The impact of extreme weather conditions on long distance travel behaviour

This paper examines traveller attitudes and responses towards disruption from weather and natural events. An internet-based travel behaviour survey was conducted with more than 2000 respondents in London and Glasgow. Of these respondents, 740 reported information on over 1000 long distance trips affected by extreme weather and natural events over the previous three years. Results show respondents are generally cautious towards travelling during extreme weather events. For a slight majority in the case of air and public transport, and a greater one in the case of car, travellers did not considerably alter their travel plan following the disruption. This was explained not only by less disruptive weather conditions (with heavy snow and volcanic ash being the most disruptive) and impact, but also by the relative importance of their trips. Differences between transport modes were not substantial. Business trips sometimes appeared to give travellers more flexibility, some other times not. Origin and destination did have an impact on reaction, as well as the presence of children whilst travelling. Mixed results were obtained about socio-economic and attitudinal variables. Age in particular did not appear to have a significant effect. Whilst most respondents did acknowledge no external influence in their decision, results showed an important contribution of transport organisation staff, as well as home and mobile internet technology. A limited but still considerable number of respondents indicated their closest friends/relatives as the main influence of their decisions. The results will help planners deploy strategies to mitigate the negative effects of weather related disruptions.     

Evaluating the effects of climate change on road maintenance intervention strategies and Life-Cycle Costs

Climate change has the potential to impact long-term road pavement performance. Consequently, to maintain pavements within the same ranges of serviceability as before, current pavement maintenance strategies need to be re-assessed and, if necessary, changed. Changes in maintenance may lead to different agency costs and user costs as a consequence. This paper commences by defining an assessment procedure, showing how maintenance intervention strategies and Life-Cycle Costs (LCC) may be affected by future climate. A typical Virginia flexible pavement structure and anticipated climate change was used as an example. This example is believed to be representative for a great number of localities in the United States. A method using historical climatic data and climate change projections to predict pavement performance using Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) under current or future climate was introduced. Based on pavement performance prediction, maintenance interventions were planned and optimized. The maintenance effects of three treatments (thin overlay, thin overlay with an intermediate layer, and mill & fill) were considered. A Life-Cycle Cost analysis is reported that used binary non-linear programming to minimize the costs (either agency costs or total costs) by optimizing intervention strategies in terms of type and application time. By these means, the differences in maintenance planning and LCC under current and future climate can be derived. It was found, that for this simplified case study, pavement maintenance and LCC may be affected by climate change Optimized maintenance may improve resilience to climate change in terms of intervention strategy and LCC, compared to responsive maintenance.     

Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices

A large body of transport sector-focused research recognizes the complexity of human behavior in relation to mobility. Yet, global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which are widely used to evaluate the costs, potentials, and consequences of different greenhouse gas emission trajectories over the medium-to-long term, typically represent behavior and the end use of energy as a simple rational choice between available alternatives, even though abundant empirical evidence shows that real-world decision making is more complex and less routinely rational. This paper demonstrates the value of incorporating certain features of consumer behavior in IAMs, focusing on light-duty vehicle (LDV) purchase decisions. An innovative model formulation is developed to represent heterogeneous consumer groups with varying preferences for vehicle novelty, range, refueling/recharging availability, and variety. The formulation is then implemented in the transport module of MESSAGE-Transport, a global IAM, although it also has the generic flexibility to be applied in energy-economy models with varying set-ups. Comparison of conventional and ‘behaviorally-realistic’ model runs with respect to vehicle purchase decisions shows that consumer preferences may slow down the transition to alternative fuel (low-carbon) vehicles. Consequently, stronger price-based incentives and/or non-price based measures may be needed to transform the global fleet of passenger vehicles, at least in the initial market phases of novel alternatives. Otherwise, the mitigation burden borne by other transport sub-sectors and other energy sectors could be higher than previously estimated. More generally, capturing behavioral features of energy consumers in global IAMs increases their usefulness to policy makers by allowing a more realistic assessment of a more diverse suite of policies.     

Reducing the climate change impacts of aviation by restricting cruise altitudes

Two of the ways in which air travel affects climate are the emission of carbon dioxide and the creation of high-altitude contrails. One possible impact reduction strategy is to significantly reduce the formation of contrails. This could be achieved by limiting the cruise altitude of aircraft. If implemented, this could severely constrain air space capacity, especially in parts of Europe. In addition, carbon emissions would likely be higher due to less efficient aircraft operation at lower cruise altitudes. This paper describes an analysis of these trade-offs using an air space simulation model as applied to European airspace. The model simulates the flight paths and altitudes of each aircraft and is here used to calculate emissions of carbon dioxide and changes in the journey time. For a one-day Western European traffic sample, calculations suggest annual mean CO₂ emissions would increase by only 4% if cruise altitudes were restricted to prevent contrail formation. The change in journey time depended on aircraft type and route, but average changes were less than 1 min. Our analysis demonstrates that altitude restrictions on commercial aircraft could be an effective means of reducing climate change impacts, though it will be necessary to mitigate the increased controller workload conflicts that this will generate.     

Variability of snow and ice thermal, physical and optical properties pertinent to sea ice algae biomass during spring

Changes in the thermal, physical and optical properties of the snow–sea ice system and feedbacks between various temporal and spatial scales affect accumulation of microalgae at the sea ice bottom and are the focus of this research. During the spring transition period, May 4 to June 9, 2002, we closely monitored atmospheric conditions and properties of the snow–sea ice system, including thermal, physical and optical properties of the snow cover (e.g., temperature, grain size, light attenuation), ice thickness and salinity, and biomass of bottom ice algae. Results show that snowdrift size averaged 31.2 by 10.6 m with a depth range of 2 to 45 cm. Snowpacks also varied in age, distinguished by coincident peaks of snow salinity and grain size and a lower PAR extinction coefficient. Spatial variability of the snowpack was superimposed by temporal variability associated with seasonal snow–ice melt and wind redistribution of snow. Maximum biomass of ice algae was observed under intermediate snow covers. Under thin snow covers, algae biomass declined steadily coincident with seasonal warming and desalination of the ice cover. Under thick snow covers, algae biomass was negatively correlated with snow depth. These results suggest that thin snow covers were associated with a thermal effect causing sloughing of algae, whereas under deep snow, algae were still light limited and thermally insulated from the warming atmosphere. Our results highlight the importance of snow cover history on the sea ice system operating below. Furthermore, in the context of current climate change scenarios, shifts in snow depth would result in decreases of ice algae biomass.     

Improvement in the estimation and back-extrapolation of CO2 emissions from the Irish road transport sector using a bottom-up data modelling approach

Road transport is a major source of CO₂ emissions in Ireland and accounts for almost 96% of the total CO₂ emissions from the transport sector. Following the recent adopted UNFCCC reporting guidelines on annual inventories [24/CP.19], this study applied the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (2006 IPCC GLs) tier 3 approach to estimate CO₂ emissions from road transport at the vehicle category level, for the first time in Ireland. For this, disaggregated datasets were prepared based on year of vehicle registration and mileage since registration of the vehicle. Such an approach provided a more realistic national scenario in comparison to the use of average mileage degradation in emission calculations. This investigation comprised a recalculation of previous emissions estimates (1990–2012) and an estimation of CO₂ emissions in 2013 using a previously unavailable level of data disaggregation for vehicle mileage as well as using vehicle class specific data and an improved bottom-up estimation methodology in COPERT. Historic vehicle fleet data were restructured, annual mileage data were estimated in relation to the fleet data and back extrapolated using a regression approach.The results showed that the mileage degradation was not only subject to fuel technology, engine size, and age but also the emissions class and vehicle category. It was also observed that the disaggregated level of data provided a different CO₂ emissions split among the vehicle categories than that of previous estimations which were based on an aggregated level of data. Previous emissions inventories (1990–2012) were shown to have underestimated the share from diesel fuelled passenger cars by more than 56% in 2012. Diesel fuelled passenger cars were also found to account for the majority of CO₂ emissions from road transport activities in Ireland in 2013. The level and trend assessment showed that emissions from Euro-II and Euro-III classed vehicles especially for passenger cars, which have a significant contribution to the total emission in 2013 have caused an increase in fleet level emissions in Ireland. In addition, the results also showed that the emissions share from Light Duty Vehicles and Heavy Duty Vehicles were overestimated by previous investigations. This paper highlights the importance of the resolution of data used in emissions inventory preparation which may impact upon future projections and policy formulation. The findings of this investigation are also discussed in relation their implications for road transport policy, including carbon taxation and future policy options aimed at achieving EU emissions target in 2020.     

青藏铁路工程走廊多年冻土对全球气候变化的响应

针对受全球气候转暖影响青藏铁路沿线年平均气温逐年上升的环境变化,基于青藏铁路沿线不同区域内多年来的气象及地温监测资料,进行青藏铁路工程走廊气候要素演化及多年冻土对全球气候变化响应的研究。结果表明:青藏铁路工程走廊内气温基本以年均0.03℃的速度升高;年降水量大部分在250~450mm之间,且呈波动增大变化趋势;冻结指数和融化指数逐年增大,暖冬现象明显;地面温度升温速率达0.06℃·年-1,是气温升温速率的1.34倍;沿线多年冻土区2007年至2013年间天然上限抬升的仅占9%,而天然上限下降的占91%;地基多年冻土不同深度处地温均在升高,距离上限较近的地温升温速率普遍最大,多年冻土退化主要为自上而下;唐古拉山以北多年冻土退化较唐古拉山以南明显。     

秦岭终南山特长公路隧道洞口气象观测与分析

针对秦岭终南山特长公路隧道通风计算中缺少必要的洞口基本气象参数的情况,建立了洞口气象观测站,对其气象参数进行了周期一年的连续现场观测。文章根据观测结果分析了隧道洞口端各气象参数的变化规律,可为多竖井、深埋隧道通风防灾设计提供较为可靠的依据。     

汽车空调整车环境模拟系统的仿真

建立了汽车空调整车环境模拟系统的数学模型,并在M ATLAB S/IM ULIN K软件平台上开发了汽车空调整车环境模拟系统的仿真模块库。简单介绍了所开发的仿真模块库,并用此仿真模块库对某汽车空调整车环模系统进行了仿真研究。与试验结果对比表明,所开发的仿真模块库具有很高的仿真精度。     

南通地区气旋大风特征及预报方法研究

文章根据南通市气象台1981—2010年的气象观测资料,对南通地区大风天气的多时间尺度特征进行了分析,得出了南通地区气旋大风形势场类型,并对各型预报指标做出了总结,为今后南通地区气旋大风的预报提供参考。