Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

铁路牵引供电系统安全防护与优化技术方案硏究

为了提高铁路牵引供电系统安全防护等级,加强防范强电侵入的能力,减少雷击事故对铁路运输以及设备维护造成的经济损失,本文分析了牵引变电所常见的强电侵入类型及途径,针对现有问题逐一提出了优化技术方案,并阐述了研究思路及方案具体实施方法。     

福州东(樟林)车辆段工艺设计实践与创新

随着铁路建设的发展,福建省境内货车保有量大幅度增长,货车检修任务量增加迅速。樟林编组站位于福州枢纽,具备良好的扣车条件,在此新建1处货车车辆段将解决整个福建省货车的定期检修工作,而且能保障列车的运行安全,节约运输成本以及货车周转时间。福州东车辆段出入段线下穿既有温福铁路,有利于行车组织、运营安全。总图因地制宜全创新提出存车线(预检预修)与修车库贯通布置方案。充分梳理预检预修与架落车工艺,提出独立设置预检预修设施。论述抛丸除锈设备独立设置、转向架单臂悬挂检修流水线等修车库与联合车库创新设计,福州东(樟林)车辆段设计实现了创新理念和工程实际的协调统一。     

无砟轨道板精调车结构可靠性分析及优化

为提高无砟轨道板精调车结构的设计水平,考虑精调车荷载、几何尺寸和材料弹性模量等设计变量的随机性,对精调车结构进行可靠性分析、可靠性灵敏度分析和可靠性优化。首先,分析并得到精调车结构在串联失效模式下的结构功能函数;然后,运用响应面法和重要抽样方法,分析得到基于确定性优化的精调车结构的失效概率和可靠性灵敏度结果。最后,根据可靠性灵敏度分析结果,对该结构进行可靠性优化。分析精调车结构在可靠性优化前后的差异,结果表明,与确定性优化结果相比,可靠性优化使精调车结构自重增加了3.55%,但可靠度提高为0.999 999 987 7,说明设计变量的随机性对结构性能的干扰大幅减小。     

Online channel strategies under different offline channel power structures for the Belt and Road of China

ABSTRACT

This paper explores the online channel strategies adopted by Chinese manufacturers with regard to the Belt and Road. It also investigates the effect of offline channel power structures and maritime transportation costs on online channel mode selection and pricing strategies. The offline channel power structures are classified into three types, namely, Chinese manufacturer Stackelberg (MS) structure, vertical Nash (VN) structure, and foreign retailer Stackelberg (RS) structure. Furthermore, a game model is developed among the Chinese manufacturer, foreign retailer, and cross-border e-tailer to investigate the interactions among offline channel power structures, maritime transportation costs, and Chinese manufacturers’ online channel mode selection. The results show that Chinese manufacturers’ preferences for the online agency selling mode increases correspondingly with the decrease in their market position and bargaining power. Moreover, foreign retailers can obtain higher profits in the online agency selling mode under the VN structure. However, the level of profit for foreign retailers depends on the intensity of their competition with cross-border e-tailers under the MS and RS structures. Finally, consumers in countries along the Belt and Road can obtain a higher surplus in the online agency selling mode under all of the structures.     

狗左右心室和肺循环功能的同步测定与评价

本文介绍了狗左、右心室和肺循环功能的同步测定方法,并同时观察了左、右心室收缩、舒张性能、泵功能和肺循环功能的多项指标。在实验条件下,动物的生理状况在3小时内基本稳定。     

浅谈青藏线转辙设备的养护与维修

本文根据CTS2轨枕式转辙机本身的特点以及青藏铁路的管理模式，从养护、维修的角度，简要说明了CTS2轨枕式转辙机需要的养护工作量、故障处理方法、维修特点及在施工中要注意的问题。     

几种常见形式的等效阶梯截面

针对许多平面杆系桥梁分析软件仅提供梯形分块法的截面尺寸输入方式和截面几何特性已知或者有解析表达式的带有曲边的截面不便直接使用梯形分块法的问题，利用桥梁结构平面计算中截面等效的概念．提出了等效算法，构造了节线数不多于6的等效阶梯截面，推导了等效阶梯截面几何要素的一般计算公式．给出了圆形、圆环等几种常用截面形式的不多于6条节线等效阶梯截面尺寸计算的具体而又简捷的公式。     

我国电力机车及动力车通风系统

简要地说明了我国电力机车及动力车通风系统的发展情况，尤其是交流传动技术对我国电力机车及动力车通风系统的发展的重要影响，同时，还详细分析了各种通风方式的特点，为电力机车及动力车通风系统简统化设计提供了多种选择模式。     

船舶除锈机器人驱动系统设计

介绍了应用在船舶除锈的磁吸附爬壁机器人本体驱动系统的设计,着重阐述了系统的驱动原理和驱动电路。系统以89c51单片机为核心,通过键盘以及通信接口可以方便的控制步进电机带动机器人本体运动,充分发挥了单片机的优势。实验表明,系统电路设计合理,简单实用。