The price of uncertainty in pavement infrastructure management planning: An integer programming approach

Currently there is a true dichotomy in the pavement maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) literature. On the one hand, there are integer programming-based models that assume that parameters are deterministically known. On the other extreme, there are stochastic models, with the most popular class being based on the theory of Markov decision processes that are able to account for various sources of uncertainties observed in the real-world. In this paper, we present an integer programming-based alternative to account for these uncertainties. A critical feature of the proposed models is that they provide – a priori – probabilistic guarantees that the prescribed M&R decisions would result in pavement condition scores that are above their critical service levels, using minimal assumptions regarding the sources of uncertainty. By construction of the models, we can easily determine the additional budget requirements when additional sources of uncertainty are considered, starting from a fully deterministic model. We have coined this additional budget requirement the price of uncertainty to distinguish from previous related work where additional budget requirements were studied due to parameter uncertainties in stochastic models. A numerical case study presents valuable insights into the price of uncertainty and shows that it can be large.     

城市客运模式选择研究

国内目前各城市的客运发展存在着地域之间不平衡,发展面临问题众多的局面,行业管理存在较多待破解的关键性问题.本文从城市客运管理运营模式作为研究视角,通过审视和比较世界不同城市交通的发展模式,结合影响城市客运模式的主要决定因素,论证国内目前的发展阶段和城市客运模式,研究提出适合于中国特点的、可持续发展的城市交通发展模式.     

基于马尔可夫过程的快速路OD矩阵估计方法

为得到城市快速路网络的OD矩阵,引入马尔可夫理论.运用吸收马尔可夫过程对快速路网络进行建模分析,给出相应求解算法推导路段流量,小区OD矩阵表达式,并介绍了运用MATLAB软件进行矩阵求解的方法.最后进行了算例分析,利用VISSIM仿真,通过布设线圈检测器,对OD矩阵估计模型及算法进行精度评价.结果显示,模型可很好地拟合...     

广东省港口物流发展及其战略选择*

深入剖析广东省港口物流发展影响因素,构建灰关联模型,对其进行定量与定性分析。结果表明:集装箱吞吐量和生产总值GDP对港口物流发展起主导作用,港口固定资产投资额和海关进出口总额拉动作用明显。提出"打造集装箱竞争优势、建设技术密集型智能港、构建以港口为核心"的供应链体系的建议,以期为港口物流发展战略转型提供决策参考。     

基于MATLAB的发动机功率计算优化方法研究

发动机功率决定汽车动力性能,在分析发动机功率确定方法的基础上,介绍发动机功率计算优化方法,根据转速的动态确定和拟合相关变量,分析发动机功率计算的影响因素和动态路径,建立基于MATLAB的可以实时求解发动机功率的模型,利用MATLAB的运算工具和强大运算能力,对汽车的动力性设计提供有力的实践计算方法。     

多孔管孔出流速度和流量影响因素数值仿真及试验

本文通过控制变量法进行工况设计,对多孔管进行数值模拟和试验对比,分别研究多孔管管径、管长、孔径、孔间距、水压五个变量对多孔管孔出流速及流量的影响。使用ANSYS软件中的DesignModeler模块进行几何建模,ICEM中的O-Block技术进行流体计算域网格划分,Fluent软件进行求解。研究发现,多孔管管内径和管长的增加均使孔出流速和出流量减小,管长度的增加会影响孔出流沿程的均匀性;孔径的增大使孔出流速明显减小,且影响孔出流沿程的均匀分布,出流量受孔径的影响较复杂,在孔径不超过2.5mm时可以认为出流量与孔径的平方成正比;孔间距的增大对孔出流速和沿程均匀分布基本无影响,而与出流量成正比。最后将数值模拟结果和试验进行对比,发现试验数据所反映的多孔管出流量与管内径、管长、孔径和孔间距的关系与数值模拟基本吻合,而试验中管的出流量普遍比数值模拟小。     

预应力混凝土槽形梁静力行为研究

为了解槽形梁静力行为,进行了一片预制预应力混凝土槽形梁的模型试验,分别考虑跨中最大弯矩及梁端最大剪力两种荷载工况对试验模型进行加载,测试了试验模型的控制断面的应力、变形.并采用非线性有限元分析方法对槽形梁的力学特性进行了研究.试验和研究得到了如下结论:该槽形梁的剪力滞效应较为突出,具有明显的开口薄壁杆件特征,底板的空间板效应明显,在设计荷载作用下结构处于线弹性状态,具有一定的安全储备.     

一种基于改进的减缩模型修正方法

提出一种改进的模型修正方法,该方法采用多目标优化技术使得结构的减缩模型与实测结果相吻合。即首先建立一个多目标优化模型,其中包括一个关于单元修正系数的隐式非线性特征方程组,然后通过遗传算法来求解该多目标优化问题,来同时实现模型修正和损伤检测。文中通过对一个悬臂梁的数值仿真,表明本文所提出的方法的有效性,即在较大的测量噪声的情况下,同时具有模型修正和损伤检测两种功能,且较改进前的基于迭代的方法具有更好的噪声鲁棒性。     

Quantifying uncertainty in high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem models

Marine ecosystem models are becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated, and are being used to estimate the effects of future changes in the earth system with a view to informing important policy decisions. Despite their potential importance, far too little attention has been, and is generally, paid to model errors and the extent to which model outputs actually relate to real-world processes. With the increasing complexity of the models themselves comes an increasing complexity among model results. If we are to develop useful modelling tools for the marine environment we need to be able to understand and quantify the uncertainties inherent in the simulations. Analysing errors within highly multivariate model outputs, and relating them to even more complex and multivariate observational data, are not trivial tasks. Here we describe the application of a series of techniques, including a 2-stage self-organising map (SOM), non-parametric multivariate analysis, and error statistics, to a complex spatio-temporal model run for the period 1988–1989 in the Southern North Sea, coinciding with the North Sea Project which collected a wealth of observational data. We use model output, large spatio-temporally resolved data sets and a combination of methodologies (SOM, MDS, uncertainty metrics) to simplify the problem and to provide tractable information on model performance. The use of a SOM as a clustering tool allows us to simplify the dimensions of the problem while the use of MDS on independent data grouped according to the SOM classification allows us to validate the SOM. The combination of classification and uncertainty metrics allows us to pinpoint the variables and associated processes which require attention in each region. We recommend the use of this combination of techniques for simplifying complex comparisons of model outputs with real data, and analysis of error distributions.     

船舶操纵模拟器中DIS/HLA网关原型的设计

通过详细分析网关的具体工作流程，提出了网关应具备的基本功能，并在此基础上对网关的模块进行了设计与实现。通过网关原型的设计实现，达到了快速将原有DIS船舶模拟器与HLA系统互连，为进一步实现大规模的分布航海仿真提供了基础。