The value of options for time charterparty extension: an artificial neural networks (ANN) approach

The most frequently associated options in the physical shipping market are options to extend the charter period on time charters and additional shipment options on contracts of affreightment. The value of freight options, in practice, is estimated mostly by referring to forward curves. An option on freight has different properties from its financial counterparts, and the straightforward adoption of theoretical models does not produce promising results. In this paper, extension options, which have the property of options on futures, were transformed into regular European options before the application of the Black-Scholes model (BSM). The efficient market hypothesis, which justifies the parity of the performance of a long-term charter to that of repetitive short-term charters, worked as the basis for the transformation. The option values determined by the BSM were compared with actual realized values. Additionally, the artificial neural networks (ANN) was employed to derive the option values. This study is meaningful as the first-time application of both the closed-form solution and the ANN to the valuation of physical freight options. The research results can contribute to the quality of chartering decisions. The results could also be used in quantifying credit risk, as extension options tend to be granted to charterers with more creditability.     

船舶液压起重机延迟反馈吊重消摆控制

由于操纵和工作环境的变化,起重机的吊重在工作过程中会产生摆动,这种摆动降低了起重机的工作效率和安全性能。文章以集美大学轮机工程实验中心船舶液压起重机为研究对象,采用机电液仿真建模技术及拉格朗日方程,在MATLAB Simulink仿真软件平台上,建立起重机操作液压系统及吊重摆动模型,采用与试验数据对比的方法对所建立的模型进行验证。设计基于吊重摆动位置延迟反馈的控制器,通过将延迟反馈信号叠加到操作信号上的方法实现吊重的消摆控制。结果表明,在各种操作情况下,延迟反馈控制器均能很好地抑制吊重的摆动。     

Probabilistic multi-aircraft conflict detection approach for trajectory-based operation

Conflict detection (CD) is one of the key functions used to ensure air transport safety and efficiency. In trajectory-based operation (TBO), aircraft are provided with more flexibility in en route trajectory planning and more responsibility for self-separation. The high flexibility in trajectory planning enables random changes in pilot intent, thus increasing the uncertainty in trajectory prediction and CD. This study proposes a novel probabilistic CD approach for TBO in which the uncertainty of pilot intent is taken into account by quantifying the aircraft reachable domain constrained by the flight plan. First, a probabilistic model for aircraft trajectory prediction is developed using the truncated Brownian bridge method. Based on this model, a novel conflict probability estimation method is developed. Finally, the performance of the proposed probabilistic CD approach is demonstrated through an illustrative air traffic scenario.     

Mathematically calculating the transit time of cargo through a liner shipping network with various trans-shipment policies

This paper derives the mathematical expressions for the transit time of cargo through a liner shipping network. Main efforts are devoted to deriving the calculation expressions of the connection time of cargo during trans-shipment. For the forward and many-to-one trans-shipment policies, we conduct a minor correction towards the expressions in existing studies to improve the completeness. Meanwhile, we propose an alternative but more straightforward calculation method for connection time which bypasses the complicated inductive argument in existing studies. Then we introduce two new trans-shipment policies: backward trans-shipment and one-to-many trans-shipment, and mathematically calculate the corresponding connection times. Numerical experiments also deliver some managerial insights into the effectiveness of backward trans-shipment in transit time control.     

Evaluation of pedestrian crosswalk level of service (LOS) in perspective of type of land-use

In India pedestrians usually cross the road at mid-block crosswalks due to ease of access to their destination or the development of adjacent land use types such as shopping, business areas, school and residential areas. The behaviour of pedestrian will change with respect to different land use type and this change in behaviour of pedestrian further reflects change in perceived level of service (LOS). So, it is important to evaluate the quality of service of such crossing facilities with respect to different land-use type under mixed traffic conditions. In this framework, pedestrian perceived LOS were collected with respect to different land-use type such as shopping, residential and business areas. The ordered probit (OP) model was developed by using NLOGIT software package, with number of vehicles encountered, road crossing difficulty as well as safety considered as primary factors along with pedestrian individual factors (gender and age), land-use type and roadway geometry. From the model results, it has been concluded that perceived safety, crossing difficulty, land-use condition, number of vehicles encountered, median width and number of lanes have significant effect on pedestrian perceived LOS at unprotected (un-signalized) mid-block crosswalks in mixed traffic scenario. The inferences of these results highlights the importance of land use planning in designing a new set of pedestrian access facilities for unprotected mid-block crosswalks under mixed traffic conditions. Also the study results would be useful for evaluating pedestrian accessibility taking into account different land-use type and planning required degree of segregation with vehicular movement at unprotected mid-block crosswalk locations.     

Understanding the impacts of a combination of service improvement strategies on bus running time and passenger’s perception

Transit agencies implement many strategies in order to provide an attractive transportation service. This article aims to evaluate the impacts of implementing a combination of strategies, designed to improve the bus transit service, on running time and passenger satisfaction. These strategies include using smart card fare collection, introducing limited-stop bus service, implementing reserved bus lanes, using articulated buses, and implementing transit signal priority (TSP). This study uses stop-level data collected from the Société de transport de Montréal (STM)’s automatic vehicle location (AVL) and automatic passenger count (APC) systems, in Montréal, Canada. The combination of these strategies has lead to a 10.5% decline in running time along the limited stop service compared to the regular service. The regular route running time has increased by 1% on average compared to the initial time period. The study also shows that riders are generally satisfied with the service improvements. They tend to overestimate the savings associated with the implementation of this combination of strategies by 3.5-6.0 min and by 2.5-4.1 min for both the regular route and the limited stop service, respectively. This study helps transit planners and policy makers to better understand the effects of implementing a combination of strategies to improve running time and passenger’s perception of these changes in service.     

An operational activity-based method to estimate CO2 emissions from container shipping considering empty container repositioning

This paper develops an operational activity-based method to estimate CO₂ emissions from container shipping in contrasts to the traditional aggregated activity-based method. Two case studies investigate the impacts of empty container repositioning policies and port handling capacity on CO₂ emission index. The results show that the aggregated method could well overestimate CO₂ emissions and the operational activity-based method is more appropriate. The paper also demonstrates that high port-handling capacity and efficient empty container repositioning could reduce CO₂ emissions in seaborne container transportation.     

基于桥梁挠度长期监测值的动态预测

文章针对重庆高家花园嘉陵江大桥实时健康监测系统的挠度长期监测数据,根据监测信息的时间序列呈季节、循环等非平稳状态特点,介绍采用ARMA时间序列预测模型,对挠度监测数据中所包含的外荷载的变化趋势及结构抗力的衰变信息进行动态预测,同时建立了结构外效应的预测函数。结果表明,采用低阶模型能对挠度监测值进行较好的动态预测。     

浅议绿色图书馆的建设

绿色图书馆的提出、发展及其推广,是社会经济发展到一定阶段的产物。文章从"绿色环境、绿色服务、绿色馆藏、绿色管理"四个方面探讨了如何将图书馆创建成一个绿色的图书馆。     

港口在推动建立现代国际物流中心中的战略意义

分析了不同阶段物流及港口发展的关系表征,进而分析了港口推动现代物流方面的优势。随后,从四个方面阐述了建立物流中心的战略意义。