高速公路工程建设监理的责任与风险防范

对高速公路工程建设监理的责任风险作了较系统的分析,并结合工作实践经验提出了监理责任风险的防范措施。     

Strategies for customer service level protection under multi-echelon supply chain disruption risk

We model a multi-echelon system where disruptions can occur at any stage and evaluate multiple strategies for protecting customer service if a disruption should occur. The strategies considered take advantage of the network itself and include satisfying demand from an alternate location in the network, procuring material or transportation from an alternate source or route, and holding strategic inventory reserves throughout the network. Unmet demand is modeled using a mix of backordering and lost sales. We conduct numerical analysis and provide recommendations on selecting strategic mitigation methods to diminish the impact of disruptions on customer service. We demonstrate that the greatest service level improvements can be made by providing both proactive inventory placement to cover short disruptions or the start of long disruptions, and reactive back-up methods to help the supply chain recover after long or permanent disruptions.     

船舶在航行过渡区的危险性评价方法研究

在最近对船舶航行危险性研究成果的基础上,根据船舶所处的不同航行水域而面临的航行危险性程度不同的特点,首次提出了“航行过渡区”概念。并应用模糊集理论,提出船舶在“航行过渡区”的危险性评价模型。这对于航海模拟器训练和实船上的船舶航行危险性评价有重要意义。     

船舶溢油风险评估方法的探讨

船舶溢油风险评估在船舶防污染管理方面应用十分广泛,但如何进行评估,尚没有一个统一的方法。笔者在承担船舶溢油风险评估项目过程中,对风险评估方法进行了一些探索,文中将根据自己的体会,就风险评估中的一些难点问题与大家讨论。     

Infrastructure-cooperative algorithm for effective intersection collision avoidance

To guarantee the road safety by avoiding collisions at the intersections is one of the major tasks of intelligent transportation systems (ITSs), which contributes to the minimal fatalities and property loss in crashes. This paper proposes an effective algorithm for infrastructure-cooperative intersection accident pre-warning system with the aid of vehicular communications. The proposed algorithm realizes accurate and efficient collision avoidances through five steps, i.e., defining variable, reasoning the vehicles evolution state, verifying safe driving behavior, assessing risk, and making decision. The critical factors are theoretically analyzed, and a vehicle state evolution model based on the Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) is established. The efficient risk assessment method based on identifying the dangerous driving behavior at intersection and different collision avoidance strategies are proposed according to the actual situation. Finally, extensive simulations are carried out to verify the performance of the proposal, and simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can effectively detect risk and accurately migrate the collision.     

考虑维修的FPSO外输作业风险分析

对浮式生产储卸油装置(FPSO)串靠外输系统的风险源、风险演化过程、发生概率、维修周期和维修范围进行研究。首先基于统计得到的历史失效数据,对串靠外输系统进行风险辨识,并结合系统的设备组成确定引起不同风险的基本事件,建立串靠外输系统的故障树模型,理清风险的演化过程;然后采用4种概率模型分析不同基本事件的发生概率,计算外输事故发生概率的动态变化曲线,确定系统的维修周期;最后考虑设备故障概率的动态变化,计算不同年份下对系统可靠度起关键影响的部件,确定系统的维修范围。研究结果对外输系统的设计和外输作业具有一定的指导意义。     

南半球西风带操船环境危险度的安全评价

西风带航段是通往南极的必经之路,这一航段的气象条件极为恶劣。通过参加第１６次南极考察收集到西风带航段的气象资料,利用基于模糊推理方法对西风带航段的操船环境危险度进行了评价。通过对西风带航段操船环境危险度评价值的分析,得出了一些有益的结论,它对于为进一步研究选择过西风带的最佳航及在大风浪中把握操纵船舶航向的时机提供了理论依据。     

基于自适应模糊系统的船舶碰撞危险评判

本文应用模糊系统方法建立船舶碰撞危险的专家评判系统。该系统用数值化的模糊联想记忆（ＦＡＭ）规则表示专家的领域知识并进行模糊推理,同时采用神经网络的微分竞争学习算法（ＤＣＬ）实现规则的自适应生成,该系统能模仿人类专家迅速作出危险评判,并具有学习,更新和完善的能力。     

模拟器中船舶搁浅危险性评价方法的研究

在航海模拟器中,如何对模拟训练的过程实时、连续地进行航行安全评价一直是急待解决的重要课题。通过建立狭水道航行船舶搁浅危险性定量分析的数学方法,提出了基于大型船舶操纵模拟系统的狭水道航行船舶搁浅危险性评价模型。该模型能实时、连续地评价航行于狭水道等受限水域船的搁浅危险性,是一种对航海模拟训练评价的较客观、科学的方法。