公路工程项目组合施工进度风险防范策略

为了降低公路工程施工进度风险，考虑风险事件的交互关系提出了公路工程项目组合施工进度风险防范策略。首先，通过公路工程建设文献资料梳理和专家筛选补充，构建了公路工程项目组合施工进度风险三级指标体系。然后，利用网络层次分析法解析了公路工程项目组合施工进度风险指标间的交互关系，运用Super Decisions软件确定了各级风险指标的权重。最后，通过系统动力学建立了公路工程项目组合施工进度风险水平评估模型，在验证模型的有效性后运用Vensim软件对施工进度风险水平进行模拟。在此基础上，为降低公路工程施工进度风险，综合考虑风险破坏和交互程度改进传统“概率-损失”风险矩阵，对不同风险防范策略实施后的管控效果进行仿真模拟，进而提出了相应的风险防范策略集。研究结果表明：风险间交互关系致使公路工程项目组合施工进度风险在整个施工阶段呈上升趋势，且施工阶段中后期风险上升趋势明显升高，有必要对风险进行控制；采取单一风险防范策略后总体施工进度风险降低[0.13%，10.12%]，下降程度并不显著；采取组合风险防范策略后总体施工进度风险下降[10.45%，17.42%]，显著度明显提高。该结果厘清了公路工程项目组合施工进度风险的交互关系，验证了风险防范策略的科学有效性，为解决公路工程项目组合施工进度的风险防范问题提供了依据。     

批量生产多循环闭式冷锻铝材成形误差机械热偶合有限元分析

在冷成形加工中因为工件和模具中的温度随时间变化而使工件的成形误差也随之变化，以前的成形误差分析仅涉及单个工件加工循环。同时考虑机械效应和热力效应对成形误差的影响，对批量生产多循环闭式冷锻铝材成形过程中工件的成形误差进行了有限元分析，给出了一个包含成形各个阶段所产生的成形误差的误差分析公式。该公式可用于诸如挤压成形等其他成形工艺。这一分析工作为高精密成形误差补偿方法的研究提供了指导。     

Environmental impacts of transformative land use and transport developments in the Greater Beijing Region: Insights from a new dynamic spatial equilibrium model

This paper reports the insights into environmental impacts of the ongoing transformative land use and transport developments in Greater Beijing, from a new suite of dynamic land use, spatial equilibrium and strategic transport models that is calibrated for medium to long term land use and transport predictions. The model tests are focused on urban passenger travel demand and associated emissions within the municipality of Beijing, accounting for Beijing’s land use and transport interactions with Tianjin, Hebei and beyond. The findings suggests that background trends of urbanization, economic growth and income rises will continue to be very powerful drivers for urban passenger travel demand across all main modes of transport beyond 2030. In order to achieve the dual policy aims for a moderately affluent and equitable nation and reducing the absolute levels of urban transport emissions by 2030, road charging and careful micro-level coordination between land use, built form and public transport provision may need to be considered together for policy implementation in the near future.     

无纵向风下环境压强对拱顶最高温度影响数值研究

为了给高海拔隧道火灾防灾救援设计提供参考依据，通过火灾动态模拟软件(FDS)建立全尺寸模型隧道，设置5种不同环境压强，研究环境压强对隧道火灾拱顶最高温度的影响。结果表明： 1)相同火源热释放速率(HRR)下，拱顶最高温度随着压强降低而增大； 2)环境压强降低引起的空气密度与卷吸强度变化是造成拱顶最高温度变化的主要原因。基于理论分析和数值计算结果，提出考虑环境压强的拱顶最高温度预测模型。预测模型拱顶最高温度与考虑环境压强的无量纲热释放速率的2/3次幂成正比，试验数据验证了预测模型的可靠性。     

基于组合自动优化策略的水下机器人型线设计（英文）

In this paper, a hybrid automatic optimization strategy is proposed for the design of underwater robot lines. Isight is introduced as an integration platform. The construction of this platform is based on the user programming and several commercial software including UG6.0, GAMBIT2.4.6 and FLUENT12.0. An intelligent parameter optimization method, the particle swarm optimization, is incorporated into the platform. To verify the strategy proposed, a simulation is conducted on the underwater robot model 5470, which originates from the DTRC SUBOFF project. With the automatic optimization platform, the minimal resistance is taken as the optimization goal; the wet surface area as the constraint condition; the length of the fore-body, maximum body radius and after-body's minimum radius as the design variables. With the CFD calculation, the RANS equations and the standard turbulence model are used for direct numerical simulation. By analyses of the simulation results, it is concluded that the platform is of high efficiency and feasibility. Through the platform, a variety of schemes for the design of the lines are generated and the optimal solution is achieved. The combination of the intelligent optimization algorithm and the numerical simulation ensures a global optimal solution and improves the efficiency of the searching solutions.     

Walking-distance introduced queueing model for pedestrian queueing system: Theoretical analysis and experimental verification

We have introduced the effect of delay in walking from the head of a queue to the service windows in the queueing model and obtain a suitable type of queueing system under various conditions by both computational simulation and theoretical analysis. When there are multiple service windows, the queueing theory indicates that mean waiting time in a fork-type queueing system (Fork), which collects pedestrians into a single queue, is smaller than that in a parallel-type queueing system (Parallel), i.e., queues for each service window. However, in our walking-distance introduced queueing model, we have examined that mean waiting time in Parallel becomes smaller when both the arrival probability of pedestrians and the effect of walking distance are large. Moreover, enhanced Forks, which shorten waiting time by reducing the effect of walking distance, are considered, and parts of our results are also verified by real queueing experiments.     

New level of vehicle comfort and vehicle stability via utilisation of the suspensions anti-dive and anti-squat geometry

In this article a novel vehicle dynamics control concept is designed for a vehicle equipped with wheel individual electric traction machines, electronically controlled brakes and semi-active suspensions. The suspension's cross-couplings between traction forces and vertical forces via anti-dive and anti-squat geometry is utilised in the control concept to improve driving comfort and driving stability. The control concept is divided into one main and two cascaded branches. The main controller consists of a multivariable vehicle dynamics controller and a control allocation scheme to improve the vehicle's driving comfort. The cascaded feedback loops maintain the vehicle's stability according to wheel slip and vehicle sideslip. The performance of the combined vehicle dynamics controller is compared to a standard approach in simulation. It can be stated that the controller piloting semi-active suspensions together with brake and traction devices enables a superior performance regarding comfort and stability.     

A nonlinear model predictive control formulation for obstacle avoidance in high-speed autonomous ground vehicles in unstructured environments

This paper presents a nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) formulation for obstacle avoidance in high-speed, large-size autono-mous ground vehicles (AGVs) with high centre of gravity (CoG) that operate in unstructured environments, such as military vehicles. The term ‘unstructured’ in this context denotes that there are no lanes or traffic rules to follow. Existing MPC formulations for passenger vehicles in structured environments do not readily apply to this context. Thus, a new nonlinear MPC formulation is developed to navigate an AGV from its initial position to a target position at high-speed safely. First, a new cost function formulation is used that aims to find the shortest path to the target position, since no reference trajectory exists in unstructured environments. Second, a region partitioning approach is used in conjunction with a multi-phase optimal control formulation to accommodate the complicated forms the obstacle-free region can assume due to the presence of multiple obstacles in the prediction horizon in an unstructured environment. Third, the no-wheel-lift-off condition, which is the major dynamical safety concern for high-speed, high-CoG AGVs, is ensured by limiting the steering angle within a range obtained offline using a 14 degrees-of-freedom vehicle dynamics model. Thus, a safe, high-speed navigation is enabled in an unstructured environment. Simulations of an AGV approaching multiple obstacles are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm.     

Modelling and model predictive control for a bicycle-rider system

This study proposes a bicycle-rider control model based on model predictive control (MPC). First, a bicycle-rider model with leaning motion of the rider’s upper body is developed. The initial simulation data of the bicycle rider are then used to identify the linear model of the system in state-space form for MPC design. Control characteristics of the proposed controller are assessed by simulating the roll-angle tracking control. In this riding task, the MPC uses steering and leaning torques as the control inputs to control the bicycle along a reference roll angle. The simulation results in different cases have demonstrated the applicability and performance of the MPC for bicycle-rider modelling.     

Multi-axle/articulated bus dynamics modeling: a reconfigurable approach

This paper proposed a unified model including yaw and roll dynamics for any axle or articulation configuration of buses by using a reconfigurable approach. First, all the possible existing configurations of buses are introduced, including the axle/articulation configuration, powertrain configuration, and active chassis control configuration. Consequently, the research is motivated by a key question: how can we develop a unified model that is inclusive and configurable to all of the above bus configurations? To develop the model, three layers of the modeling process are presented step by step. The magic formula and vertical load transfer are discussed to formulate the tyre model. It is noted that the case of the articulated bus is presented in an independent section but how it is included and unified in a general form is also explained. Finally, a modeling validation of axle or articulation configuration cases is performed and the comparative results to high-fidelity models show the feasibility, efficiency, and convenience of the reconfigurable approach. As the crucial feature, the resulting model can be potentially applied to model-based controller design in any buses without reformulating the model. This will greatly benefit the vehicle dynamics control and also future autonomous buses. Although the focus of this paper is buses, the proposed approach actually covers any multi-axle/articulated vehicles, like trucks, tractor-trailers.