基于组合预测模型的铁路货运量预测研究

为了进一步提高铁路货运量的预测精度,提出基于乘积季节模型与引入注意力机制(Attention Mechanism)的长短期记忆(Long Short-Term Memory)模型的组合预测模型.首先建立乘积季节模型、LSTM模型与引入注意力机制的LSTM模型,然后利用误差修正法分别将2种LSTM模型与乘积季节模型组合起...     

Protective effect of polymer coating on the circular steel plate response to near-field underwater explosions

To understand the intrinsic strong interaction between the soft coating and near-field underwater explosion, a series of comparative live fire tests are implemented. Nine steel circular plates with three configurations (i.e. rubber coated plate, foam coated plate and bare plate) are tested using 1.5 g PETN detonator. The stand-off between the plate center and explosive charge is ranged from 3.41 to 1.14 times of the maximum bubble radius. The transient strain history of the plate and acceleration history of the metal base fixture are monitored. The whole explosion process including local cavitation and bubble motion is recorded by an APX-RS high speed camera. Test results show that the compressibility of coating layer is the dominative factor that controls its protective performance in the shock wave loading phase. The more compressible foam coating distinctly reduce the shock wave intensity by local cavitation before enters the densification phase, while the explosion bubble shape and even the direction of water jet can also be changed. But the attenuation performance in the bubble loading phase is not as optimistic as that in the shock wave phase because more deformation space is required while the core has often entered the densification phase.     

Connectivity analysis of the global shipping network by eigenvalue decomposition

ABSTRACT

Maritime shipping necessitates flexible and cost-effective port access worldwide through the global shipping network. This paper presents an efficient method to identify major port communities, and analyses the network connectivity of the global shipping network based on community structure. The global shipping network is represented by a signless Laplacian matrix which can be decomposed to generate its eigenvectors and corresponding eigenvalues. The largest gaps between the eigenvalues were then used to determine the optimal number of communities within the network. The eigenvalue decomposition method offers the advantage of detecting port communities without relying on a priori assumption about the number of communities and the size of each community. By applying this method to a dataset collected from seven world leading liner shipping companies, we found that the ports are clustered into three communities in the global container shipping network, which is consistent with the major container trade routes. The sparse linkages between port communities indicate where access is relatively poor.     

客车捎带模式下高铁快捷货物输送方案研究

以提高高铁快运当日达产品的时效性、收益率为核心,对既有载客动车组捎带模式下的快捷货物输送方案进行优化。借助时空网络以列车运行成本与时间惩罚费用之和最小为目标,同时满足货主时限、列车容量以及列车停站方案等约束,建立输送方案优化模型,通过匈牙利算法,并借助Matlab的Yalmip工具箱求解模型。以兰州西站至天水南站、宝鸡南站及西安北站部分时间段的快捷货物运输需求为背景进行算例分析,验证模型的有效性。结果表明合理估算列车装载容量及货物的延迟时限对输送方案的选择起重要作用。     

基于时延特性建模的多断面短时交通流预测

针对现有交通流预测方法未充分考虑多断面车流演变规律，提出基于时延特性建模的时空相关性计算方法. 该方法采用对不同断面、不同时刻交通流的分布相似性度量，对输入的车辆到达数据序列进行切割构建时空相似度矩阵，得到相邻断面之间的时延参数. 基于时延特性建模，将多断面之间的流量信息进行融合，使用长短时记忆(LSTM)网络进行流量预测. 通过对实际路段数据的预测和结果分析，验证所提方法的有效性和实用性.     

基于传播模型的非机动车违规过街行为研究

为研究信号交叉口非机动车违规过街行为，选取西安市的7个信号交叉口，通过视频拍摄获取资料，应用复杂网络来分析非机动车网络的结构特征和演化规律.建立了交叉口非机动车网络，基于SI模型的基本思想，提出了非机动车违规过街行为的传播模型.并通过python程序进行模拟分析，在不同的网络结构和不同的传播率下，获取了非机动车违规过街的行为趋势.结果表明：随着等待时间的增加，一旦有骑行者闯红灯，更多的骑行者将加入到违规过街的行列；在内向度和外向度方面，电动自行车均高于普通自行车；非机动车违规行为随着传播率及非机动车流量的增加而增加.     

Obsolete Maps and Coastal Management: Case Studies from Northwest Ireland

On dynamic coastal sites, subject to rapid and sometimes unpredictable shoreline changes, management problems can be aggravated if legally authoritative maps are obsolete. These difficulties are illustrated by two case studies from County Donegal in northwest Ireland. The first case study outlines the problems that arise where statutory functional area boundaries are based on a near century-old map. The second case study deals with the problems of planning development on a site where a customized map only a few years old has been rendered obsolete by rapid coastal erosion. Other problems are caused by the inappropriate use of maps. Suggestions are made to mitigate the effects of outdated maps.     

基于GOOSE机制的城市轨道交通中压环网继电保护方案优化

针对目前城市轨道交通中压环网继电保护存在的问题,提出了基于GOOSE(面向通用对象的变电站事件)机制的中压环网的继电保护优化方案,有效地解决了传统过流保护级差配合困难的问题.该方案是以GOOSE光纤以太网为基础,以闭锁逻辑为核心的数字通信电流保护方案.将GOOSE信号进行分类,并对中压供电环网系统各种可能出现的故障进行动作行为分析.最后,通过RTDS(动态数字仿真系统)仿真试验,证明该方案在各种故障情况下,都能保证继电保护的选择性、速动性、灵敏性和可靠性.     

Plate scanning tools to obtain travel times in traffic networks

The management of vehicle travel times has been shown to be fundamental to traffic network analysis. To collect travel time measurement, some methods focus solely on isolated links or highway segments, and where two measurement points, at the beginning and at the end of a section, are deemed sufficient to evaluate users' travel time. However, in many cases, transport studies involve networks in which the problem is more complex. This article takes advantage of the plate scanning technique to propose an algorithm that minimizes the required number of registering devices and their location in order to identify vehicles candidates to compute the travel times of a given set of routes (or subroutes). The merits of the proposed method are explained using simple examples and are illustrated by its application to the real network of Ciudad Real.