Effectiveness of travel time reliability indicators in the light of the assessment of dynamic managed lane strategy

ABSTRACT

The aim of traffic management is to ensure a high quality of service for a maximum number of users by decreasing congestion and increasing safety. Uncertainty of travel times decreases the quality of service and leads end users to modify their plans regardless of the average travel time. Indicators describing travel time reliability are being developed and should be used in the future both for the optimization and for the assessment of active traffic management operations. This article discusses the efficiency of certain reliability indicators in an ex-post assessment of a traffic management strategy. Ex-post assessment is based on an observational before–after study. As some factors other than the studied management strategy may intervene between the two periods, and as most reliability indicators require knowledge of the full travel time distribution and not only its average, a methodology is developed for the identification of the impact of these exogenous factors on the whole distribution. Many reliability indicators are split into different parts allowing the identification of the part due to the management strategy impact. The methodology is tested numerically on a managed lane operation consisting of Hard Shoulder Running (HSR) at rush hour on a section of a French motorway. The variation of some reliability indicators appears misleading, whereas the splitting of the indicators increases our understanding of the strategy and highlights its impact. The paper gives the reliability assessment of the HSR field test and discusses different reliability indicators to identify their potential performances and shortcomings.     

公路生态系统服务功能分析及评估

文章探讨了公路生态系统的生态服务功能,提出价值评估指标体系及定量评估方法,为公路生态系统的恢复或重建提供理论依据,对全面、正确评价公路生态系统有积极意义。     

厦门地铁2号线钻探工程海上通航安全评估

依据港口通航现状、港口发展规划、附近海域船舶交通现况,分析通航安全形势,预测厦门轨道交通2号线跨海路段施工期间,船舶交通流可能的变化和通航环境、通航秩序的适应能力,论证在施工期间存在的通航安全风险、主要问题及通航安全保障能力,并提出保障通航安全的可行性建议和措施.     

基于名义应力法的动车组车体净水箱吊装部件疲劳强度分析

针对高速运行动车组车体悬挂设备振动疲劳损伤问题,以某型动车组车顶净水箱吊装结构为研究对象,采用名义应力法对吊装结构的焊缝部位进行疲劳强度评估.根据EN 12663标准确定净水箱的工作载荷工况,采用有限元法计算了各工况下结构的振动响应,并基于BS标准计算了焊缝疲劳评估点的寿命.假定各载荷工况出现频率相同的情况下,构造了工作载荷历程,采用Fe-safe软件对焊缝的疲劳寿命进行了仿真分析.两种方法分析结果均表明:焊缝1与焊缝2寿命最低,是结构最易发生疲劳破坏的位置;焊缝位于筋板表面的焊趾寿命低于位于主支撑板表面的焊趾寿命.     

基于裂纹扩展理论的船体结构疲劳评估

疲劳破坏是船舶结构的主要破坏形式之一。为了保证船舶结构有足够的疲劳强度,各国船级社、船厂等均建立了船舶结构疲劳强度校核规范作为船舶疲劳评估的指导性文件,尽管这些规范均是建立在S-N曲线方法基础上的,但由于S-N曲线方法存在自身无法克服的缺陷(如忽略材料的初始缺陷等),对同一节点进行计算得到的疲劳寿命大相径庭。该文作者在基于裂纹扩展理论的基础之上,给出了一套详细的船体结构疲劳评估方法,并应用此方法对大型船舶结构典型节点的疲劳寿命进行评估,以期能为完善船舶结构疲劳寿命的评估提供参考。     

Experimental Investigation of the Effect of Bow Profiles on Resistance of an Underwater Vehicle in Free Surface Motion

In this paper, towing tank experiments are conducted to study the behavior of flow on a model of the underwater vehicle with various shapes of bows, i.e. tango and standard bows in free surface motion ...     

基于层次分析法和D-S证据理论的码头风险评估

在码头风险评估过程中,目前常用的方法对风险事件发生的概率和影响上有一些主观的定性分析,带有结论上的模糊性.运用一种层次分析法和证据理论结合的方法可以提高评估的准确性和可靠度,该方法通过层次分析法确定各评估因素的权重,在此过程中用D-S证据理论对专家评分数据进行融合修正,运用D-S证据理论的合成法则确定码头的风险值.将该...     

大直径盾构隧道斜螺栓环缝抗剪特性研究

以大直径盾构隧道施工过程中管片上浮错台问题为背景,研究大直径盾构隧道环缝结构的抗剪特性,从结构承载力角度提出有效且可控的抗浮措施,并深入探究环间错台对隧道结构的影响,以确定大直径盾构隧道环间变形控制标准,减小隧道环间错台引起的管片损伤。以深圳妈湾跨海通道为依托,基于材料塑性损伤本构,考虑管片接缝细部构造,根据相关管片环缝剪切原型试验对接缝抗剪数值模拟方法的有效性进行验证。随后,利用数值模拟研究了环向接缝顺剪、逆剪和切向剪切时的错台现象和破坏特征,分析了斜螺栓、凹凸榫对环缝抗剪特性的影响,为大直径盾构隧道环缝结构的抗浮设计和安全评价提供依据。研究表明:环缝剪切错台数值计算结果与试验结果吻合良好,能够有效揭示接缝剪切过程中结构的变形特点和损伤特性;环缝接缝的剪切错台过程较为复杂,呈阶段性特征,螺栓和凹凸榫的受力状态是决定接缝抗剪特性的关键因素;凹凸榫能显著提高接缝抗剪刚度和承载力,但也带来接缝应力集中和张开过大等问题,设计和施工过程中需充分考虑接缝刚度和变形的适应性;基于环缝错台损伤分析,提出了环缝变形的三级安全评价指标,大直径盾构隧道接缝变形必须控制在Ⅱ级以内,以保证隧道的结构安全和正常使用性能。     

Using GPS-data to determine optimum electric vehicle ranges: A Michigan case study

Fuel-switching personal transportation from gasoline to electricity offers many advantages, including lower noise, zero local air pollution, and petroleum-independence. But alleviations of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are more nuanced, due to many factors, including the car’s battery range. We use GPS-based trip data to determine use type-specific, GHG-optimized ranges. The dataset comprises 412 cars and 384,869 individual trips in Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA. We use previously developed algorithms to determine driver types, such as using the car to commute or not. Calibrating an existing life cycle GHG model to a forecast, low-carbon grid for Ann Arbor, we find that the optimum range varies not only with the drive train architecture (plugin-hybrid versus battery-only) and charging technology (fast versus slow) but also with the driver type. Across the 108 scenarios we investigated, the range that yields lowest GHG varies from 65 km (55+ year old drivers, ultrafast charging, plugin-hybrid) to 158 km (16–34 year old drivers, overnight charging, battery-only). The optimum GHG reduction that electric cars offer – here conservatively measured versus gasoline-only hybrid cars – is fairly stable, between 29% (16–34 year old drivers, overnight charging, battery-only) and 46% (commuters, ultrafast charging, plugin-hybrid). The electrification of total distances is between 66% and 86%. However, if cars do not have the optimum range, these metrics drop substantially. We conclude that matching the range to drivers’ typical trip distances, charging technology, and drivetrain is a crucial pre-requisite for electric vehicles to achieve their highest potential to reduce GHG emissions in personal transportation.     

基于线性路径跟踪控制的换道避撞控制策略研究

为实现车辆自主避撞,改善道路交通安全状况,提出一种基于线性路径跟踪控制的换道避撞控制策略。为实时确定制动和换道时机,获取跟车状态下自车和前车车速、加速度、相对距离以及驾驶人制动反应时间计算制动安全距离和换道安全距离,并在此基础上分别引入制动危险系数B和换道危险系数S评估制动与换道风险,使得车辆发生追尾碰撞的危险程度和主动干预阈值更直观。根据车辆期望横向加速度和期望横向位移的变化特性,采用5次多项式法规划符合驾驶人换道避撞特性的避撞路径。为保证换道避撞过程中驾驶人的安全舒适,采用最大横向加速度约束换道避撞轨迹。为实现对换道避撞路径的线性跟踪控制,保证车辆的操纵稳定性和横摆稳定性,基于车辆稳态动力学模型建立前馈控制,结合线性反馈控制消除换道路径的位置和横摆角偏差,修正参考路径实现直车道场景追尾避撞控制。仿真和实车交叉验证试验表明：根据车辆期望横向加速度和期望横向位移建立的符合驾驶人换道避撞特性的五次多项式换道路径与驾驶人实际换道避撞路径基本吻合,结合碰撞时间和车间时距的制动避撞控制策略能够在保证车辆行驶安全舒适性的同时有效避免车辆追尾碰撞,减少交通事故的发生。