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基于性能的导航（Performance Based Navigation,PBN）飞行程序设计方案的优选对提高终端区空域的容量,空中交通管理工作的质量、效率,甚至飞机的飞行安全至关重要.但在实际操作中,PBN飞行程序设计方案的评估通常由有关专家根据机场的特点,依据专业知识及经验来确定优选方案,存在主观性和随意性的缺陷.为了提高PBN飞行程序设计方案优选的合理性和有效性,本文构建了PBN飞行程序设计方案的评价指标体系,建立了基于相对优势度法的区间数多属性评价模型.在该模型中,属性权重及评价指标值均采用区间数形式赋值,这些区间数用于计算备选方案的相对优势度,通过选择最大相对优势度来确定最佳方案.实例证明,所提出的评价模型能充分利用决策信息,有效地解决PBN飞行程序设计方案的优选问题.     

徐沛铁路货运制票与票据管理系统的开发与应用

货票是铁路运营的主要票据之一,是运输统计、财务管理、货流货物分析的原始信息,也是运输调度指挥作业不可缺少的基础依据.针对徐沛铁路管理处运输的特点和需要,采用统一的数据库管理方式开发了管内货运制票系统,该系统可以提高货票、杂费等票据信息的管理水平,改进贷票信息监督和维护方式,满足货运制票和货运收入统计的需要.     

基于多属性决策的目标群威胁判断方法

在现代作战指挥决策系统当中,如何迅速反映战场态势变化,做出威胁判断,对实现指挥系统的自动化具有重要意义。根据多属性决策与威胁判断的特点,论文提出了基于多属性决策的目标群威胁判断方法,将目标群的属性及相互关系进行量化并对进行威胁判断与等级排序,其属性值由隶属函数进行刻哂。最后通过实例验证目标群威胁判断方法的有效性。     

Towards improved port capacity investment decisions under uncertainty: a real options approach

ABSTRACT

Port activity plays an important role in facilitating international trade. Sufficient capacity is indispensable for a port to attract flows to a region and retain them. The capacity decision is the result of a trade-off between investment and waiting costs. Traditional methods to value expansion projects do not deal adequately with managerial flexibility in the face of uncertainty from different sources in the complex port environment. In this paper, real options (RO) models are identified as an alternative method to making project valuations and investment decisions, as they attribute the correct value to managerial flexibility under uncertainty. In order to be able to build and use such RO models for port capacity investment decisions, the sources and implications of uncertainty in the port and the different RO model specifications need to be understood. To this end, both the literature about uncertainty in the port context and the literature about real options models are reviewed in order to provide researchers who want to build their own decision-making models, with the necessary knowledge of both fields. The review makes clear that the complex interactions in and competition between the logistics chains and their actors coming together in ports have significant impacts on port capacity. Uncertainty is also caused by uncertain international trade flows and changes in legislation following new technologies and environmental impacts. An analysis of the components of some general RO models shows how the options of flexible output, investment size and timing are valued by RO models in a setting with demand uncertainty. Moreover, the review presents researchers with insights in how to deal with cooperative and competitive interactions in the chain, time to build, cyclical markets and legislation changes. It also shows how to value the expansion and the phased investment options. The new insights resulting from this review are subsequently combined in a framework that serves as a guideline to build RO models for port capacity investments. Finally, an exemplifying application of the framework is used to build an actual port capacity investment decision model.     

导弹装备基于状态的维修理论研究

随着导弹装备的复杂化,传统的维修方式日益暴露弊端.基于状态的维修（CBM）在实践应用中日益显示其优越性和巨大的经济效益.论文分析了CBM的特点,阐述了CBM的实施条件,进一步分析了基于CBM的导弹装备维修流程.     

在资金预算不确定条件下路面维护和修复项目管理决策优化方法

一个得到良好开发和维护的路面管理系统（PMS）能够帮助管理者做出在什么时候,对哪些路段采用什么样的路面维护和修复方案的决定,从而实现可用资源的最大化.本文提出一种在资金预算不确定条件下路面维护和修复项目管理决策优化方法 (MPMRPBU),为确保管理者在一个决策规划时段内,从公路网中选择并优化一组路面维护和修复方案,建立随机线性规划模型求解MPMRPBU问题.通过案例分析,比较在确定性优化和随机规划两种不同条件下的优化方案,研究不同经济预算对优化方案的影响.结果表明,采用随机规划方法能产生高质量的MPMRPBU解决方案, 该算法可以解决实际问题.     

卫星城市区域出租车方案研究

卫星城市发展规模逐步扩大,与中心城市的距离也逐步增加,中心城市出租车数量的简单增加难以解决卫星城市的出租车交通出行需求.以兰州市西固区为例,针对区域出租车的运营范围、经营权使用期限、投放量、运营模式及定价方案五个方面进行了分析研究,并提出适合卫星城市的区域出租车方案.     

不同回收价格的闭环供应链收益分配问题研究

在构建的包含一个制造商和两个零售商的闭环供应链中,对两个零售商的回收价格加以区分,采用博弈论方法,分别基于零售商分散决策和集中决策的情境,分析供应链整体与节点企业的最优收益分配,并通过算例验证了研究结果.研究表明：两个零售商回收价格不同时,制造商的收益在零售商分散决策时优于零售商集中决策时,零售商的收益则受益于零售商的合作,并且闭环供应链的整体收益在市场容量较大时选择零售商分散决策较优,而在市场容量较小时选择零售商集中决策较优.     

A BENCHMARK EXERCISE ON FUZZY SET THEORY BASED EXPERT JUDGEMENT TECHNIQUE

Introduction　　In the areas of every level of probabilistic riskassessment and management in nuclear powerplants,the application of subjective expert' s judg-ments is broadly in demand.The behind reason isprobably thatthe assessmentis usually performed,based on the limited data due to the scarcity of op-erating experience and/or on the incompleteknowledge due to the complexity of phenomenaembedded in severe accidents[1] .In the literature,subjective expert' s judgment is also called expertjud…     

CRC通用校验测试工具的设计与实现

CRC(循环冗余校验码)编码是数字信号传输中用得较普遍的一种差错控制编码.它不但可以用于纠正独立的随机错误,也可以用于纠正突发错误.目前已有的CRC校验算法程序很多,但往往只以一种生成多项式为例进行编写,缺少完整、通用性好、用户界面良好的应用软件.介绍了一种CRC通用校验测试工具的设计与实现过程,本测试工具将各种类型的CRC校验算法进行汇总,类型全、计算精度高、速度快、用户界面好、易操作.