基于层次分析法的区间估计的车站能力查定误差因子分析研究

本文归纳总结了车站能力查定计算过程中存在的多种影响因素,深入分析了其产生原因和不可避免性。然后利用层次分析法的区间估计方法计算得出各种误差因子对计算结果的影响权重大小,并对比不同误差因子的权重区间,筛选出强误差因子,剔除弱误差因子,为精确计算车站能力值提供依据。     

发动机系统可靠性分析与评估

针对发动机试验昂贵以及试验条件无法真实再现发动机使用环境的情况,提出利用“三包”信息作为评估发动机使用可靠性的数据源。以发动机完整数据服从的NHPP模型为基础,结合“三包”信息普遍存在的删失现象,提出新模型;该模型既适用于完整数据,也适用于删失数据。实例证明,利用该模型计算的参数与实际统计结果的误差小于2%,最后评估得到发动机的可靠性水平。     

不等保护喷泉码用于应答器报文编码的可行性研究

提出将具有不等差错保护特性数字喷泉码作为欧标高速铁路应答器报文编码方案.由于其不依赖重传、译码过程与编码符号到达译码端次序无关等特性非常适于应答器报文传输场景.针对欧标应答器报文长度特征,本文在不同码长条件下对基于权重的不等差错保护算法、拓展窗口喷泉码及复制窗口不等保护算法的性能进行对比分析,通过Matlab仿真得到3种算法在不同码长条件下的性能.验证采用基于喷泉码的不等差错保护方法作为铁路应答器长报文编码方案的可行性.     

自行加榴炮射击误差的仿真研究

射击精度可以用射击误差表示,依据某自行加榴炮射表,结合弹道理论分析方法,使用蒙特卡洛法对其射击精度进行误差特性仿真,找出影响射击精度的主要误差来源,此方法可以推广应用到其他武器系统。     

水下目标深度测量误差源分析

首先研究了在深海环境下,采用基于三阵元垂直线列阵的水声探测系统进行水下目标深度测量的基本原理.然后从随机误差和阵元配置偏差的角度,对水下目标深度测量的误差源进行了理论分析,并推导了相关公式.此外,对于相干多途水声信道干扰给水下目标深度测量精度的影响,也作了初步的理论分析.通过仿真实验,总结出各误差源对水下目标深度测量精度影响的规律,研究结果为进一步开展水下目标深度测量研究、提高测量精度奠定了基础.     

On the numerical accuracy of the prediction of resistance coefficients in ship stern flow calculations

This article presents a study on the accuracy of the numerical determination of the friction and pressure resistance coefficients of ship hulls. The investigation was carried out for the KVLCC2 tanker at model- and full-scale Reynolds numbers. Gravity waves were neglected, i.e., we adopted the so-called double-model flow. Single-block grids with H–O topology were adopted for all the calculations. Three eddy viscosity models were employed: the one-equation eddy viscosity and the two-equation models proposed by Menter and the TNT version of the two-equation k-ω model. Verification exercises were performed in sets of nearly geometrically similar grids with different densities in the streamwise, normal, and girthwise directions. The friction and pressure resistance coefficients were calculated for different levels of the iterative error and for computational domains of different size. The results show that on the level of grid refinement used, it is possible to calculate the viscous resistance coefficients in H–O grids that do not match the ship contour with a numerical uncertainty of less than 1%. The differences between the predictions of different turbulence models were larger than the numerical uncertainty; however, these differences tended to decrease with increases in the Reynolds number. The pressure resistance was remarkably sensitive to domain size and far-field boundary conditions. Either a large domain or the application of a viscous–inviscid interaction procedure is needed for reliable results. This work was presented in part at the International Conference on Computational Methods in Marine Engineering—MARINE 2007, Barcelona, June 3–4, 2007.     

深水试验水池大型升降平台多电机同步控制

深水试验水池是开展深海装备开发必不可少的试验手段,大型升降平台是其中的关键设备.大型高精度、高转速传动系统的多电机同步控制是最为核心的问题之一.同步控制算法的优劣直接影响系统的性能与可靠性.提出深水试验水池大型升降平台多电机同步协调控制系统构成方案,并提出一种新的基于拉力死区误差均衡及中心耦合误差的升降平台多电机同步协调控制策略,实现了拉力控制和位置控制的解耦;同时,提出了多电机控制的升降平台仿真系统,其仿真结果表明:所提出的控制策略同步稳定性能高、收敛速度快,具有很高的应用价值.     

新型集装箱汽车衡称重技术与误差分析研究

为了对一辆集卡装载的2个20英尺集装箱进行分别称重,设计了新的汽车衡结构,推导出计算公式并进行实验验证,得到了一种可以保证作业安全且能为港口和货主接受的集装箱汽车衡称重方法。     

Investigating micro-simulation error in activity-based travel demand forecasting: a case study of the FEATHERS framework

Activity-based models of travel demand have received considerable attention in transportation planning and forecasting in recent years. However, in most cases they use a micro-simulation approach, thereby inevitably including a stochastic error that is caused by the statistical distributions of random components. As a consequence, running a transport micro-simulation model several times with the same input will generate different outputs, which baffles practitioners in applying such a model and in interpreting the results. A common approach is therefore to run the model multiple times and to use the average value of the results. The question then becomes: what is the minimum number of model runs required to reach a stable result? In this paper, systematic experiments are carried out using Forecasting Evolutionary Activity-Travel of Households and their Environmental RepercussionS (FEATHERS), an activity-based micro-simulation modelling framework currently implemented for the Flanders region of Belgium. Six levels of geographic detail are taken into account. Three travel indices – average daily activities per person, average daily trips per person and average daily distance travelled per person, as well as their corresponding segmentations – are calculated by running the model 100 times. The results show that the more disaggregated the level, the larger the number of model runs is needed to ensure confidence. Furthermore, based on the time-dependent origin-destination table derived from the model output, traffic assignment is performed by loading it onto the Flemish road network, and the total vehicle kilometres travelled in the whole Flanders are subsequently computed. The stable results at the Flanders level provides model users with confidence that application of FEATHERS at an aggregated level requires only limited model runs.     

轨道安全监测中传感器优化配置研究

为了研究轨道结构安全监测中传感器的合理配置方法,确保城市轨道交通安全运营,通过建立桥上交叉渡线道岔模型和钢轨应变传递误差最小的目标函数,提出传感器测点选择依据和监测方案评价标准,保证监测方案的经济性、合理性。结论表明:模型数据曲线可以指导监测系统的测点位置选择;随着传感器测点数量增加,监测误差逐渐减小,但在误差比率的拐点后增加单位个数传感器带来的收益降低;通过建立误差最小准则的目标函数,结合误差指标可以评价和优化传感器布设方案;钢轨位移、附加力等指标的监测方案也可以通过本文方法确定。