水运网络构画与城市经济空间传统布局思想研究

水资源条件是影响经济空间和经济区位的重要因素,经济空间概念涉及居住形态和经济发展的区位问题,区位理论是关于人类经济活动的空间分布及空间相互关系的学说,对全国范围的水路运输网络系统的整体构想是古代水运网络思想的重要内容,水路网络的延伸与畅达在一定程度上影响着古代城市经济空间的布局特征。     

基于运量的国民经济效益网络计算法

通过对现行国民经济效益计算方法的研究．运用交通分配理论论证了现行计算方法中运量分析存在的问题。依据交通分配理论和消费者剩余理论，将交通建设项目吸引区内整个路网作为研究对象，建立了基于运量的国民经济效益网络计算法。实例计算表明该方法的有效性。     

Productivity change of the Spanish Port System: impact of the economic crisis

ABSTRACT

The main goal of this study was to assess the impact of the economic crisis on the productivity growth of the Spanish Port System (SPS). The Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) was estimated for the 28 Port Authorities of the SPS, for a ‘non-crisis period’ (2005–2008) and a ‘crisis period’ (2008–2011). From a policy perspective, the MPI is a very useful approach for assessing the productivity change because it can be decomposed into the catching-up index and the frontier productivity index. The results showed that the economic crisis did not impact all of the Spanish Port Authorities equally. Some Port Authorities presented higher productivity growth during the crisis period than in the non-crisis period. Further analysis by the Mann–Whitney test revealed that Port Authority investments and productivity growth were statistically related. Information provided by this study may be very useful for stakeholders and decision-makers, in terms of long-term strategic planning and improving the competitiveness of the SPS. The findings illustrate that the economic crisis should not be seen as an international tragedy, but as an opportunity to adapt port traffics and installations to new needs and market demands.     

Impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative in the Indian subcontinent under future port development scenarios

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is twofold: the first is to assess the extent to which current port development initiatives contribute to securing the status of the Port of Colombo as a regional transshipment (T/S) hub to serve the Indian subcontinent; and the second is to generate plausible future development scenarios for the maritime industry in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). A scenario analysis method is applied to examine the past trends and to build future development scenarios. The results showed that major Indian ports have experienced a significant growth in cargo volumes and vessel traffic. South and East Indian coastal ports continue to use the Port of Colombo as a T/S port in tandem with the corridors connected to the Indian Ocean. Scenario analysis highlights the growing importance of BRI-centric land-based economic corridors, which would generate a large amount of cargos from hinterlands up to China. This would be further fueled through the Great Mekong region-driven industrialization, which would add to the west-bound maritime cargo volume. The paper concludes that the increased capital influx from China would more likely to result in a substantial development of the present port and road/rail infrastructure in Sri Lanka.     

Modeling the impacts of alternative emission trading schemes on international shipping

Various market-based measures have been proposed to reduce CO₂ emissions from international shipping. One promising mechanism under consideration is the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). This study analyzes and benchmarks the economic implications of two alternative ETS mechanisms, namely, an open ETS compared to a Maritime only ETS (METS). The analytical solutions and model calibration results allow us to quantify the impacts of alternative ETS schemes on the container shipping sector and the dry bulk shipping sector. It is found that an ETS, whether open or maritime only, will decrease shipping speed, carrier outputs and fuel consumption for both the container and dry bulk sectors, even in the presence of a “wind-fall” profit to shipping companies. Under an open ETS, the dry bulk sector will suffer from a higher proportional reduction in output than the container sector, and will thus sell more emission permits or purchase fewer permits. Under an METS, container carriers will buy emission permits from the dry bulk side. In addition, under an METS the degree of competition within one sector will have spill-over effects on the other sector. Specifically, when the sector that sells (buys) permits is more collusive (competitive), the equilibrium permit price will rise. This study provides a framework for identifying the moderating effects of market structure and competition between firms on emission reduction schemes, and emphasizes the importance of understanding the differential impacts of ETS schemes on individual sectors within an industry when considering alternative policies.     

Effect of transportation infrastructure on economic growth in India: The VECM approach

This paper examines the effect of transportation (road and rail) infrastructure on economic growth in India over the period 1970–2010. Using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the paper finds bidirectional causality between road transportation and economic growth. It also finds bidirectional causality between road transportation and capital formation, bidirectional causality between gross domestic capital formation and economic growth, unidirectional causality from rail transportation to economic growth and unidirectional causality from rail transportation to gross capital formation. The paper suggests that expansion of transport infrastructure (both road and rail) along with gross capital formation will lead to substantial growth of the Indian economy. Therefore, within its stated scope, this study suggests that a suitable transport policy should be retained to boost transportation infrastructure and hence sustainable economic growth in India.     

经济潜力模型法量化高速公路对沿线经济的带动效益

从空间经济学中的经济潜力模型出发,探讨了高速公路对沿线及周边地区经济的带动效益问题。通过提出区域可接近性概念,并利用区域经济潜力模型量化分析了高速公路对沿线区域经济的影响,并结合实际案例(京沪高速公路河北境内青县至吴桥段高速公路)测算出了高速公路对沿线区域经济增长的贡献。研究结果表明:至2020年,青吴高速公路对沿线经济的带动效益达13亿左右。     

Seaports and the structural implications of the economic crisis

The 2008 credit crunch and the subsequent economic crisis ended a period that lasted over two decades wherein international seaports around the globe experienced double-digit volume increases. This chapter provides an analysis of the structural effects that the crisis has on seaports, focusing mostly on developments in Europe. It does so via an examination of (a) the crisis implication for each of the four major types of transport flows that account for the vast majority of port throughput worldwide; (b) the prospects for future capacity organisation and development, given the realignment of the involvement strategies that the various stakeholders (i.e., governments, port authorities, service providers, users, investors) endorse in reaction to the financial tsunami; and (c) the adjustment opportunities, that the trade downturn unintentionally provides, allowing for correction of existing misallocations in the sector via the deployment of relevant adjustment strategies by the related actors. Recapping the identified structural consequences, the final section concludes on the changing role and responsibilities of port authorities and the ‘new issues’ that will require further investigation in the post-financial tsunami era.     

Simulating deep CO2 emission reduction in transport in a general equilibrium framework: The GEM-E3T model

Transport sector restructuring to achieve deep GHG emission cuts has attracted much attention because transportation is important for the economy and inflexible in greenhouse gas emission reduction. The aim of this paper is to simulate transition towards low carbon transportation in the European Union until 2050 and to assess the ensuing macroeconomic and sectorial impacts. Transport restructuring is dynamically simulated using a new transport-oriented version of the computable general equilibrium model GEM-E3 which is linked with the PRIMES-TREMOVE energy and transport sectors model. The analysis draws from comparing a reference scenario projection for the EU member-states up to 2050 to alternative transport policy scenarios and sensitivities which involve deep cutting of CO₂ emissions. The simulations show that transport restructuring affects the economy through multiple channels, including investment in infrastructure, the purchasing and manufacturing of new technology vehicles, the production of alternative fuels, such as biofuels and electricity. The analysis identifies positive impacts of industrial activity and other sectors stemming from these activities. However, the implied costs of freight and passenger transportation are of crucial importance for the net impact on GDP and income. Should the transport sector transformation imply high unit costs of transport services, crowding out effects in the economy can offset the benefits. This implies that the technology and productivity progress assumptions can be decisive for the sign of GDP impacts. A robust conclusion is that the transport sector decarbonisation, is likely to have only small negative impacts on the EU GDP compared to business as usual.     

我国铁路铁矿石运输发展对策研究

随着运输结构调整的不断深入,"公转铁"运量持续增加,我国铁矿石运输发展对铁路货运增量具有重要意义.阐述我国铁矿石市场产需运现状,分析铁矿石铁路运输情况,针对当前铁路铁矿石运输存在的问题,提出我国铁路铁矿石运输发展对策措施,即:加强港口后方通道衔接,提高海铁联运比重;推进企业专用线建设,强化铁路"门到门"服务;积极推进"...