紧急疏散情况下地铁车站动态瓶颈识别

随着城市轨道交通系统逐渐成网,地铁车站日渐拥挤,为了制定科学有效的紧急疏散方案,有必要预先找到车站瓶颈点。基于时间可靠度函数模拟乘客在紧急情况下路径选择行为,在此基础上引入M//G/C/C排队模型对车站排队系统各个服务台进行排队性能指标计算,找出潜在瓶颈点。以广州地铁3号线岗顶站为例,结合车站硬件设施尺寸数量,模拟计算最恶劣情况下乘客疏散过程,找到3处潜在瓶颈点,测算结果与实际观测情况相符合,验证了该方法的有效性。     

An exploratory investigation of the impact of ramp metering on driver acceleration behavior

Ramp metering has been proven as an effective freeway management strategy; however, the impact of ramp metering on drivers' acceleration behavior has not been fully investigated. A better understanding of acceleration behavior changes with ramp metering is critical to the adequate design of ramp metering facilities. In this study, drivers' speed and acceleration data were collected at two representative metered ramps in Los Angeles, California. The speed and acceleration profiles under meter-on and meter-off scenarios were compared. Statistical results demonstrated that ramp metering affects drivers' acceleration behavior at ramp acceleration lane. It was found that at the metered ramp with short existing acceleration length, the average acceleration rate from ramp meter stop bar to 500 ft downstream under meter-on scenario (4.72 ft./s²) is approximately 40% higher than when meter-off (3.18 ft./s²). The design of acceleration lane length for metered on-ramps should therefore take into account the potential impacts of ramp metering on driver acceleration behavior.     

Experimental and numerical investigation on the derailment of a railway wheelset with solid axle

This paper presents the results of an experimental and numerical investigation on the derailment of a railway wheelset with solid axle. Tests were carried out under quasi-steady-state conditions, on a full-scale roller rig, and allowed to point out the effect of different parameters like the wheelset's angle of attack and the ratio between the vertical loads acting on the flanging and non-flanging wheels. On the basis of the test results, some existing derailment criteria are analysed in this paper and two new criteria are proposed. A model of wheel–rail contact is proposed for the mathematical modelling of the flange climb process, and numerical vs. experimental comparisons are used to obtain model validation.     

海上安全信息船舶收听率统计方法研究

通过对海岸电台覆盖范围内船舶接收安全信息情况的统计，可获知信息中心发布的信息资源的利用率，有利于工作人员选择合适的播发方式播发海上安全信息以获取更高的信息覆盖面。以统计学理论为基础建立了一种海上安全信息船舶收听率统计模型，并以实例进行分析，验证了所提模型的可靠性和实用价值。     

Real-time model predictive control of connected electric vehicles

ABSTRACT

Electric Vehicles (EVs) motors develop high torque at low speeds, resulting in a high rate of acceleration with the added advantage of being fitted with smaller gearboxes. However, a rapid rise of torque in EVs fitted with central drive powertrains can create undesired torsional oscillations, which are influenced by wheel slip and flexibility in the halfshaft. These torsional oscillations in the halfshaft lead to longitudinal oscillations in the vehicle, thus creating problems with regard to comfort and drivability. The significance of using wheel slip in addition to halfshaft torsion for design of anti-jerk controllers for EVs has already been highlighted in our previous research. In this research, we have designed a look-ahead model predictive controller (LA-MPC) that calculates the required motor torque demand to meet the dual objectives of increased traction and anti-jerk control. The designed LA-MPC will improve drivability and energy consumption in connected EVs. The real-time capability of the LA-MPC has been demonstrated through hardware-in-the-loop experiments. The performance of the LA-MPC has been compared to other controllers presented in the literature. A validated high-fidelity longitudinal-dynamics model of the Rav4EV, which is the test vehicle of our research has been used to evaluate the controller.     

建设项目交通影响费取值研究

随着对交通问题认识和研究的深入,交通影响分析的思想越来越受到国内交通规划学界和交通工程专家的重视。尤其是交通影响费的取值问题已越来越为专家学者和TIA工作者所关注,这是因为交通影响费是协调项目建设与交通之间关系、控制交通需求的有效手段。而如何根据中国的实际情况收取交通影响费始终是交通影响费理论研究和实际工作中需要解决的重点问题。该文在总结归纳目前国内外常用交通影响费取值方法的基础上,提出了适合我国的费用计算方法。在兼顾公平与效率的基础上,建立了交通影响费分摊优化模型,并以算例说明模型的应用方法。     

深基坑双排桩结构受力变形机理及其计算模型研究

近年来,为了适应国内城市地下工程建设蓬勃发展带来的地下工程密集化、复杂化等方面的需要,深基坑开挖时双排桩围护结构因具有侧向刚度大、控制变形能力强、施工快速等特点在各种大型深基坑工程中得到了较为广泛的推广和应用。但实际设计过程中,由于该结构的变形机理与计算模型尚未有统一的理论,其设计方法比较杂乱,存在一定程度的保守设计。依托南京梅子洲青奥城地下空间工程及其现场监测数据,采用有限元计算模型对近年来在地下工程中逐渐得到推广使用的双排桩围护结构的变形机理、土压力分布规律等进行探讨和研究;在此基础上,结合与目前广为应用的理正双排桩模型和新规范双排桩模型的对比分析,研究并提出更吻合实际的、精确反映结构变形和力学特性的双排桩围护结构的修正设计计算模型,该模型架构清晰,准确性高,贴近实际工程设计,可以大力推广应用于双排桩结构的计算分析。     

基于改进IDM-GARCH模型的速度波动不确定性研究（双语出版）

为定量分析跟驰行为中由驾驶人感知不确定性产生的速度波动不确定性，基于改进IDM-GARCH模型研究了后车速度波动存在的异方差性。首先，提出在经典智能驾驶模型中加入速度差刺激项和非对称系数，以增强速度波动方程残差项的实际意义。在此基础上，为度量速度波动的不确定性引入异方差的思想，并验证速度波动方程残差项的异方差性，最后运用广义自回归条件异方差模型对其异方差性建模。实证分析中，采用了美国联邦公路管理局主导下的下一代仿真项目中真实有效的跟驰数据。研究结果表明：改进的IDM模型能有效地拟合实际跟驰行为中后车的速度变化，且较经典IDM模型在精度上有了很大提高；同时，GARCH类模型估计的条件方差也能准确反映后车速度波动的趋势和幅度，以及不同驾驶人驾驶行为的差异。     

城市轨道交通站点客流不确定性研究

为提高城市轨道交通站点客流预测的可靠性,在分析客流不确定性影响因素的基础上,基于ARIMA-GARCH模型,依据南京地铁珠江路站点客流数据对客流不确定性进行建模和预测,并从预测置信区间和无效覆盖率两方面与传统的时间序列进行对比分析,研究结果表明,ARIMA-GARCH能够较好地拟合客流波动情况,为城市轨道交通运营与管理提供理论依据。     

基于熵权-物元模型的轨道交通建设时序研究

结合轨道交通建设特点,基于物元可拓数学方法、熵权理论和关联度函数,建立轨道交通建设时序决策的熵权物元可拓模型。该方法首先结合熵权理论,根据指标差异度对评价指标进行客观赋权;其次通过客观标准对评价指标的经典域进行区间界定,利用综合关联度将多指标的评价模型转化为单目标决策;然后依据定量测算的加权综合关联度值综合判定建设时序,最后以成都市轨道交通线网进行实例分析。结果表明:该决策算法所确定的结果与实际建设时序一致,且该算法可以极大拓展研究范围,表征更多分异信息,有效支撑城市轨道交通线网建设时序的综合决策。