基于混沌理论的高速公路网短时交通流量预测研究

随着高速公路网的建成及其交通流量的不断增大,对高速路网交通流实时控制和诱导服务的需求日益突出,而高速公路网短时交通流量的预测,不仅是交通流实时控制和诱导服务的基础和依据,而且预测结果的准确性对改善高速公路网的通行能力和服务水平有重要影响。基于混沌时间序列分析和预测的理论,建立了高速公路网短时交通流预测模型,计算给定区域高速公路网多断面短时交通流量预测值,结果表明利用多维混沌时间序列法预测高速公路网短时交通流量可行且具有较高的精度。     

基于协同航路技术的航路资源分配方法研究

为减轻扇区拥挤,科学地利用扇区时隙资源,降低航班延误损失,本文研究了航路资源分配方法,将研究重点放到航路上,并建立了以航班总延误损失最小为目标,以扇区容量为约束的简化数学模型,该模型可以让航空公司灵活、自主地为航班确立优先等级。本文选择航班实际数据进行仿真,并使用优化软件对模型进行求解,算例仿真结果表明,所提方法能够大...     

基于三轴重复荷载沥青路面车辙预估的研究

通过对沥青混凝土车辙发生及发展的分析,车辙与沥青混凝土内部温度、材料性能、路面结构、行车荷载、行车速度有很大的关系.通过单因素分析法对各影响因子与车辙总变形建立了关系;而对于路面材料性能方面,选用三轴重复荷载试验进行了模拟,并用其结果--流变数F<,N>来表征沥青混凝土的抗车辙性能,并建立了关系,结果表明预估精度可靠,...     

多孔管孔出流速度和流量影响因素数值仿真及试验

本文通过控制变量法进行工况设计,对多孔管进行数值模拟和试验对比,分别研究多孔管管径、管长、孔径、孔间距、水压五个变量对多孔管孔出流速及流量的影响。使用ANSYS软件中的DesignModeler模块进行几何建模,ICEM中的O-Block技术进行流体计算域网格划分,Fluent软件进行求解。研究发现,多孔管管内径和管长的增加均使孔出流速和出流量减小,管长度的增加会影响孔出流沿程的均匀性;孔径的增大使孔出流速明显减小,且影响孔出流沿程的均匀分布,出流量受孔径的影响较复杂,在孔径不超过2.5mm时可以认为出流量与孔径的平方成正比;孔间距的增大对孔出流速和沿程均匀分布基本无影响,而与出流量成正比。最后将数值模拟结果和试验进行对比,发现试验数据所反映的多孔管出流量与管内径、管长、孔径和孔间距的关系与数值模拟基本吻合,而试验中管的出流量普遍比数值模拟小。     

Origin–destination synthesis for aviation network data: examining hub operations in the domestic and international US markets

Hub‐and‐spoke networking is a key feature of current aviation markets in which hubs, as connecting points, function to consolidate and redistribute flows. This indicates that observation of traffic on a segment does not necessarily convey information about the origin to destination routing of passenger journeys because of the unavoidable detours in the system. This paper examines the heterogeneity of the flow composition in domestic and international US markets, which in turn allows us to observe the variation of operations across major hubs. A modified Route Flow Estimator for origin–destination synthesis (or origin–destination matrix estimation) is designed to decompose the segment traffic into itinerary‐based passenger trips. Several public and commercial databases, which are easily accessible, are exploited (and reconciled) for the model in order to (i) generate possible trip itineraries using those segment markets, and (ii) link data‐driven operational conditions with the underlying segment flows. The results are validated with US domestic trip observations and empirical knowledge related to the air transportation system. Then, the variability of the hub operations is examined based on sensitivity tests using the model parameters. From the resolution of itinerary‐based estimates, we observe that major airports' hub operations are spatially uneven, particularly with respect to domestic and international connecting passengers. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Network equilibrium models with battery electric vehicles

The limited driving ranges, the scarcity of recharging stations and potentially long battery recharging or swapping time inevitably affect route choices of drivers of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). When traveling between their origins and destinations, this paper assumes that BEV drivers select routes and decide battery recharging plans to minimize their trip times or costs while making sure to complete their trips without running out of charge. With different considerations of flow dependency of energy consumption of BEVs and recharging time, three mathematical models are formulated to describe the resulting network equilibrium flow distributions on regional or metropolitan road networks. Solution algorithms are proposed to solve these models efficiently. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the models and solution algorithms.     

哈尔滨地铁一号线的客流预测

本文根据轨道交通客流预测的实际特点,应用修正后的四阶段模型对哈尔滨市地铁一号线的客流进行了预测,并得出预测结果。通过分析,证明了四阶段预测方法的可行性及合理性。     

某型汽油机进气道流动数值分析

为了得到某型汽油机进气道的流量系数和滚流比,验证模拟计算与试验测量的准确度,文章利用AVL-FIRE软件对某汽油机进气道的气流运动进行CFD分析,并将模拟计算值与试验测量值进行比较。通过模拟计算,得到了各模拟工况下的流量系数和滚流比。结果表明:该汽油机最大气门升程时进气道的流量系数在0.6左右。进气道内部形成了较明显的滚流。模拟计算可以较好地预测试验测量结果,可以用来指导进气道设计。     

船载养殖水体纵摇运动下流场特性数值分析

发展以大型游弋式养殖工船可为深蓝渔业提供新的养殖手段。本文基于STAR-CCM数值计算软件研究了纵摇运动下养殖液舱内流场特性和壁面压力,建立了养殖液舱内适渔性的评估方法。典型海况中船舶纵摇运动对养殖液舱中流场的影响研究表明：当养殖液舱纵摇频率一定时,液舱内流速及壁面压力随纵摇幅值增大而增大；当养殖液舱纵摇与养殖水体发生共振时,液舱内流速及壁面压力急剧增大,对养殖对象安全及结构强度均有较大不利影响。对于海上养殖工船的养殖安全运行,选择风浪流条件合适的渔场,结合船体耐波性研究,优化船体型线,调节养殖舱水体固有频率,避开共振运动,是养殖工船适渔性研究的一个重要方向。     

Short/medium-term prediction for the aviation emissions in the en route airspace considering the fluctuation in air traffic demand

This paper proposes a novel short/medium-term prediction method for aviation emissions distribution in en route airspace. An en route traffic demand model characterizing both the dynamics and the fluctuation of the actual traffic demand is developed, based on which the variation and the uncertainty of the short/medium-term traffic growth are predicted. Building on the demand forecast the Boeing Fuel Flow Method 2 is applied to estimate the fuel consumption and the resulting aviation emissions in the en route airspace. Based on the traffic demand prediction and the en route emissions estimation, an aviation emissions prediction model is built, which can be used to forecast the generation of en route emissions with uncertainty limits. The developed method is applied to a real data set from Hefei Area Control Center for the en route emission prediction in the next 5 years, with time granularities of both months and years. To validate the uncertainty limits associated with the emission prediction, this paper also presents the prediction results based on future traffic demand derived from the regression model widely adopted by FAA and Eurocontrol. The analysis of the case study shows that the proposed method can characterize well the dynamics and the fluctuation of the en route emissions, thereby providing satisfactory prediction results with appropriate uncertainty limits. The prediction results show a gradual growth at an average annual rate of 7.74%, and the monthly prediction results reveal distinct fluctuation patterns in the growth.