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61.
Integrated land use and transportation forecasting models are used to assist decision-makers in the policy analysis and infrastructure capital improvement selection process. These models are typically given precise, point-estimate inputs that are mathematically linked, through a series of submodels, to forecasted model outputs. These point-estimate inputs represent an unrealistic level of precision and a growing body of research is focusing on statistical techniques to model uncertainty in model inputs and parameters and tracking the effects of this uncertainty through the various submodels to the model outputs. This paper presents an uncertainty analysis of the Large Zone Economic Module (LZEM) of the Simple, Efficient, Elegant, and Effective Model (SE3M) of land use and transportation. Three case-study implementations of the model are used to obtain a reasonably sound approximation of how uncertainty affects LZEM outputs: Guam, Puerto Rico, and Oahu, Hawaii. These case studies were the subject of an early transferability study with SE3M and were selected based on both their insularity and diverse physical, economic, and demographic geographies. The findings of this research demonstrate that LZEM has a robust framework, with the potential to estimate error both in the positive and negative direction under uncertain input/parameter conditions. 相似文献
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Spiros M. Karakostas 《运输规划与技术》2017,40(3):305-326
The optimal allocation of multiple land uses constitutes a complex multi-objective optimization problem with unknown feasible objective space and optimal planning alternatives. Despite the effectiveness of evolutionary algorithms to capture the underlying Pareto set of optimum maps, land use planners are bound to pursue the best possible spatial allocation of each use within an enormous population of non-dominated solutions. This article presents a novel post-processing methodology enhancing the comparative evaluation of alternative planning approaches without making any assumptions about the (relative) importance of each objective function. The proposed consolidated post-processing module is applied in a land use planning paradigm, revealing: (a) the existence of substantial planning guidelines whose validity is not affected by the relative significance of each criterion and (b) the variable planning component emerging from the (varying) relative importance of objective functions. Such planning feedback could not be extracted by the exhaustive review of non-dominated maps. 相似文献
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为了研究重型车在国六边界条件相对于常温常压下的排放变化,在海拔环境仓重型车转鼓上用便携式排放测试设备测试了1辆国六阶段的重型车,比较了四种环境条件下的排放。结果表明:对于CO2、CO和PN分析,海拔的增加和温度的降低都造成排放恶劣,但海拔的影响更大,对于CO2,2400米边界条件下相对于常温常压排放因子增加8.7%,比排放增加19.3%,对于CO,2400米边界条件下相对于常温常压排放因子增加199.0%,比排放增加197.9%,对于PN,2400米边界条件下相对于常温常压排放因子增加688.1%,比排放增加665.1%,远超-7℃环境下的排放增长量。对于NOX,温度和海拔边界条件都对NOX都是有恶化影响,温度边界条件相对于海拔边界条件,影响更大,-7℃环境下,相对于常温常压,排放因子增加26.6%,比排放增加22.4%,超过国六a和国六b的海拔边界条件下的增长量。 相似文献
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The relationship between land use and intrazonal trip making behaviors: Evidence and implications 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper addresses the relationship between land use, destination selection, and travel mode choice. Specifically, it focuses on intrazonal trips, a sub-category of trip making where both trip origin and trip destination are contained in the same geographic unit of analysis, using data from the 1994 Household Activity and Travel Diary Survey conducted by Portland Metro. Using multinomial logit and binary logistic models to measure travel mode choice and decision to internalize trips, the evidence supports the conclusions that (1) intrazonal trips characteristics suggest mode choice for these trips might be influenced by urban form, which in turn affects regional trip distribution; (2) there is a threshold effect in the ability of economic diversity/mixed use to alter travel behavior; and (3) greater emphasis to destinations within the area where an individual’s home is located needs to be given in trip distribution models. 相似文献
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从自由湍流噪声、壁面湍流噪声、转子噪声和空腔流动4 个方面对流致噪声机理及预报方法进行综述。对目前工程应用中的3个主要流致噪声预报方法,即Lighthill声比拟理论、Kirchhoff方法和涡声理论的基本原理及适用性进行详细讨论,并对流致噪声数值模拟方法进行总结。其中,Lighthill声比拟理论属噪声源先验理论,虽方便应用但不能描述声流相互作用基础问题;Kirchhoff方法在运用的过程中虽不需要确切获知源的属性,但声源区的计算精度很重要;涡声理论在声流相互作用等领域有着良好的研究前景。自由湍流噪声以四极子雷诺应力源为主,存在如螺旋桨等固壁边界时则会产生偶极子源,在低马赫数流动中是更为有效的声源。 相似文献
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