基于态度-行为模型的低收入通勤者出行方式选择

为了分析城市低收入通勤者交通方式选择行为,揭示个体社会经济属性、活动 属性和潜在态度变量对出行者出行方式选择的影响,基于抚顺市居民一日出行调查数 据,采用态度-行为模型探究低收入通勤者出行方式选择机理.首先基于多指标多原因模 型分析影响态度变量的外在因素,结果表明性别、驾照拥有情况和年龄对态度变量的构 成影响较大.然后,分别建立含潜变量和不含潜变量的多项Logit 模型,发现含潜变量的选 择模型更能解释出行行为,社会经济属性、活动属性和态度变量对低收入通勤者出行方 式选择影响存在一定差异.     

技术指标在设计中的灵活运用

讨论了道路设计中诸多制约因素的互相影响,通过分析,预测道路的近、远期交通量以及在区域控制网中的地位,合理确定道路的线形技术指标和经济指标,并阐述了这些指标在设计中的灵活运用。     

论财务管理在医疗机构发展中的作用

随着国家医疗卫生改革的不断深入,医院要想在激烈的市场竞争中立于不败之地,医院必须加强财务管理工作。笔者从发挥财务监督职能、财务工作透明化,确定财务管理目标、合理编制财务预算,建立健全财务制度内部控制制度,实行成本核算,搞好医院财务活动的分析和评价五个方面进行了论述,有利于提高医院财务管理水平,使医院在错综复杂的市场竞争环境中立于不败之地。     

A methodological approach for environmental characterization of ports

This paper introduces a methodology for the characterization of ports, employing specifically defined eco-efficiency indicators and combining typically available data (handled cargo, containers and passengers) with ship exhaust pollutants values (mainly NO_x, SO_x and PM) and anticipated external costs (ECs) due to emitted air pollutants to provide a collective overview of all port-related economic and environmental activities. The results from an applied case study allow a comparative evaluation of 16 selected ports based on 17 different evaluation criteria and denote that the employment of such an overall approach can allow port authorities to improve managerial aspects, potentially lower operational costs and promote reduced environmental effects.     

Data-driven spatio-temporal discretization for pedestrian flow characterization

We propose a novel approach to pedestrian flow characterization. The definitions of density, flow and velocity existing in the literature are extended through a data-driven spatio-temporal discretization framework. The framework is based on three-dimensional Voronoi diagrams. Synthetic data is used to empirically investigate the performance of the approach and to illustrate its advantages. Our approach outperforms the considered approaches from the literature in terms of the robustness with respect to the simulation noise and with respect to the sampling frequency. Additionally, the proposed approach is by design (i) independent from an arbitrarily chosen discretization; (ii) appropriate for the multidirectional composition of pedestrian traffic; (iii) able to reflect the heterogeneity of the pedestrian population; and (iv) applicable to pedestrian trajectories described either analytically or as a sample of points.     

The impact of high-speed rail investment on economic and environmental change in China: A dynamic CGE analysis

This study investigates the impact of high-speed rail investment on the economy and environment in China using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The analysis is implemented in a dynamic recursive framework capturing long-run capital accumulation and labor market equilibrium. A national level impact was simulated through direct impact drivers including land use conversion, output expansion, cost reduction, productivity increase, transport demand substitution and induced demand. The results suggest that rail investment in China over the past decade has been a positive stimulus to the economy, while the effect on CO₂ emissions generation has been large. Overall, the economic impacts of rail investment are achieved primarily through induced demand and output expansion, whereas the contribution from a reduction of rail transportation costs and rail productivity increases were modest. In addition, negligible negative impacts were found from land use for rail development and the substitution effect among other modes. Emissions reduction from substitution of rail for other modes was small and offset by output expansion due to lowered rail transport costs and induced demand.     

机械化施工方案的技术经济分析

通过对机械化施工方案技术经济的重要性和分析步骤的叙述,介绍了机械化施工中工程成本的内容和计算方法,并重点描述了施工方案技术经济分析方法中常用的工程成本法和回收期计算法.     

列车自动运行系统的性能指标权重分配方案研究

针对ATO自动运行系统的准时性、停车精确性、舒适性和节能性四大性能指标的权重分配问题,采用层次分析法和马氏距离相结合的离线主客观分配法,以及模糊聚类法和粗糙集相结合的在线纯客观分配法,分别对测试线路上列车运行过程中各性能指标进行权重分配,根据分析结果得出,2种方法分配的权重下ATO均取得了良好的控车效果。     

综合监控系统RAMS及全生命周期成本分析与研究

根据轨道交通综合监控系统的特性,对系统RAMS进行分析,制定合理可行的方案,并采取相应的技术手段,保证综合监控系统稳定安全运行。关注系统全生命周期成本,在系统不同的生命周期阶段做出积极的反应和决策,进一步优化成本和整合资源,以实现社会效益和经济效益的双赢。     

基于Markov链修正的铁路运量灰色组合预测模型研究

预测模型的准确与否直接决定着未来经济规划与决策的有效制定。将灰色GM(1,1)-Verhulst组合预测模型与马尔可夫链方法相结合,同时引入信息熵理论的知识,提出基于Markov链修正的熵权法灰色组合预测方法,并以甘肃省2004年～2015年铁路客运量作为原始数据序列进行模型拟合,而且还以此为基础对甘肃省未来几年内的客运量发展趋势进行预测。结论:(1)在已知实际客运量年份内,该灰色组合预测模型的预测精度比单一灰色预测模型更高、更加准确;(2)采用马尔可夫链方法获得该组合模型的偏差规律,并依照此规律对预测结果进行修正,即由一个单一的预测数值修正成为区间和概率组成的预测范围;(3)通过比较2016年～2017年的客运量实际值、组合预测模型的单一预测值和Markov链修正的预测区间值,发现Markov链修正的预测结果与客运量实际值的吻合性良好,进一步验证此预测方法的可信性。