Workshop report - Benchmarking the outcome of competitive tendering

Workshop 1 was concerned to identify the real results of competitive tendering, and experience on how to make it work better, using evidence from the rail and bus sectors in a large number of countries spread around the world. It was found that competitive tendering had generally been successful in terms of quality and costs, but problems had occurred in a number of cases, so careful attention must be paid to the design of tendering exercises, details of the contract, risk-sharing arrangements and the approach to any re-negotiation found to be necessary. As a result, an important conclusion is that the tendering authority needs a high degree of expertise in these issues; any thought that competitive tendering relieves the public authority of the need for expertise in public transport is mistaken.     

船舶会遇过程中避碰阶段的划分与量化

在分析船舶会遇的基础上,就碰撞危险的含义、船舶会遇避碰的各个阶段进行了定性和定量的分析,提出以TCPA为基础的船舶操纵避碰阶段划分的有关建议,为船舶碰撞责任划分和船舶操纵行为提供参考。     

An analysis of airport–airline vertical relationships with risk sharing contracts under asymmetric information structures

We analyze the double moral hazard problem at the joint venture type airport–airline vertical relationship, where two parties both contribute efforts to the joint venture but neither of them can see the other’s efforts. With the continuous-time stochastic dynamic programming model, we show that by the de-centralized utility maximizations of two parties under very strict conditions, i.e., optimal efforts’ cost being negligible and their risk averse parameters both asymptotically approaching to zero, the vertical contract could be agreed as the optimal sharing rule, which is the linear function of the final state with the slope being the product of their productivity difference and uncertainty (diffusion rate) level index.If both parties’ productivities are same, or the diffusion rate of the underlying process is unity, optimal linear sharing rule do not depend on the final state. If their conditions not dependent on final state are symmetric as well, then risk sharing disappears completely. In numerical examples, we illustrate the complex impact of uncertainty increase and end-of-period load factor improvement on the optimal sharing rule, and the relatively simple impact on total utility levels.     

Benchmarking airports with specific safety performance measures

The purpose of this paper is to develop safety performance measures and test the measures on data for air traffic management failure events. Failure events are classified by the severity of the consequence of occurrence, resulting in the rate of occurrence in severity categories. The safety measures are standard statistics calculated from this “distribution” for comparison of airport operations by stochastic ordering. For comparisons a benchmark is developed from the aggregation of failure data on a set of comparable airports. Airport performance is then compared with the benchmark using the defined safety measures. The benchmark comparison was implemented with failure data for major airports in Canada from 2005 to 2012. The results show a number of patterns and anomalies and some airports perform poorly in comparison to a class of similar operations. We conclude by suggesting benchmarking safety measures as a natural addition to the information system on aviation safety compiled by a national regulatory body to unravel anomalies such as implementation problems of a safety management system.     

Evaluation of total risk exposure and insurance premiums in the maritime industry

The empirical evaluation of maritime risk exposure is based on the monetary value at risk (MVR) that incorporates individual safety quality data of about 130,000 vessels, insurable values related to various potential damages, and proxies for fractions of values lost at incidents. MVR provides a tool to enhance strategic planning of maritime administrations and insurance providers, which is illustrated by a high level comparison of annual risk exposure with insurance premiums for 2010–2014. The analysis reveals a global annual insurable value of 30.6 trillion USD with associated annual MVR of 38.8 billion USD for very serious and serious incidents. Although oil tankers show the highest risk exposure (1.75 million USD per tanker per year), safety qualities are found to be best for this ship type (1.4% annual incident risk) and worst for container vessels (2.8%). Annual growth rates in total risk exposure are mostly positive with highest value for dry bulk carriers (27.8%), whereas risk exposure tends to decline for pollution of oil tankers (−2.0%) and passenger vessels (−11.3%), and for loss of life of oil tankers (−1.9%) and dry bulk carriers (−1.4%). Comparison across administrative dimensions reveals that most risk exposure lies with old open registries and with beneficial owners and the Document of Compliance companies located in high income countries. Comparison with global insurance premiums suggests reasonably adequate coverage of maritime risks (excluding cargo) with under-insurance of risk by around 5% (about 1 billion USD per year), with some uncertainties remaining for actual loss fractions of the involved damages.     

Exposing the role of exposure: Public transport network risk analysis

Network risk assessment takes into consideration the probability that adverse events occur and the impacts of such disruptions on network functionality. In the context of transport networks, most studies have focused on vulnerability, the reduction in performance indicators given that a disruption occurs. This study presents and applies a method to explicitly account for exposure in identifying and evaluating link criticality in public transport networks. The proposed method is compared with conventional measures that lack exposure information. A criticality assessment is performed by accounting for the probability of a certain event occurring and the corresponding welfare loss. The methodology was applied for a multi-modal public transport network in the Netherlands where data concerning disruptions was available. The results expose the role of exposure in determining link criticality and overall network vulnerability. The findings demonstrate that disregarding exposure risks prioritizing links with high passenger volumes over links with a higher failure probability that are significantly more critical to network performance. The inclusion of exposure allows performing a risk analysis and has consequences on assessing mitigation measures and investment priorities.     

城轨交通工程BT模式风险识别与应对措施

为加快大中城市轨道交通的发展,不少工程项目采取BT建设模式,但也存在一定的风险。此文在简述BT建设模式的同时,就城轨交通工程BT模式风险识别进行详细论述。根据识别出的社会风险、融资风险、技术风险、经济风险等,经分析提出可采取的应对和控制措施,保证城轨工程建设的顺利进行。     

Methods for probabilistic safety assessments of ships

 At the 62nd MSC conference (MSC62) in 1993, the UK proposed a new methodology for the consideration of safety regulations. This method is called formal safety assessment (FSA). FSA is an application of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). Risk is used as an index of safety. One of the most important parts of FSA is to evaluate the risk to a ship when it is equipped with the safety measures recommended by the proposed safety regulations. The National Maritime Research Institute (NMRI, formerly the Ship Research Institute) has been developing a method which allows the risk to be obtained holistically by utilizing a scientific method. To obtain the risk, the probability and consequences of every accident must be evaluated. This paper examines the following points: (a) a holistic methodology for risk evaluation; (b) a method used in the process of estimating the probability of collision; (c) a method to reduce the numbers of fire escalation scenarios; (d) a trial risk evaluation of cabin fire. Received: January 10, 2002 / Accepted: April 18, 2002     

Risk and reward in rail contracting

This workshop considered the role of risks and rewards in rail transport by considering evidence on the impacts of industry structure, franchising and infrastructure charges. A schema for the allocation of risks and rewards was developed, which indicated that strategic risks should be borne by authorities and operational risks by operators, but that tactical risks were more difficult to allocate and appropriate reward mechanisms more difficult to design. The extent to which these difficulties can be addressed by competitive tendering and alternatives such as trusting partnerships and negotiated performance based contracts was considered.     

不确定型层次分析法在航道通航环境风险评估中的应用

针对航道通航环境评估指标的复杂性、模糊性和不确定性,引入不确定层次分析法AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process),以区间数代替确定值对两因素之间的相对重要性做出判断,建立区间数判断矩阵,利用概率分布法对各最底层元素关于目标层的总组合权重进行排序。实例分析结果表明该方法具有实用性,能够反映航道通航安全的实际状态。