重载铁路小半径曲线跨度32m简支T梁设计研究

铁路专用线是近几年快速发展的铁路建设形式之一,重载小半径铁路专用线更是主要的发展方向。晋中南铁路专用线采用300 k N轴重列车活载,其单线最小曲线半径300 m,双线最小曲线半径600 m,超出32 m常用跨度简支T梁梁图适用范围,而采用更小跨度的简支T梁或连续箱梁不经济。根据铁路小半径重载桥梁的特点,提出小半径曲线下重载铁路简支T梁的设计方案。重点研究适用于小半径简支T梁的偏载计算,分别提出恒载偏载和活载偏载的计算方法。目前多条专用线已经通车运营,实践证明设计方案是合理可行的。     

Understanding the role of the forecast-maker in overestimation forecasts of policy impacts: The case of Travel Demand Management policies

Forecasting the impacts of a proposed policy is an important component of the transportation planning and decision making process. Although scientific tools are often used in transportation forecasts, biases and, more specifically, overestimations of the expected impact are often observed. This study explores the correlations between forecast-maker’s characteristics and forecast bias creation and reduction. The study examines two transport-related policies aiming at the reduction of car use: telecommuting and carsharing. Both are Travel Demand Management (TDM) policies, which attract much attention from transport experts. We tested the extent to which the forecast-maker’s beliefs about the policy at stake affected the forecast bias. We found that attitudes and beliefs associates not only with overestimation bias but also with its reduction over time. We also tested the extent to which the forecast-maker’s affiliation, the performing institute and the publication type were correlated with the biases of the forecast and with the forecaster attitudes and beliefs. These characteristics are intuitively used by the forecast user as tools to assess the ‘objectivity’ of the forecast, but our analysis found no association between these characteristics and the forecast bias.