公交浮动车辆到站时间实时预测模型

根据公交浮动车辆实时GPS数据, 考虑不同时段的路段平均速度、公交车站、信号灯等多因素的影响, 建立了一种新的公交车辆到站时间预测模型。通过估计到达下游最临近站点的时间和判断道路上GPS数据的有效性等方法, 改善了预测模型的精度, 并应用重庆公交车辆数据对模型进行验证。计算结果表明: 该模型能够实时预测公交浮动车辆到达下游站点的时间, 预测精度优于现有方法, 在高峰时段预测误差小于9%, 在非高峰时段预测误差约为6%, 并对各种道路交通条件具有较好的适应性。     

A New Fine Damping Method for Solid ESG Rotor

Introduction The spin axis of ESG rotor will move alongclosed trajectories periodically after spin up, thetrajectories enclose either the maximum or theminimum principal axis of inertia depending on theinitial conditions, which is classical polhode mo-tion[1-4]. It is necessary to damp the polhode mo-tion to ensure that the spin axis is aligned with therotor maximum principal axis of inertia for ESGsignal readout. Passive damping and active damp-ing are two common schemes to fulfill this pro…     

罕遇地震作用下高速铁路减隔震简支梁桥合理计算模型的探讨

以往在分析减隔震桥梁的地震响应时,由于考虑到桥墩和基础应保持弹性工作状态,在基于强度的设计中偏于安全考虑桥墩一般采用毛截面刚度建立弹性梁单元模型。实际上,在罕遇地震作用下,桥墩墩底截面虽然未达到屈服状态,仍然会出现保护层混凝土开裂,并导致桥墩刚度降低。此时,应考虑对桥墩刚度进行适当修正以估计桥梁的各项地震响应参数,这也有利于实现减隔震桥梁基于位移的抗震设计。结合西部高速铁路中典型的简支梁桥结构形式,分别采用弹塑性纤维梁柱单元、弹性梁柱单元、考虑刚度修正的弹性梁柱单元模拟桥墩建立3种计算模型,探讨适用于罕遇地震作用下的高速铁路减隔震桥梁的合理计算模型。结果表明,当罕遇地震作用下桥墩位移延性超过0.5时,考虑刚度修正的弹性梁柱单元模拟桥墩的计算模型能够较好地估计桥梁各项地震响应参数。     

京唐城际铁路速度目标值选择

速度目标值是城际铁路最主要技术标准,不同的速度目标值决定了基础设施、设备及各项配套设施的选择。从京唐城际铁路功能定位出发,通过对客流特点、功能定位、时间目标值需求、经济技术比选等多方面因素的分析,综合得出京唐城际铁路速度目标值推荐采用350 km/h的方案。     

基于速度动态函的LTE-R越区切换优化算法

传统的LTE-R越区切换算法,采用固定切换迟滞门限和延迟触发时间的切换算法。但是当列车高速运行时,切换成功率明显下降,无法满足高速铁路无线通信系统对Qo S大于99.5%的要求。通过对切换流程、测量参数、控制参数的分析,提出一种基于速度动态函数的越区切换优化算法。该算法在低速、中速、高速3种列车运行状况下,更适宜高速铁路情景切换时机的选择。仿真结果表明:基于椭圆函数的LTE-R越区切换优化算法,既保证了列车在中高速运行时,越区切换成功率有着明显提升,又避免了列车在中低速运行时,乒乓切换事件频率过高。     

Estimation of delay variability at signalized intersections for urban arterial performance evaluation

Urban arterial performance evaluation has been broadly studied, with the major focus on average travel time estimation. However, in view of the stochastic nature of interrupted flow, the ability to capture the characteristics of travel time variability has become a critical step in determining arterial level of service (LOS). This article first presents a stochastic approach that integrates classic cumulative curves and probability theories in order to investigate delay variability at signalized intersections, as a dominant part of the link travel time variability. This serves as a basis for arterial travel time estimation, which can be obtained through a convolution of individual link travel time distributions. The proposed approach is then applied in the estimation of travel time along one arterial in Shanghai, China, with abundant automatic vehicle identification (AVI) data sources. The travel time variability is evaluated thoroughly at 30-min intervals, with promising results achieved in comparison to the field measurements. In addition, the estimated travel time distributions are utilized to illustrate the probability of multiple LOS ranges, namely, reliability LOS. The results provide insights into how we might achieve a more reliable and informative understanding of arterial performance.     

Subjective-utility travel time budget modeling in the stochastic traffic network assignment

ABSTRACT

In this article, we propose a new model called subjective-utility travel time budget (SU-TTB) model to capture travelers' risk-averse route choices. In the travel time budget (TTB) and mean-excess travel time (METT) model, a predefined confidence level is needed to capture the risk-aversion in route choice. Due to the day-to-day route travel time variations, the exact confidence level is hard to be predicted. With the SU-TTB model, we assume travelers' confidence level belongs to an interval that they may comply with in the route choice. The two main components of SU-TTB are the utility function and the TTB model. We can show that the SU-TTB can be reduced to the TTB and METT model with proper utility function for the confidence levels. We can also prove its equivalence with our recently proposed nonlinear-expectation route travel time (NERTT) model in some cases and give some new interpretation on the NERTT with this equivalence. Finally, we formulate the SU-TTB model as a variational inequality (VI) problem to model the risk-averse user equilibrium (RAUE), termed as generalized RAUE (GRAUE). The GRAUE is solved via a heuristic gradient projection algorithm, and the model and solution algorithm are demonstrated with the Braess's traffic network and the Nguyen and Dupuis's traffic network.     

Robust traffic assignment model: Formulation,solution algorithms and empirical application

ABSTRACT

The deterministic traffic assignment problem based on Wardrop's first criterion of traffic network utilization has been widely studied in the literature. However, the assumption of deterministic travel times in these models is restrictive, given the large degree of uncertainty prevalent in urban transportation networks. In this context, this paper proposes a robust traffic assignment model that generalizes Wardrop's principle of traffic network equilibrium to networks with stochastic and correlated link travel times and incorporates the aversion of commuters to unreliable routes.

The user response to travel time uncertainty is modeled using the robust cost (RC) measure (defined as a weighted combination of the mean and standard deviation of path travel time) and the corresponding robust user equilibrium (UE) conditions are defined. The robust traffic assignment problem (RTAP) is subsequently formulated as a Variational Inequality problem. To solve the RTAP, a Gradient Projection algorithm is proposed, which involves solving a series of minimum RC path sub-problems that are theoretically and practically harder than deterministic shortest path problems. In addition, an origin-based heuristic is proposed to enhance computational performance on large networks. Numerical experiments examine the computational performance and convergence characteristics of the exact algorithm and establish the accuracy and efficiency of the origin-based heuristic on various real-world networks. Finally, the proposed RTA model is applied to the Chennai road network using empirical data, and its benefits as a normative benchmark are quantified through comparisons against the standard UE and System Optimum (SO) models.     

基于FDS公路隧道火灾仿真研究

针对公路隧道突发火灾事故问题,采用模拟软件对隧道发生的火灾进行研究。分析火灾条件下公路隧道内被困人群的疏散行为特点,给出隧道内人员疏散的安全依据,按照隧道火灾条件下通风风速不同时火灾烟气蔓延情况,确定火灾可利用疏散时间(ASET),通过分析人员疏散特点计算出所需的疏散时间(RSET),通过对比得出:通风风速至少为3m/s时才能保证人员的安全疏散。     

基于时间约束的铁路空车调配系统可靠性分析

为弥补现有铁路空车调配系统缺乏空车调配可靠性研究的缺陷,在传统空车调配优化模型的基础上,本文提出了一种新的基于时间约束的空车调配可靠性分析方法。通过深入分析铁路空车调配过程,建立效益最大化目标函数,生成约束条件,以规定时间内的实际到达空车数与需求空车数之比计算出各需求站的空车调配可靠性,再利用各需求站可靠性均值求解空车调配系统的可靠性。最后,使用LINGO软件进行算例分析,论证了该方法的可行性和有效性。