基于时延数据融合的港口船舶监控策略研究

在对现有港口船舶航行监控方法以及导航技术详细分析的基础上,结合基于Kalman滤波的数据融合技术,讨论了利用雷达、GPS以及AIS数据进行港口船舶导航算法和监控策略的设计问题。针对现有的时延平滑估计存在的缺点,提出一种基于时延的集中式预测估计融合算法。新算法具有很高的实时性和可实施性,同时,将新算法与现有的时延平滑估计融合算法相集成,提出一种完整的船舶导航和监控策略,计算机仿真算例验证了新算法的优越性,同时显示了新监控策略的有效性。     

Bayesian statistical data assimilation for ecosystem models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

This study considers advanced statistical approaches for sequential data assimilation. These are explored in the context of nowcasting and forecasting using nonlinear differential equation based marine ecosystem models assimilating sparse and noisy non-Gaussian multivariate observations. The statistical framework uses a state space model with the goal of estimating the time evolving probability distribution of the ecosystem state. Assimilation of observations relies on stochastic dynamic prediction and Bayesian principles. In this study, a new sequential data assimilation approach is introduced based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The ecosystem state is represented by an ensemble, or sample, from which distributional properties, or summary statistical measures, can be derived. The Metropolis-Hastings based MCMC approach is compared and contrasted with two other sequential data assimilation approaches: sequential importance resampling, and the (approximate) ensemble Kalman filter (including computational comparisons). A simple illustrative application is provided based on a 0-D nonlinear plankton ecosystem model with multivariate non-Gaussian observations of the ecosystem state from a coastal ocean observatory. The MCMC approach is shown to be straightforward to implement and to effectively characterize the non-Gaussian ecosystem state in both nowcast and forecast experiments. Results are reported which illustrate how non-Gaussian information originates, and how it can be used to characterize ecosystem properties.     

区域间港口国监督的发展现状及实施比较

为消除低标准船、加强海上安全、保护海洋环境及改善船员生活与工作条件,区域性港口国监督制度已经成为一项成效显著的利器并得到全球共识。从1982年3月巴黎备忘录成立以来,经过二十多年的发展,全球已建立九个区域性的港口国监督。本文重在介绍九大港口国监督区域的发展现状,并比较其实施的效果,拟供完善我国港口国监督制度的参考。     

基于状态空间法的受电弓主动控制的研究

建立线性化的受电弓模型和接触网的有限元模型、以及它们的耦合系统动力学模型,分析接触网的刚度变化,利用最优控制理论对主动控制式受电弓进行了理论上的研究。根据高速铁路对受电弓和接触网动力学性能的要求,从降低接触压力的波动以改善受流质量着手,针对弓网关系的特点,建立了受电弓主动控制系统模型,采用全状态反馈设计并利用线性二次型最优控制策略设计了受电弓主动控制的控制器,并求得了控制器参数。对控制系统进行仿真验证和研究。结果表明,采用主动控制式受电弓,能够降低接触压力的波动,提高弓网系统的动态性能,改善受流质量。     

纯电动汽车动力锂电池SOC估计策略综述

电池管理系统(BMS)采用了防止电池过放电和过充,提供电池均衡控制,能够实现新能源汽车动力锂电池的最佳利用和保护。电池管理系统实时精准估算电池电荷状态(SOC)是提高电动汽车续航里程和延长寿命的关键。然而,SOC不能直接测量,动力电池的充、放电又是一个复杂过程,导致目前现有的SOC估算策略很难精确地估算出实时在线SOC值。因此,如何提高SOC估算精度是当下BMS领域的研究热点。本文通过对各种SOC估算方法进行文献综述,分析和总结各个SOC估算方法的原理及优缺点,提出SOC估计策略未来发展趋势。     

大跨桥梁结构健康监测和状态评估研究综述

简要介绍大跨桥梁健康监测系统的发展，并结合润扬长江大桥健康监测系统，介绍了桥梁健康监测系统的组成、监测内容、功能及特点。对几种桥梁结构常用的健康状态评估方法进行了分析比较，最后探讨了健康监测领域今后的主要研究问题和发展方向。     

清代中国嘉庆年间之东亚的朝贡国与互市国

作为传统的中华帝国,清政府一直保持着与东亚诸国的朝贡关系.但是嘉庆年间确立了新的朝贡体制,将之前的朝贡国家与之后开始贸易交往的国家区分开.东亚的朝鲜和琉球一直都是中国的朝贡国.由于日本施行闭关锁国政策,所以不是中国的朝贡国,但清朝嘉庆年间,日本被中国视作朝贡国中的贸易互市国加以对待.     

Short-Term Highway Traffic State Prediction Using Structural State Space Models

This research proposes a short-term highway traffic state prediction method based on a structural state space model, with the intention to provide a robust approach for obtaining accurate forecasts of traffic state under both recurring and non-recurring conditions. True traffic state is decomposed to three components, namely, regular traffic pattern, structural deviation, and random fluctuation. Particularly, the structural deviation term reflects the change of true traffic state from regular (historical) pattern, due to unexpected capacity reduction and/or demand variations. A polynomial trend is adopted to describe the temporal evolution of structural deviations across different time intervals. We derive an analytical form of structural deviations in a single bottleneck case based on cumulative flow count diagrams. The proposed model is incorporated in a Kalman filtering-based algorithmic framework, together with an adaptive scheme for determining the variances of random errors. A set of numerical experiments was conducted on two test beds in the northern Taiwan highway network. Experimental results show that the proposed approach is particularly superior to an ordinary Kalman filtering method presented in the literature under non-recurring conditions, highlighting the advantage of combining both the polynomial trend model and historical pattern into the proposed short-term traffic state prediction approach.     

基于变权综合原理的斜拉桥索力、线形状态评估

基于变权综合原理,建立斜拉桥索力、线形状态评估模型。以约束优化索力值为基准值,引入索力上下限;以成桥线形作为基准值,以控制点的竖向允许位移高次插值形成线形评估的上下限。编制状态评估算法,利用变权综合原理和斜率关联度,以适度指标模型进行线性插值,并根据一组实测数据,对索力、线形状态进行评估。计算结果表明,随着均衡系数的减小,桥梁构件评估结果是一个加速退化的过程;变权模式作用下的变权权重越发散,评估结果的退化过程越剧烈,均衡系数-评分曲线的曲率越大。对于每个测点评分状态完全一致的桥梁构件,其均衡系数-评分曲线的曲率恒等于0,即评估结果将与均衡系数的取值无关,数值模拟结果与预测基本吻合。     

模式识别技术在桥梁状态评估与安全监测中的应用

将模式识别技术应用于桥梁结构状态评估与安全监测中,提出修正的欧氏距离与相似系数两种对响应信号特征向量进行统计分析的量化参数。提取出能较好反映出桥梁结构状态的特征参数,组合成特征向量。选择正常使用状态下多次实测数据特征向量的平均值作为基准状态,分别计算其他各次实测数据的特征向量,得到各次实测情况下特征向量与基准状态下特征向量之间修正的欧氏距离与相似系数。对桥梁正常运营状态进行监测,可得到修正的欧氏距离与相似系数的统计容许范围,作为桥梁结构状态评估的经验数字依据。