基于灰色加权关联度的区域运输通道规划方案优选研究

随着大城市、特大城市不断发展,各大城市倾向于大力构建对外运输通道,连接周边发达区域或资源丰富的区域,因而,区域运输通道的合理规划的重要性不容忽视。本文结合区域运输通道的交通特点,提出"灰色加权关联度"的评价优选模型,建立通道规划方案的评价指标体系,采用"熵值法"确定各个指标的权重,对各个规划方案的预选模型进行综合评价,并结合案例对A城市的3个运输通道的预选方案进行分析,选出最佳方案。     

交通应急管理系统发展综述

交通应急管理系统是交通安全、可靠运营的保障,是交通发展战略规划中的重要研究内容。本文阐述了交通应急管理系统的组成子系统和工作流程,并在回顾国内外应急管理系统现有相关研究文献的基础上,总结了国内外交通应急管理现状的研究现状,分析了我国交通应急管理研究和应用存在的问题,探讨了交通应急管理方面国内外的发展趋势和研究热点。     

Residential density and transportation emissions: Examining the connection by addressing spatial autocorrelation and self-selection

This paper examines the effect of residential density on CO₂ equivalent from automobile using more specific emission factors based on vehicle and trip characteristics, and by addressing problems of spatial autocorrelation and self-selection. Drawing on the 2006 Puget Sound Regional Council Household Activity Survey data, the 2005 parcel and building database, the 2000 US Census data, and emission factors estimated using the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator, we analyze the influence of residential density on road-based transportation emissions. In addition, a Bayesian multilevel model with spatial random effects and instrumental variables is employed to control for spatial autocorrelation and self-selection. The results indicate that the effect of residential density on transportation emissions is influenced by spatial correlation and self-selection. Our results still show, however, that increasing residential density leads to a significant reduction in transportation emissions.     

A structural equation model of activity participation and travel behavior using longitudinal data

Abstract

This paper presents a dynamic structural equation model (SEM) that explicitly addresses complicated causal relationships among socio-demographics, activity participation, and travel behavior. The model assumes that activity participation and travel patterns in the current year are affected by those in previous years. Using the longitudinal dataset collected from Puget sound transportation panel ‘wave 3’ and ‘wave 4,’ these assumptions are tested with suggested SEMs. Within each wave, the model is structured to have a three-level causal relationship that describes interactions among endogenous variables under time-budget constraints. The resulting coefficients representing the activity durations indicate that people tend to allocate their time according to the importance and the obligation of the activity level. Results from the dynamic SEM confirm the fact that people's current activity and travel behavior do have effects on those in the future. The resulting model also shows that activity participation and travel behavior in ‘wave 3’ are closely related to those in ‘wave 4.’ These explicit explanations of relationships among variables could provide important perspectives in the activity-based approach which becomes recognized as a better analytical tool for the transportation planning and policy making process.     

建设学习型党组织，推动高校党建创新研究

目前高等学校的各级党组织面临着诸多考验,必须按照党中央的要求,从高校的实际出发,结合创先争优活动,开展党建工作创新,建设学习型党组织,焕发基层党组织的凝聚力和战斗力,巩固党对高校的领导,促进高校的科学发展。     

城市客运交通枢纽预警分级阈值简析

交通枢纽作为服务于公共交通之间以及公共交通与其它交通方式之间客流转换的场所,是改善整个交通系统,提高居民出行效率、解决出行换乘等问题的重要影响因素。本文结合东直门综合运输枢纽信息服务平台工程,采集枢纽客流进出量,总结客流统计规律,对东直门交通枢纽预警分级阈值进行简析,相关研究成果可为交通枢纽预警分级阈值分析提供参考。     

交通运输信息融合功能模型

综述一般信息融合功能模型和交通运输信息融合应用的进展,指出这两个方面的联系和差异.针对交通运输应用的信息本质和功能特性,提出交通运输信息融合的一般定义,并建立了交通运输信息融合功能模型.模型对信源引入机器信息与认知信息的划分,提出了分属机器信息和认知信息两个层次的采集校验融合、状态特征融合、预测评估融合、规划设计融合和综合决策融合五级信息融合功能,提供了五级融合功能的三种应用模式,实现了不同交通运输应用功能与信息操作功能的衔接,与一般多传感器数据融合功能模型具有统一性.论文还以交通拥挤管理问题为例,给出了相应的信息融合功能模型.     

桥面系施工管理监理要点

结合常规桥面系结构施工经常出现的质量等问题,对其管理、工艺控制、监理要点进行归纳分析。     

基于数据分类的高速铁路运营事故预测方法

高速铁路运营事故预测方法是度量铁路安全管理水平的重要指标.为提高高速铁路的安全运营水平,引入工业数据分类方法,分析反向传播(BP)神经网络和灰色模型在高速铁路安全运营事故预测过程中的适应性.首先,运用事故次数、事故联动系数、月均事故率3个参数对高速铁路安全运营水平进行度量;然后,根据工业数据分类方法判别高速铁路运营事故数据属于块状型,据此建立反向传播(BP)神经网络运营事故预测模型;针对运营事故数据具有波动大的特点,利用均值聚类方法建立K-GM(1,3)预测模型.以近年来高速铁路运营事故数据为样本对模型进行训练和分析,结果表明:BP神经网络、K-GM(1,3)、GM(1,3)预测模型的预测误差分别为8.92%,13.68%,345.25%,BP神经网络在高速铁路安全运营事故预测过程中的适应性要优于灰度模型.      

Case Study of Transportation Planning Based on Land Development Patterns in the Great Chengdu Area

Traffic is a function of land use.Based on the understanding of mutual influences between transportation investment and land development,transportation corridors of various levels in Great Chengdu Area(GCA)were investigated.Trip generation was predicted based on population expansion,and trip attraction was estimated based on land use intensity coefficient.Lane assignment of transportation corridors with case studies is expected with two-way-six-lane routes connecting county-cities,two-way-four-lane routes connecting new towns in plane area,and two-way-two-lane connecting new towns in hilly area and prime villages.