基于模糊可靠性理论的高速线材轧辊优化设计研究

工作时受交变应力的作用,高速线材轧辊断裂问题时有发生.文章利用模糊可靠性理论,探讨在随机变量和模糊变量组合时轧辊的模糊可靠性设计方法.设计实例和生产实践证实了该方法具有优化设计的效果,使轧辊使用寿命显著提高.     

绿色港湾建设

结合国内外10大著名港口实例,从规划设计、结构选型、使用年限确定、旧有建筑物的改造和再利用、提高环保理念和健全法规等方面,论述了＂绿色港湾＂建设的必要性和可行性,以探研绿色港湾建设及其相关概念,并提出建议。可供规划设计人员参考。     

状态维修系统的指数分布检测策略

系统有4种运行状态：正常、异常、隐患和故障，系统从正常依次经异常、隐患到达故障。正常状态、异常状态和隐患状态为系统的工作状态，系统处于哪种工作状态检测诊断后才能知道，系统故障时不需检测诊断就能知道。系统每次开始正常工作后，每隔一段随机时间对它检测诊断一次，直到系统故障或检测诊断出系统处于异常或隐患状态为止，并且诊断正常和异常时结果有可能出现错误，隐患诊断结果不会出错。在系统的寿命为连续型随机变量，检测间隔时间服从指数分布的假设下，利用向量Markov过程方法求出了系统的可靠性指标、系统的最优检测策略。     

Estimation of value of travel time reliability

In mode choice decision, travelers consider not only travel time but also reliability of its modes. In this paper, reliability was expressed in terms of standard deviation and maximum delay that were measured based on triangular distribution. In order to estimate value of time and value of reliability, the Multinomial and Nested Logit models were used. The analysis results revealed that reliability is an important factor affecting mode choice decisions. Elasticity is used to estimate the impacts of the different policies and system improvements for water transportation mode. Among these policies, decision maker can assess and select the best alternative by doing the benefit and cost analysis based on a new market share, the value of time, and the value of reliability. Finally, a set of promising policies and system improvement of the water transportation were proposed.     

Ramp meters on trial: Evidence from the Twin Cities metering holiday

Ramp meters in the Twin Cities have been the subject of a recent test of their effectiveness, involving turning them off for eight weeks. This paper analyzes the results with and without ramp metering for several representative freeways during the afternoon peak period. Seven performance measures: mobility, equity, productivity, consumers’ surplus, accessibility, travel time variation and travel demand responses are compared. It is found that ramp meters are particularly helpful for long trips relative to short trips. Ramp metering, while generally beneficial to freeway segments, may not improve trip travel times (including ramp delays). The reduction in travel time variation comprises another benefit from ramp meters. Non-work trips and work trips respond differently to ramp meters. The results are mixed, suggesting a more refined ramp control algorithm, which explicitly considers ramp delay, is in order.     

船舶结构极限强度可靠性分析方法研究

针对船舶总纵极限强度极限状态方程不能以显式表达的实际情况，提出采用响应面与映射变换相结合的方法展开船舶总纵强度可靠性分析，指出相关随机变量在正态化前后相关系数的差异应予以考虑，并应用于实际船舶的计算，验证了理论的合理性。     

潜艇用嵌入式软件可靠性特点探讨

在对软件可靠性特点、嵌入式系统及其特点分析的基础上，探讨了潜艇用嵌入式软件可靠性的特点，指出提高嵌入式软件可靠性重点应放在软件设计上并注意其与硬件的协调性、同步性，同时探讨了提高潜艇用嵌入式软件可靠性的途径。     

铁路货物运输的随机过程分析和及时送达概率估计

应用随机过程理论，分析铁路运输系统中货物及时送达的概率分布，得到货物运输延续时间的平均值，为实现用户要求的运到期限提供了合理保证，并可通过评估与货主商定的运到期限与实际货物送达时间误差的概率，来找到货物及时送达过程中的关键环节，改进货物送达流程。最后举例说明它的应用。     

紫外线辐照度计在3000型荧光磁粉探伤机上的正确使用方法

分析了铁路轮对3000型荧光磁粉探伤机在使用紫外线辐照度计检测光照度时存在的问题,提出了紫外线辐照度计的正确使用方法。     

服役钢筋混凝土桥梁时变可靠性分析

分析了影响桥梁抗力变化的因素,讨论了桥梁抗力的衰减模型,并根据已有抗力信息采用回归分析方法及最小二乘法确定模型参数的方法,建立抗力随时间变化的可靠度分析模型.对某座实际钢筋混凝土桥梁的可靠度进行了分析研究.结果表明所研究方法的可靠性和有效性.