不确定条件下的汽车产品开发投资评价模型构建

主要提出了在不确定条件下汽车开发投资的评价模型。首先对汽车开发投资的不确定性进行了分析,然后根据总结的汽车行业不确定的特征,构建了汽车产品投资的评价模型体系,包括实物期权思想下的汽车产品开发决策模型、在专家评价模型基础上构建的汽车产品立项评价模型和在过程评价模型基础上构建的汽车产品开发过程评价模型。     

Real time transit demand prediction capturing station interactions and impact of special events

Demand for public transportation is highly affected by passengers’ experience and the level of service provided. Thus, it is vital for transit agencies to deploy adaptive strategies to respond to changes in demand or supply in a timely manner, and prevent unwanted deterioration in service quality. In this paper, a real time prediction methodology, based on univariate and multivariate state-space models, is developed to predict the short-term passenger arrivals at transit stations. A univariate state-space model is developed at the station level. Through a hierarchical clustering algorithm with correlation distance, stations with similar demand patterns are identified. A dynamic factor model is proposed for each cluster, capturing station interdependencies through a set of common factors. Both approaches can model the effect of exogenous events (such as football games). Ensemble predictions are then obtained by combining the outputs from the two models, based on their respective accuracy. We evaluate these models using data from the 32 stations on the Central line of the London Underground (LU), operated by Transport for London (TfL). The results indicate that the proposed methodology performs well in predicting short-term station arrivals for the set of test days. For most stations, ensemble prediction has the lowest mean error, as well as the smallest range of error, and exhibits more robust performance across the test days.     

Real world vehicle emissions: Their correlation with driving parameters

Vehicular population in developing countries is expected to proliferate in the coming decade, centred on Tier II and Tier III cities rather than large metropolis. WLTP is being introduced as a global instrument for emission regulation to reduce gap between standard test procedures and actual road conditions. This work aims at quantifying and discernment of the gap between WLTC and real-world conditions in an urban city in a developing country on the basis of driving cycle parameters and simulated emissions for gasoline fuelled light passenger cars. Real world driving patterns were recorded on different routes and varying traffic conditions using car-chasing technique integrated with GPS monitoring and speed sensors. Real-world driving patterns and ambient conditions were used to simulate emissions using International Vehicle Emissions model for average rate (g/km) and Comprehensive Modal Emissions Model for instantaneous emission (g/s) analysis. Cycle parameters were mathematically calculated to compare WLTC and road trips. The analyses revealed a large gap between WLTC and road conditions. CO emissions were predicted to be 155% higher than WLTC and HC and NOx emissions were estimated to be 63% and 64% higher respectively. These gaps were correlated to different driving cycle parameters. It was observed that road driving occurs at lower average speeds with higher frequency and magnitudes of accelerations. The positive kinetic energy required by road cycles, was 100% higher than WLTC and the Relative Positive Acceleration (RPA) demanded by road cycles, was found to be 60% higher in real-world driving patterns and thereby contribute to higher emissions.     

地铁设施不动产三维空间权利范围及确权方法

地铁设施不动产确权难是困扰地铁发展的一个难题。以广州为例,分析了目前地铁设施不动产确权存在的技术问题,并提出了解决思路;提出了不动产三维空间要素体系、权利体系及空间权利界限的确定方法,选取广州市地铁石壁站为实例对象,详细解析了地铁不动产确权方法。从实例的实施效果看,所研究的成果能够解决地铁设施不动产的确权问题。     

船舶电站微机实时和模拟控制系统

本文介绍了船舶电站微机实时和模拟控制系统的组成、功能、结构和程序设计。     

房地产业和其它产业结合的投资机会分析

中国房地产业发展到一定程度,需要新的投资机会。当前,旅游、体育、教育等产业发展很快,如果把这些产业同房地产业结合起来,房地产业将会有更好的机遇。但是, 这也是一个挑战,在房地产投资开发中,也应该注意一些问题。房地产开发商只有找到它们的最佳结合点,因地制宜。中国房地产业才能迎来再一次飞跃。     

国有资产保值增值中存在的几个问题及对策分析

随着企业改革和结构调整进一步深入,我国国有资产管理中存在的一些问题日益显露,本文在分析了当前国有资产管理中存在的几个问题及国有资产流失的原因的基础上,对如何使国有资产保值增值提出了相应的对策。     

某车型减小最小转弯半径优化及验证

在底盘平台化大趋势下,年款车型的底盘基本沿用。但随着人们对整车性能如机动性等提出了更高的要求,此时需要在原平台基础上,在保证改动量最小化基础上进行分析及实车验证,以满足市场要求。文章在影响因素理论分析基础上,结合整车开发范围定义,最终针对某款车型选定增大转向器行程方案,并完成理论分析及实车验证,仅花费数万元的修模代价,即实现对最小转弯半径优化,解决了市场抱怨问题。     

中国城市乘用车实际行驶工况的研究

分析了中国3个典型城市(北京、上海和广州)车辆行驶的速度、怠速、最大速度、加速度以及行程等特征及其分布特征;结合交通特性研究了车辆行驶运动学水平。研究表明,现行采用ECE15工况与实际行驶工况相比,车辆燃油消耗被低估约10%;覆盖的车辆工况范围远远小于实际行驶工况,不适用于车辆设计开发要求。     

推动中国中铁快速协调发展房地产业的若干战略问题

房地产业是建筑业的一个重要组成部分,而且是其中发展最迅速的一部分。国有大型建筑龙头企业介入房地产业,对其结构布局和健康发展必将产生深远的影响。中国中铁副总裁姚桂清通过本文充分分析了当前房地产地位和作用,分析了房地产业所面临的形势,以及加快发展房地产业对企业总体发展的影响,进一步从战略的高度提出了中国铁路工程总公司发展房地产业的总体思路——"打造一个品牌、调动两个积极性、面向三个市场、达到四化要求、实现五大目标"和"两步走"战略目标,并相应地提出了实现该战略目标的"五大战略",即资源战略、管控战略、品牌战略、"走出去"战略和人才战略。本刊特此刊出,以供业界从一个新的角度认识中国房地产业的发展。