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ABSTRACTThe economic history of the U.S. illustrates how the role of many cities has been changed by being seaports or located on navigable rivers or lakes. Based on the widening of the Panama Canal in 2016, the West Coast ports that include the west coast seaports of California, Oregon, and Washington were expected to become less important, while the freight shares of the East Coast and Gulf ports would increase. By how much it has been not easy to measure or predict so far, but this study attempted to define some of the key parameters in the measurement. As well as several relevant background topics, both the demand- and supply-side versions of the National Interstate Economic Model, have been applied for the measurement of economic impacts. U.S. port authorities and policy makers at the local and national levels who respond and develop plans for coping with the new realities of the Panama Canal are able to understand the extent to which changes in shippers’ and land-mode transporters’ behaviors would undermine the logistics and the costs of their activities. Therefore, this study is important for a diverse spectrum of port development strategies in the U.S. to respond to the Canal expansion. 相似文献
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ABSTRACTThe advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics. 相似文献
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文章简述了巴列特(Pareto)统计分配法的基本要点,并结合天津港南疆工作船码头工程的施工实例,应用巴列特法进行了分析,明确了该工程中节省成本的重点项目、内容及节省成本的贡献率,从而有针对性地制定了相应的成本控制和节约措施,经过实践,收到了较好的效果。 相似文献
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论港口建设工程造价的全过程管理 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
港口建设工程造价的控制与管理是一个动态的过程,文中重点分析了在项目投资决策阶段、项目设计阶段、项目实施阶段和竣工阶段全过程造价管理的方法与侧重点,以提高投资效益。 相似文献
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针对网络控制系统中存在的不确定时延,在传感器采用时间驱动,执行器与控制器采用事件驱动、时延小于一个采样周期的条件下,将网络控制系统建模为一类具有不确定性的线性离散系统并且其标称模型可控。围绕该标称模型,利用Lyapunov方法,基于相应的LMI可行解,给出网络控制系统保性能控制律的设计方法。通过仿真证明了该方法的有效性。 相似文献
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1委内瑞拉铁路现状委内瑞拉中西部铁路修复工程位于委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔共和国境内中西部地区,全长241.4km,由2段组成。其中,卡贝略港―巴基西梅托段(简称卡—巴段)173.8km,始建于1959年,运营40多年来,由于资金、设备和人力等原因,铁路设施缺乏必要的养护和维修,导致旅客列车停运, 相似文献
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支持向量机是一种采用结构风险最小化原则代替传统经验风险最小化原则的新型统计学习方法,具有完备的理论基础。首先应用支持向量机原理建立了基于支持向量机的多参数武器装备可靠性增长费用预测模型,然后对我军某型现役装备使用阶段可靠性增长费用数据进行了预测与分析。结果表明,与一般的回归分析相比,基于支持向量机的回归模型具有很好的预测精度。 相似文献