军械战储器材轮换效果评估方法研究

基于层次分析法,建立了战储器材轮换效果评估指标体系,更加客观地反映出各个影响因素对战储器材轮换工作的影响程度,并结合模糊综合评估方法构建了轮换效果多层次模糊综合评估模型。研究成果将为开展军械战储器材轮换工作提供科学依据和理论指导,为部队和装备机关开展军械战储器材轮换工作提供费用低、效率高的方法。     

基于灰色层次法的指挥信息系统作战效能评估

从指挥信息系统的概念人手介绍了目前评估系统效能的各种方法,指出了它们各有其适用性和局限性,并依据灰色系统理论介绍了一种改进的评估方法：灰色层次分析法,描述了利用该方法进行评估的基本步骤。通过给出一个灰色评估案例,验证了应用灰色层次分析法来评估指挥信息系统作战效能的正确性和实用性。     

基于Supramax型散货船北极航道运营经济性模糊综合评判

本文以一艘Supramax型散货船为模型,结合北极航道船舶通航限制,从规范设计角度入手,设计了B级和B1级两种冰区加强下的船体结构,连同非冰区加强型结构一起,就船体结构重量、造价、航运费用、营运收入等主要经济性指标进行模糊综合评判,并对最终的结果进行分析,为船舶北极航道运营提供参考依据。     

Safety modeling for two‐way left‐turn lanes and a procedure to identify two‐way left‐turn lane segments with safety concerns

In the past, two‐way left‐turn lane (TWLTL) median treatments have been frequently used in Florida to inexpensively improve traffic and safety performances. In order to identify factors that may have significant impacts on safety operations in TWLTL sections and to identify TWLTL locations that present existing and future safety concerns, a research project was carried out and results are summarized in the paper. In the research, a three‐year crash history database with crashes and section characteristics from a total of 1688 TWLTL sections all over Florida was developed and used. A negative binomial regression model was developed to determine the statistical relationship between the number of crashes per mile per year and several variables such as traffic volume, access density, posted speed, and number of lanes. In regard to the methodology, in order to identify locations with safety concerns, several steps are needed: development of real crash data distribution, determination of statistical distribution models that better represent the actual crash data, determination of percentile values for the average number of crashes, estimation of crash rates for sections with the same characteristics, estimation of critical values for the variables corresponding to the percentile values for average number of crashes, calculation of tables of critical average annual daily traffic values, and generation of a list of TWLTL locations with critical safety concerns. Results presented in the paper have been used in real applications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

埋地钢质管道外防腐层选材专家系统

对外防腐层选择时需要考虑到的因素进行总结后，建立了包括3大类18个具体因素的外防腐层选材评价体系，对18个具体因素给予一定的权重，对常用外防腐层的性能以及其适用条件进行细分并采用5分制打分。利用权重系数法计算出常用外防腐层在具体工程中的得分，由此比较防腐层在该工程中的优劣及适用与否。     

城市燃气管道第三方损坏的评价方法

第三方损坏评价是指对由于各种外力作用而使管道受损的可能性进行分级.根据影响第三方损坏因素的情况,采用故障树分析法和模糊综合评判法相结合的数学模型进行评价.通过故障树分析,得到引起第三方损坏的各种因素的重要度.再将之作为模糊综合评判法的权重向量,求得第三方损坏的综合评判向量,最后按照最大隶属度原则确定各管段第三方损坏可能性的等级.     

基于层次分析法的交通运输节能减排示范项目绩效评价研究

交通运输是国家节能减排工作的重点领域,为促进交通运输节能减排技术发展,开展交通运输节能减排示范项目是政府部门一项重要的政策措施。对示范项目进行绩效评价工作能衡量财政资金投入政策实施效果,也是交通运输主管部门非常关注的问题。在交通运输节能减排示范项目绩效评价的逻辑框架下,运用层次分析法建立交通运输节能减排示范项目绩效评价指标体系及权重值,具有较好的实操性,能为开展同类型项目的绩效评价工作提供参考。     

大城市中心区实施拥堵收费的影响评价研究

文章在分析大城市中心区拥堵收费实施条件与方式的基础上,定性分析实施拥堵收费对居民出行行为以及中心区动静态交通的影响,最后提出基于模糊评价理论的中心区拥堵收费影响评价模型.     

Design and evaluation of a grade-separated intersection: a case study of the proposed Belgrade ‘Hipodrom’

This paper presents the evaluation results of three traffic solutions for the complex grade-separated intersection located in the old part of Belgrade at the junction with the new bridge over the Sava River. The corridor to which the intersection belongs together with the new river bridge are parts of a great urban artery called the Inner Half Semi-Ring Road (IHSRR). The traffic solutions that are evaluated are defined in the preliminary design phase, based on two opposed concepts: a complete grade separation of all intersection legs (the CPV alternative – ‘grade-separated’) and a grade separation designed to minimise construction costs (DMC 1 and 2 alternatives – ‘minimise cost’). The evaluation procedure is conducted in three steps: first, the score based on expert assessment of the functionality of the design solutions is determined; second, the alternatives are ranked according to the value of a set of state indicators obtained by micro-simulation using PTV–VISSIM 4.10; and third, the final score is obtained by multi-criteria evaluation using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method. The results of the first evaluation step show a small advantage for DMC 2, a sub-alternative of the DMC 1 alternative. The results of the micro-simulation give advantage to the DMC 1 alternative. The multi-criteria evaluation provides a better ‘goodness factor’ for the CPV alternative against the DMC 1 alternative. At the same time, the least construction cost favours alternative DMC 1.