Prediction of travel time variability for cost-benefit analysis

Unreliable travel times cause substantial costs to travelers. Nevertheless, they are often not taken into account in cost-benefit analyses (CBA), or only in very rough ways. This paper aims at providing simple rules to predict variability, based on travel time data from Dutch highways. Two different concepts of travel time variability are used, which differ in their assumptions on information availability to drivers. The first measure is based on the assumption that, for a given road link and given time of day, the expected travel time is constant across all working days (rough information: RI). In the second case, expected travel times are assumed to reflect day-specific factors such as weather conditions or weekdays (fine information: FI). For both definitions of variability, we find that the mean travel time is a good predictor. On average, longer delays are associated with higher variability. However, the derivative of variability with respect to delays is decreasing in delays. It can be shown that this result relates to differences in the relative shares of observed traffic ‘regimes’ (free-flow, congested, hyper-congested) in the mean delay. For most CBAs, no information on the relative shares of the traffic regimes is available. A non-linear model based on mean travel times can then be used as an approximation.     

Effect of Explosion in a Gas Pipeline Compartment of a Utility Tunnel on Neighboring Metro Tunnels北大核心CSCD

In this paper the numerical simulation analysis of the effect of explosion in the gas pipeline compartment of a utility tunnel on neighboring metro tunnels was conducted using the software AUTODYN. The results show that the TNT equivalent in a fireproof partition with length of 200 m is 41.6 kg when the gas concentration in the gas pipeline compartment reaches 10%; the blast wave has much effect on the crown and arch waist of the round metro tunnel and it’s necessary to take some protective measures in both areas; when the surrounding soil is sand, the utili- ty tunnel is above the round metro tunnel and their alignments are in the same direction, the greater the vertical spacing between the utility tunnel and the metro tunnel, the smaller the effect of the blast wave on the metro tunnel; when the vertical spacing is 7.2 m, the maximum dynamic tensile stress is 1.86 MPa (including the static stress value of 1 MPa in the tunnel segment) and it is slightly smaller than the designed tensile strength of metro tunnel (about 1.89 MPa). The maximum vibration velocity and the maximum displacement meet the structural stability require- ments, so it is suggested the vertical spacing between the utility tunnel and metro tunnel shall not be less than 7.2 m. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

挖泥船输送系统计算分析软件研制

基于矩阵实验室平台,将挖泥船输送系统的计算仿真程序进行封装处理,建立挖泥船输送系统计算分析软件系统(DTAS)。该系统首次汇集了多种泥泵管路特性曲线的计算方法,包括泥泵及管路数据文件的存储查询、泥泵管路特性曲线的计算以及多种计算模型的选择、施工现场数据反分析、接力泵船的计算等十几个计算模块,可以更加系统化、全面化地进行输送计算分析。DTAS系统界面操作简单,为施工及技术人员提供了便捷的计算工具,大大提高了工作效率,可广泛推广应用。     

船用离心泵状态监测

实现机舱设备实时状态监测及评估是智能船舶以及无人机舱发展过程中的重要部分,也是事后维修、定期维修向视情维修转变过程的关键技术.本文利用最小二乘多项式拟合法对实验数据进行拟合,得到离心泵Q-H特性曲线拟合多项式.在某一进出口压差下,比较拟合流量和监测流量之间的差值来表征离心泵实时性能状态,并通过设置不同程度的泄露故障验证该方法的有效性.相比于用CFD软件建模仿真以及监测振动等方法,该方法可行性强、简单实用、成本较低,具有重要的实际工程应用价值.     

考虑残余应力效应的深潜器耐压壳体疲劳研究

本文考虑焊接残余应力的影响,给出包含裂纹萌生和裂纹扩展全过程的载人深潜器耐压球壳疲劳寿命预报方法,分别基于局部应力-应变法和能计及负应力比效应的裂纹扩展单一曲线模型预报了耐压球壳的工艺疲劳寿命和使用疲劳寿命,研究焊接残余应力大小对球壳疲劳寿命的影响。结果表明,忽略拉伸残余应力的影响将导致疲劳寿命预测结果偏于危险;耐压球壳整体受压时,拉伸残余应力使得球壳局部区域承受拉-压循环载荷,计算使用疲劳寿命过程中须考虑其影响;降低拉伸残余应力可有效提高耐压球壳的疲劳寿命。     

非饱和膨胀土的膨胀特性试验研究

针对不同起始含水量的非饱和膨胀土,对其膨胀量和膨胀速率进行了详细试验研究。结果表明由于不同初始含水量的膨胀土具有不同的基质吸力值,导致土样在吸湿过程中发生不同的膨胀变形量。根据膨胀变形试验结果,建立了膨胀土的膨胀量、膨胀速率以及膨胀变形所需时间与起始含水量的相关公式。     

双曲线上曲率最大点预测桩基竖向极限承载力的预测

从解析几何的角度分析了传统双曲线方法,该方法是用平行于沉降轴的渐近线来判定极限承载力;提出了采用双曲线上曲率最大点来判定极限承载力。在实际工程应用中,与传统方法进行了对比分析。结果表明:采用曲率最大点判定极限承载力得到的Qu是传统的以渐近线判定得到的Qult作折减所得,曲线越平坦折减越多;在极限承载力随拟合采用荷载级数的规律方面,最大曲率点法与传统方法一致,得到的极限承载力均随着采用级数的增多逐步增大并逐渐趋于稳定。     

海洋平台KK型管节点的疲劳性能试验研究

以某自升式海洋平台为研究对象,进行了空间KK型管节点在轴力作用下的疲劳性能的试验研究.通过对管节点模型的试验测试,得到了KK节点在轴力作用下沿着焊缝周围的热应力区内的热点应力分布及节点的应力集中系数,并采用S-N曲线法对KK型管节点的疲劳寿命进行估算.通过对比分析,指出了试验方法与规范计算方法在管节点疲劳性能分析上的差异性.     

一种螺旋桨参数化建模方法

对螺旋桨进行优化时,需要建立起优化计算的样本空间,即要实现初始桨的参数化建模。本文基于贝塞尔曲线拟合原理编程实现了螺旋桨的参数化建模,对螺旋桨的径向参数分布分别用一条贝塞尔曲线进行拟合,曲线的控制点通过遗传算法寻优求得。文中以4382桨为例,对其进行参数化建模,讨论了三、四、五、六阶贝塞尔曲线的拟合效果,发现三阶贝塞尔曲线拟合光顺性最好、拟合平均误差可以控制在0.3%以内,而且控制点个数较少,最适合拟合螺旋桨径向参数分布。最后通过调整三次贝塞尔曲线控制点的位置调整了原桨叶的几何形状,得到光顺性较好的新桨叶模型,表明该参数化建模方法合理。     

中低速磁浮交通圆曲线参数影响因素分析

在分析中低速磁浮交通车线关系基础上,研究车辆通过圆曲线时悬浮力变化情况,分析转向架结构和圆曲线的几何匹配关系,计算车辆部件偏移量、悬浮力变化量、弹簧变形量等,给出最小圆曲线半径的合理取值,说明满足车辆与线路之间的匹配关系是线路设计的基本要求。实践表明,研究结论为中低速磁浮交通线路设计参数选取提供理论依据。