, less costly growth of the system itself.     

Flexible strategic planning of transport systems

Abstract

This paper presents a decision support methodology for long-range planning of transport systems that exhibits strategic flexibility and stochastic system parameters. Unlike one-off strategic decisions, flexible decisions should be dynamically reformulated with time. The proposed methodology is based on the construction of a tree structure of multiple interlinked tactical planning problems, each associated with a scenario in the tree, where problems under scenarios at intermediate dates incorporate in their formulation the solution of the corresponding problems associated with past (future) connected scenarios. The resulting tree structure of interconnected planning decisions becomes a strategic-tactical decision support system that allows managers to formulate suitable flexible strategic decisions that mitigate the consequences associated with downside scenarios while taking advantage of the upside opportunities. The methodology is applied to the planning of a fleet deployment through charter contracts where contract prices depend on both market behavior and the duration of the contract itself.