装载机与运输车辆的最佳匹配（1）

运用排队论及优化方法，建立装载机一汽车相互配合系统的优化数学模型，并以此模型对该系统进行优化计算，确定出最佳的汽车与装载机斗容量之比、最合理的车辆数及组织形式，同时分析了斗容比和车辆数对系统经济性的影响，总结出与各种装载机相配合的汽车载重量和车辆数。     

基于Rough Set理论的铁路货运量预测

利用Rough Set理论通过对数据进行分析和推理发现隐含知识的优点，在结合该理论与铁路货运量预测要求的基础上，提出一个基于Rough Set理论的铁路货运量预测流程；合理选择统计指标并将相关原始数据代人预测流程涉及的各步骤后，得出预测我国铁路货运量发展水平的规则集；利用该规则集预测了“十五”期间我国铁路货运量的发展水平；该规则集有望在我国“十一五”规划的制定中发挥一定的参考作用。     

连续梁桥荷载试验梁格法分析

研究目的:桥梁荷载试验是鉴定桥梁承载能力、评估桥梁现状的重要手段。用合理的计算方法进行结构分析尤为重要。本文利用梁格法建立模型,通过连续梁桥荷载试验分析,探讨桥梁荷载试验计算和成果分析中存在的问题。研究结论:通过工程实践,经过梁格法有限元计算所得的结果与实际试验结果进行对比分析,得出梁格法可以有效地实现荷载试验所需的结构构件的内力和挠度状态,并总结了梁格法建模时横梁的联结方法。同时指出,二期恒载对结构的影响程度不容忽视。利用本方法进行的荷载试验计算值与试验值比较吻合,其结果对类似工程有一定指导意义。     

信号检测论在船舶了望中的应用

船舶海上了望的过程就是采集和处理海上信息并判断海上危险的过程,其重点是将威胁船舶安全的有关信息检测和筛选出来。这是一种信号检测的过程。利用实验心理学中的信号检测论揭示了望信息检测中的规律,可为海上了望信息的收集和处理提供理论依据,并确立“疑险从有”的海上信息处理原则。     

从马斯洛需求层次论看饭店餐饮服务质量的改进

饭店餐饮服务质量的好坏决定着餐饮企业的顾客满意度,决定了企业的利润,因此,提升饭店餐饮服务质量刻不容缓．从餐饮企业的角度来说,马斯洛需求层次理论也界定了餐饮服务需求的层次,认真分析饭店餐饮服务需求的不同层次以及不同层次的服务存在的问题,对提升饭店餐饮服务质量有着极其重要的意义．     

基于博弈论的公交枢纽规划布局方案评价

本文在对传统规划布局方案评价方法存在的不足进行分析的基础上，提出运用博弈论对公交枢纽规划布局方案进行评价，并给出了博弈模型和算法，以期达到最优布局。     

Weather and road geometry impact on longitudinal driving behavior: Exploratory analysis using an empirically supported acceleration modeling framework

The objective of this paper is to quantify and characterize driver behavior under different roadway geometries and weather conditions. In order to explore how a driver perceives the rapidly changing driving surrounding (i.e. different weather conditions and road geometry configurations) and executes acceleration maneuvers accordingly, this paper extends a Prospect Theory based acceleration modeling framework. A driving simulator is utilized to conduct 76 driving experiments. Foggy weather, icy and wet roadway surfaces, horizontal and vertical curves, and different lane and shoulder widths are simulated while having participants driving behind a yellow cab at speeds/headways of their choice. After studying the driving trends observed in the different driving experiments, the extended Prospect Theory based acceleration model is calibrated using the produced trajectory data. The extended Prospect Theory based model parameters are able to reflect a change in risk-perception and acceleration maneuvering when receiving different parameterized exogenous information. The results indicate that drivers invest more attention and effort to deal with the roadway challenges compared to the effort to deal with the weather conditions. Moreover, the calibrated model is used to simulate a highway segment and observe the produced fundamental diagram. The preliminary results suggest that the model is capable of capturing driver behavior under different roadway and weather conditions leading to changes in capacity and traffic disruptions.     

Simple analytical models for estimating the queue lengths from probe vehicles at traffic signals

As mobile traffic sensor technology gets more attention, mathematical models are being developed that utilize this new data type in various intelligent transportation systems applications. This study introduces simple analytical estimation models for queue lengths from tracked or probe vehicles at traffic signals using stochastic modeling approach. Developed models estimate cycle-to-cycle queue lengths by using primary parameters such as arrival rate, probe vehicle proportions, and signal phase durations. Valuable probability distributions and moment generating functions for probe information types are formulated. Fully analytical closed-form expressions are given for the case ignoring the overflow queue and approximation models are presented for the overflow case. Derived models are compared with the results from VISSIM-microscopic simulation. Analytical steady-state and cycle-to-cycle estimation errors are also derived. Numerical examples are shown for the errors of these estimators that change with probe vehicle market penetration levels, arrival rates, and volume-to-capacity ratios.     

Suitability of Decision-Theoretic Models to Public Policy Issues Concerning the Provision of Shoreline Stabilization and Hazard Management

This article examines the suitability and potential advances of decision-theoretic models from finance regarding investment decisions in shoreline stabilization projects. A set of scenarios represents the dynamics of the decision-state facing the planner and identifies factors that should be incorporated into the decision-making process. It is shown that decision models from finance can account for the risk and uncertainty inherent in shoreline stabilization projects, potentially suggest improvements and refinements to presently used cost-benefit analysis procedures, and offer new tools that can aid in decisions concerning provision of shoreline stabilization. The outcomes of these scenarios justify better planning and control of existing and future building, and that of poststorm policies. Lastly, these models allow us to explore the range of our understanding of coastal processes and interactions with shoreline stabilization projects and can identify new and useful data needed in coastal management and hazard management decisions.     

信号交叉口车辆拖延行为分析

在分析HCM2000 Back of Queue模型计算值偏大的原因中,提出了信号交叉口车辆拖延行为的概念,分析了拖延行为导致Back of Queue模型偏大的2种情况。建立了车辆拖延行为3阶段模型,重点推导了拖延行为模型中,低匀速行驶的时间与不发生拖延行为的正常状况下的停车等待时间之间的关系。根据统计分析,确定低匀速行驶的速度和时间的取值范围,在此基础上推导出车辆发生拖延行为的最大时间间隔Tmax,以及车辆发生拖延行为的条件。讨论了Tmax在考虑拖延行为的排队模型中的应用,是对考虑拖延行为的Back of Queue模型研究的进一步深化。