Dedication to Peter Douglas (August 22, 1942–April 1, 2012)

Ecosystem management has been deemed a promising approach to environmental management in many settings. The ecosystem approach promises improved use of scientific information, better management coordination, and more meaningful public participation in environmental decision making. Yet, there is little evidence for how well ecosystem management efforts actually achieve their goals. This article presents an in‐depth analysis of one ecosystem management effort, the Albemarle‐Pamlico Estuarine Study (APES), which was part of the National Estuary Program. The APES failed to meet the objectives of ecosystem management in several visible ways. However, this case study reveals that the APES also had many positive results that were less visible to participants and observers. The performance of the APES is explained with reference to seven paradoxes inherent in the concept of ecosystem management. These findings have implications for appropriate expectations and evaluation of other ecosystem management efforts.     

Suitability of Decision-Theoretic Models to Public Policy Issues Concerning the Provision of Shoreline Stabilization and Hazard Management

This article examines the suitability and potential advances of decision-theoretic models from finance regarding investment decisions in shoreline stabilization projects. A set of scenarios represents the dynamics of the decision-state facing the planner and identifies factors that should be incorporated into the decision-making process. It is shown that decision models from finance can account for the risk and uncertainty inherent in shoreline stabilization projects, potentially suggest improvements and refinements to presently used cost-benefit analysis procedures, and offer new tools that can aid in decisions concerning provision of shoreline stabilization. The outcomes of these scenarios justify better planning and control of existing and future building, and that of poststorm policies. Lastly, these models allow us to explore the range of our understanding of coastal processes and interactions with shoreline stabilization projects and can identify new and useful data needed in coastal management and hazard management decisions.     

大数据视角下市政道路工程绩效评价体系探讨

通过对城市道路全寿命周期进行绩效评价,有利于提高建设单位综合管理水平,但目前暂没有一套成熟的市政道路工程的绩效评价体系.基于大数据技术,以其他相关领域工程绩效评价体系为参考,对现有工程绩效评价体系的不足之处进行了总结,对建立一个客观、准确、适用性广、可操作性强的市政道路全过程绩效评价体系提出了初步构想,并就确保体系有效性问题提出了需要关注的问题及解决思路.     

模糊综合评判在试卷质量评定中的应用

为了减少在试卷质量评定中的主观性和随意性，文章运用模糊数学理论，建立了在试卷质量评定中的模糊综合评判模型。应用于实践，简便易行、客观公正，取得了满意的效果。     

高速公路建设投资体制改革的基本评价

近十年来,随着我国高速公路投资体制改革的不断深化,大大加快了我国高速公路建设发展的进程。通过深入分析高速公路建设投资体制改革对高速公路投资建设规模、建设资金来源渠道、投资经济效益、建设债务等关键因素的影响,按照"科学发展观"的指导思想,从可持续发展的角度,对我国高速公路建设投资体制改革实施效果进行了系统分析与评价,为我国高速公路建设投资体制改革的进一步深化提出了建议。     

驾驶舱眩光仿真分析与实车评价

良好的汽车驾驶舱视觉舒适性能够保障驾乘人员的行车安全，提高道路交通的稳定性，因此汽车驾驶舱的人机工程布置和内饰设计需要考虑减少驾驶舱眩光的产生。针对该问题，提出了一种基于CATIA/SPEOS的汽车驾驶室眩光评估方法。利用光线追踪法分析产生光反射部件之间的几何位置关系，在考虑材质属性、外界环境、真实光学效果和阳光照射方向的前提下，利用视觉仿真精确映射汽车驾驶舱的眩光位置。以某型SUV驾驶舱为例，通过光线跟踪分析发现，组合仪表不会有光线的直接照射产生眩光，中控大屏幕会有通过天窗和右边侧窗玻璃的光线直接照射产生眩光；通过视觉仿真分析发现，组合仪表由于光线折反射导致轻微眩光，中控大屏幕眩光面积较大；前挡风玻璃区域在中午和下午眩光较为严重，左边外后视镜区域在下午有空调镀铬装饰和风口造型的成像；中控大屏幕贴合AR防眩光膜优化后，分析结果表明，整块屏幕视觉效果趋于一致，视觉功效有显著提高。通过制定驾驶舱炫目主观评价流程并进行主观评价分析，得出驾驶舱眩光主观评价分析结果与仿真方法评估结果一致，表明该评估方法在新车研发和车型改款试制前期对驾驶室眩光分析和优化具有可行性。     

公路纵面视距行车安全性分析

驾驶员应有足够的视距来判断运行车辆前方环境发生的变化,如交通状况、道路线形组合形式及沿线景观设计等,以便采取相应措施确保汽车安全行驶。文章从道路纵面竖曲线设计原理出发,讨论了汽车安全行驶的条件,推导出停车视距与竖曲线设计长度、变坡角的关系,同时结合某高速公路安全性评价,对事故多发路段提出了合理化建议。     

模糊评价方法在船舶动力装置安全评估中的应用

为提高船舶动力装置安全综合评价水平,依据多级模糊安全综合评价基本原理,提出了基于多级模糊安全综合评价理论的船舶动力装置的综合安全评价模型及实现方法,并以实例论证了此方法的可行性.     

基于模糊综合评价的在线拍购供应商选择研究

研究了拍购中的供应商选择问题,提出企业应采用多属性定标的方法来选择供应商,建立一套专门针对在线拍购环境下的供应商评价指标体系,并采用模糊综合评判的思想和方法建立供应商评价的模糊综合评判模型,最后给出算例予以验证。