Evolution of latent modal captivity and mode choice patterns for commuting trips: A longitudinal analysis using repeated cross-sectional datasets

This paper presents an investigation of the temporal evolution of commuting mode choice preference structures. It contributes to two specific modelling issues: latent modal captivity and working with multiple repeated crossectional datasets. In this paper latent modal captivity refers to captive reliance on a specific mode rather than all feasible modes. Three household travel survey datasets collected in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) over a ten-year time period are used for empirical modelling. Datasets collected in different years are pooled and separate year-specific scale parameters and coefficients of key variables are estimated for different years. The empirical model clearly explains that there have been significant changes in latent modal captivity and the mode choice preference structures for commuting in the GTHA. Changes have occurred in the unexplained component of latent captivities, in transportation cost perceptions, and in the scales of commuting mode choice preferences. The empirical model also demonstrates that pooling multiple repeated cross-sectional datasets is an efficient way of capturing behavioural changes over time. Application of the proposed mode choice model for practical policy analysis and forecasting will ensure accurate forecasting and an enhanced understanding of policy impacts.     

Spatiotemporal traffic forecasting: review and proposed directions

This paper systematically reviews studies that forecast short-term traffic conditions using spatial dependence between links. We extract and synthesise 130 research papers, considering two perspectives: (1) methodological framework and (2) methods for capturing spatial information. Spatial information boosts the accuracy of prediction, particularly in congested traffic regimes and for longer horizons. Machine learning methods, which have attracted more attention in recent years, outperform the naïve statistical methods such as historical average and exponential smoothing. However, there is no guarantee of superiority when machine learning methods are compared with advanced statistical methods such as spatiotemporal autoregressive integrated moving average. As for the spatial dependency detection, a large gulf exists between the realistic spatial dependence of traffic links on a real network and the studied networks as follows: (1) studies capture spatial dependency of either adjacent or distant upstream and downstream links with the study link, (2) the spatially relevant links are selected either by prejudgment or by correlation-coefficient analysis, and (3) studies develop forecasting methods in a corridor test sample, where all links are connected sequentially together, assume a similarity between the behaviour of both parallel and adjacent links, and overlook the competitive nature of traffic links.     

活断层错动位移下衬砌断面型式对隧道结构的影响

以棋盘石隧道为工程背景,采用有限元方法,设置五种不同仰拱半径的三心圆断面,对比研究了活动断层错动下不同衬砌断面型式对链式结构隧道受力及塑性变形的影响。结果表明:断层错动引起隧道二次衬砌受到拉张、剪切、挤压组合作用;断层错动引起的高应力带主要在断层带内的节段拱脚位置,且峰值位于上盘,剪切缝能有效地吸收断层错动产生的拉应力;在隧道断面不断趋向正圆的过程中,二次衬砌最大主应力、最小主应力、剪应力均呈减小趋势,等效塑性应变呈增大趋势。     

集聚经济视角下轨道交通投资对城市系统均衡的影响

随着城镇化进程加快,城市规模增加所带来的集聚效应和交通拥堵等负外部性之间的矛盾越来越突出,优化城市交通基础设施建设是缓解该矛盾的重要举措。本文同时考虑了集聚经济和交通拥挤两种外部性,构建并求解了一个两区域城市空间结构模型,分三种情况探究了轨道交通的投资引入和道路容量的优化对城市规模和城市空间结构均衡的影响。结果表明,轨道交通的投资引入能够增加城市人口规模和社会福利,使城市结构更加紧凑。但是,随着集聚经济水平的提高,城市规划者应逐步完善公交配套设施,以降低公交拥挤成本,提高公交出行分担率;还应制定相应的福利政策,避免由于个体效用下降而导致人口流出。     

聚合物水泥混凝土复合式路面关键技术研究

聚合物水泥混凝土（犘犆犆）复合式路面是针对普通水泥路面的缺陷而提出的一种新型路面结构形式。文章对犘犆犆的材料选择与制备以及路用性能进行了研究,指出犘犆犆在强度、刚度、抗弯拉疲劳性能、耐久性能等方面相对普通水泥混泥土有着明显的优势,同时结合工程实例,分析了犘犆犆复合式路面关键施工技术中存在的问题,并提出相应的解决措施。     

大跨度连续刚构桥施工期截面应力测试与分析

广西布柳河大桥主桥为主跨235m、墩高97米、桥宽仅8.3米的特柔预应力混凝土连续刚构桥。文章结合主桥施工监控实践,介绍大跨高墩连续刚构桥施工期截面应力测试及数据分析的方法,为同类桥型施工提供参考。     

低质心混凝土搅拌车设计原理与结构

低质心混凝土搅拌车的主要结构和特点。针对市场上大容量混凝土搅拌车质心高的结构特点,介绍了一种能改善整车行驶稳定性的     

钢-混凝土组合桥面板计算分析

钢-混凝土组合桥面板是通过剪力连接件将混凝土和钢梁结合在一起的一种新型组合结构。以某一特大跨度悬索桥钢-混凝土组合桥面板为例,介绍了钢-混凝土桥面板设计的基本方法,并进行了有限元计算,结果表明设计满足规范要求。     

差异沉降对箱涵结构物内力的影响分析

软土地基高速公路工后沉降普遍偏大,结构物与相邻软土地基差异沉降造成路面呈波浪起伏,严重影响交通安全。分别考虑软土地基在CFG桩、袋装砂井、粉喷桩的地基处理方式,分析差异沉对结构物内力分布的影响程度,可为设计计算提供参考。     

混凝土薄壁箱形结构横向温度应力解析计算方法

为了改进和提高求解混凝土薄壁箱形结构横向温度应力计算方法的适用范围和精度,运用结构力学的方法将薄壁箱形结构比拟成框架结构,对不同温度模式下箱形结构横向温度应力的计算方法进行推导;按求解无铰拱内力的弹性中心法对力法方程进行简化,导出了求解薄壁箱形横向温度应力的解析计算公式。为验证解析计算法的正确性和精度,分别采用解析计算法和有限元程序对一个典型算例进行了对比分析。结果表明：解析计算法计算得到的横向温度应力结果与有限元分析结果吻合很好,且解析计算法具有较好的精度,适于工程应用;该解析法能够考虑各箱壁厚度不等和温差不同的情况,较既有求解横向温度应力的解析法有较大的改进。