多部门协同的内河失控船应急处置决策方法

提出了一种基于模糊推理和决策偏好的群决策方法,以实现内河失控船的安全和有效的应急处置.首先,通过历史统计数据和文献综述,获取了不同影响因素下的失控船应急处置方案,确定了处置方案的决策准则;其次,利用模糊推理的方法对影响因素进行了模糊化,建立了模糊推理规则库和模糊推理机,通过去模糊化获取了不同决策方案下的决策准则值;再次,考虑到多部门协同的决策者的不同偏好信息格式,本文提出了一种基于一致性分析的线性规划模型,用于整合区间效用值、直觉模糊数和区间乘法偏好关系等决策偏好格式,从而获取不同决策准则的权重并得到最优决策方案.最后,应用典型案例进行了验证.结果表明,该方法能够很好地实现内河失控船的应急处置.     

一种基于模糊神经网络的交通方式划分模型

模糊神经网络具有良好的模式分类能力，而交通方式划分问题本质上也是一个模式分类问题。文章利用模糊神经网络方法对交通方式划分问题进行了建模，通过对FNN和BP神经网络（BPNN）方法运算结果的比较分析。证实模糊神经网络具有收敛速度快、精度高等优点：是模式划分问题的一种实用方法。     

Analysis on Beijing Subway Flows during the 29th Olympics

During the Beijing Olympics, as a major mode to support the urban traffic, Beijing subway adopts a series measures to give the guarantee to smooth operation of traffic, which include designing specific train schedule and extending the operation time of subway lines. Viewed from the characteristics of passenger flow in temporal distributions especially the opening and closing ceremony day and directional distributions such as the stations around competition venue, this paper analyzes the variety of the traffic flow of Beijing subway. The results indicate that the influence on passenger volumes from the Olympics is significantly associated with the layout of Olympics stadiums. Subway passenger volumes in central districts experience little increase both in weekdays and holidays. In the other aspect, the passenger flow have little rise in weekdays but reach a much higher amount in the holidays.     

Ship selection using a multiple-criteria synthesis approach

A method is presented for selecting a preferred ship from a group of candidates as a reference ship for a new design. The method is based on a recently developed approach for multiple-criteria decision analysis under uncertainty, the evidential reasoning approach. Using this method, both quantitative and qualitative attributes of a complicated nature can be considered in the selection process. The method consists of three phases: identifying suitable candidate ships, evaluating them in terms of both conventional techno-economical and qualitative attributes, and aggregating all the attributes using the evidential reasoning approach. This three-phase procedure is illustrated by means of an oil tanker selection example. The results of this study show that the evidential reasoning approach can support multiple-criteria ship selection processes when both qualitative and quantitative information with or without uncertainties have to be taken into account. The outcomes generated by the method include the ranking of the candidate ships and indications of their strengths and weaknesses in the format of performance distributions over different assessment grades. Such information is vital in helping decision makers to make an informed selection and be aware of any risk implication associated with the selection.     

汽车方案设计智能决策支持系统

从汽车整体设计的需要出发,分析了汽车总体方案设计的特点。介绍了一种智能化方案设计推理决策系统,该系统是在一个面向对象的数据库管理系统基础上开发的。在ACDIDSS中,问题求解主要采用基于实例的推理,辅之以基于规则的推理模式。论述了ACDIDSS系统的设计思想和各个主要模块的功能,并重点介绍了实例推进器的设计与实现。     

基于模糊专家系统的雷达干扰资源分配模型

在对目标信息进行综合利用的基础上,针对现代海战特点,建立了基于模糊专家系统的雷达干扰资源分配模型,详细地阐述了舰艇雷达干扰系统的知识表示和知识库构建方法,简要介绍了推理策略,充分利用专家经验,体现了定性分析与定量计算的特点。该研究对未来海战中干扰资源的分配决策具有一定的指导意义。     

基于BP神经网络的故障诊断技术在装备维修中的应用

传统故障诊断方法在装备保障中的诸多局限性。文章介绍了基于BP模型的神经网络,研究了基于BP模型神经网络的故障诊断推理方法,并利用Matlab仿真软件对结果进行了运行和计算。结果证明,基于BP神经网络的故障诊断技术对装备故障诊断是行之有效的。     

A Comparative Study of Three Machine Learning Methods for Software Fault Prediction

The contribution of this paper is comparing three popular machine learning methods for software fault prediction. They are classification tree, neural network and case-based reasoning. First, three different classifiers are built based on these three different approaches. Second, the three different classifiers utilize the same product metrics as predictor variables to identify the fault-prone components. Third, the predicting results are compared on two aspects, how good prediction capabilities these models are, and how the models support understanding a process represented by the data.     

三维空间过程模拟的时空数据模型研究

现有的地理信息系统软件一般没有考虑时间和空间多维因素,难以处理时空多维地学现象。而空间过程模拟是地学现象研究的主要手段。本文对空间过程模拟的数学模型、空间过程模拟模型的特点、现有GIS数据模型的局限性进行了分析,提出用快照序列模型和时间参数模型支持过程模拟的方法,并结合地震动过程模拟进行实例分析。     

桥梁智能CAD系统中的类比技术研究

首先分析了工程设计的实现,然后以工程设计过程的理论模型－规划控制下的二阶段设计模型为理论依据,讨论了桥梁数据结构的设计方法,并制定了相应的类比推理模型。