Short-Term Highway Traffic State Prediction Using Structural State Space Models

This research proposes a short-term highway traffic state prediction method based on a structural state space model, with the intention to provide a robust approach for obtaining accurate forecasts of traffic state under both recurring and non-recurring conditions. True traffic state is decomposed to three components, namely, regular traffic pattern, structural deviation, and random fluctuation. Particularly, the structural deviation term reflects the change of true traffic state from regular (historical) pattern, due to unexpected capacity reduction and/or demand variations. A polynomial trend is adopted to describe the temporal evolution of structural deviations across different time intervals. We derive an analytical form of structural deviations in a single bottleneck case based on cumulative flow count diagrams. The proposed model is incorporated in a Kalman filtering-based algorithmic framework, together with an adaptive scheme for determining the variances of random errors. A set of numerical experiments was conducted on two test beds in the northern Taiwan highway network. Experimental results show that the proposed approach is particularly superior to an ordinary Kalman filtering method presented in the literature under non-recurring conditions, highlighting the advantage of combining both the polynomial trend model and historical pattern into the proposed short-term traffic state prediction approach.     

道岔状态不良风险的故障树分析及控制研究

针对道岔状态不良,通过建立涵盖道岔全生命周期的故障树模型,计算最小割集、顶事件概率和基本事件的临界重要度,对道岔状态不良进行定量风险分析.围绕风险控制的消除、预防、减轻后果、事故应急4个方面,研究提出8项针对性的风险控制措施,并建立控制措施有效性评价矩阵,来评价措施有效性.结果表明,道岔状态不良属于风险程度较高的危害事...     

基于英国标准体系的桩基承载力计算方法

本文综合论述了不同国际标准体系下,高桩码头桩基承载力计算方法的选择.详细阐述了英国标准体系下,高桩码头桩基承载力的几种不同计算方法和适用条件.以印尼某项目为例,对几种方法的计算结果进行比较分析,并与桩基动力测试结果进行比较,提出较为适宜的计算方法,为类似工程提供参考.     

经济宪法学研究的尝试:分税制决定权的宪法解释

本文运用法律优先和法律保留原则,通过对宪法有关条款的解释分析,认为在现行宪政框架下,国务院不具有作出"分税制决定"的职权,分税制决定权属于全国人民代表大会,全国人民代表大会对国务院的"分税制决定"予以事后确认并不合适;在全国人民代表大会及其常务委员会作出分税制决议的情况下,地方政府对于分税制问题具有法律上的作用空间;国务院作出"分税制决定"和全国人民代表大会予以追认,说明了我国当时的依法治国现实状况,以及在作出改革决策前进行合宪性和合法性论证的必要性。本文所运用的研究方法对分析其它同类样本,并逐步形成经济宪法学,具有一定的理论意义。     

港口国监督在执行《压载水公约》中存在的风险、不确定性以及相关建议

随着《压载水公约》的生效,如何更好地实施公约要求成了港口国关注的重点。港口国监督(PSC)在促进港口国实施公约中发挥着重要作用^[1]。然而,随着PSC的深入,一些潜在的问题也值得关注。总结了目前PSC执行《压载水公约》过程中存在的风险与不确定性,并提出了相应的解决建议。