Forecasting travel behavior using Markov Chains-based approaches

Recent advances in agent-based micro-simulation modeling have further highlighted the importance of a thorough full synthetic population procedure for guaranteeing the correct characterization of real-world populations and underlying travel demands. In this regard, we propose an integrated approach including Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and profiling-based methods to capture the behavioral complexity and the great heterogeneity of agents of the true population through representative micro-samples. The population synthesis method is capable of building the joint distribution of a given population with its corresponding marginal distributions using either full or partial conditional probabilities or both of them simultaneously. In particular, the estimation of socio-demographic or transport-related variables and the characterization of daily activity-travel patterns are included within the framework. The fully probabilistic structure based on Markov Chains characterizing this framework makes it innovative compared to standard activity-based models. Moreover, data stemming from the 2010 Belgian Household Daily Travel Survey (BELDAM) are used to calibrate the modeling framework. We illustrate that this framework effectively captures the behavioral heterogeneity of travelers. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the proposed framework is adequately adapted to meeting the demand for large-scale micro-simulation scenarios of transportation and urban systems.     

The impact of major road developments on the spheres of urban influence of Japanese cities

This study aims to measure the impact of major road developments on the spheres of urban influence of Japanese cities.First, the sphere of urban influence is defined by application of an individual behavior model. The model explains the number of trips to representative cities in regions from the residential place of each individual using the following factors; the attractiveness of cities, the travel time to cities and the individual's free time. Development of major roads shortens the travel time, and this causes the change in the sphere of urban influence. The model we propose has the structure to explain this phenomenon.Second, this method is applied to all of Japan where expressways are now being rapidly constructed and, how they change spheres of urban influence is explained. In the application, as a measure of attractiveness of cities, population, commercial and industrial activity, etc. are considered. From these points of view, the impacts of construction of expressways in Japan are estimated.     

Formal scientific research of traffic collision data utilizing GIS

This paper explores the tenuous link between speeding behavior and accident causation, one that has not been well established in the international literature to date. Taking advantage of established engineering conventions and formulae, we were able to set up an a priori hypothesis suitable for testing. Utilizing this formal scientific method (which GIS researchers have been criticised for not using) we establish a statistical link for this relationship. Our methodology can be used to support all police intervention strategies, including the controversial photo radar systems. The results from our research have been entered into a GIS in order to create a map for spatial display. This map illustrates the relative probability or risk of collision occurrence resulting from speeding at all intersections and interchanges within the scope of the study. It is suggested that this methodology could easily be maintained with periodic updates of data, thus creating a dynamic model from which to monitor traffic safety within the city. Furthermore, this model can be utilized to study specific strategies, allowing for the scrutiny of before, during and after effects. The study area is the entire city of Calgary, Alberta, Canada, and includes all traffic collisions occurring during the year of 1994.     

新型GFRP组合梁翼缘有效分布宽度分析

利用能量变分法推导出均布线荷载作用下新型GFRP组合梁翼缘有效分布宽度的理论公式,通过有限元数值模拟验证理论公式可靠性。并借鉴传统钢-混凝土组合梁分析方法,对新型GFRP组合梁翼缘有效分布宽度各种影响因素进行了参数分析。     

An analysis of the determinants of children’s weekend physical activity participation

This paper examines the out-of-home, weekend, time-use patterns of children aged 5–17 years, with a specific emphasis on their physical activity participation. The impact of several types of factors, including individual and household demographics, neighborhood demographics, built environment characteristics, and activity day variables, on physical activity participation is analyzed using a joint nested multiple discrete–continuous extreme value-binary choice model. The sample for analysis is drawn from the 2000 San Francisco Bay Area Travel Survey. The model developed in the paper can be used to assess the impacts of changing demographics and built environment characteristics on children’s physical activity levels.     

驾驶行为研究模拟舱实验整体方案

在介绍AutoSim模拟舱的基本组成、功能的基础上，从交通系统组成的人、车、路的角度，提出了利用驾驶模拟舱进行驾驶行为研究的参数选择、数据库的结构、场景定制等关键技术，并提出了可行的技术路线和实验方案。     

体外预应力对T形刚构桥振动特性的影响

以苏丹喀土穆州布瑞大桥主桥加固工程为工程背景，采用通用有限元软件ANSYS对体外预应力加固T形刚构桥的振动特性进行研究，提出避免结构发生共振的措施，对于指导工程实践有实用价值。     

最小二乘平差在纸海图矢量化过程中的应用

在矢量化纸海图时,由于基准点的采样误差,导致转换参数的误差,最终导致电子海图的空间对象的精度不高。本文应用最小二乘法对基准点的采样误差实施平差,提高转换参数的精度,最终可较大幅度地提高电子海图中空间对象的精度     

道路监控补光灯对青年驾驶员夜间行车安全影响研究

为了研究夜间环境道路监控补光灯对青年驾驶员驾驶行为的影响,考虑不同光照强度和是否存在行人横穿道路行为2个变量,通过UC-win/Road软件设计城市道路仿真场景,采用驾驶模拟器开展试验,并结合眼动仪、生理记录仪采集青年驾驶员的视觉、生理及驾驶操作3种特性指标。再利用重复测量方差分析方法,分析变量对青年驾驶员的3种特性的影响及其显著性水平。结果表明：①无论是否存在行人横穿道路行为,随着光照强度的增加,青年驾驶员的注视时间、瞳孔面积变化率及脑电(α+θ)/β均减小,心率增长率、制动踏板深度比例及制动反应距离均增加,表明光照强度越大对青年驾驶员的视觉、生理、驾驶操作特性越不利;②在存在行人横穿道路行为时,光照强度对青年驾驶员的视觉、生理及驾驶操作特性的影响更加明显;③当光照强度小于50 lx时,脑电(α+θ)/β和驾驶操作指标变化较缓,而光照强度大于50 lx时,脑电(α+θ)/β指标下降显著,变化率大于10%,其数值低于3.70,表明青年驾驶员产生情绪波动,警觉性显著增大,制动踏板深度比例显著增大,其数值大于0.55,制动反应距离超过13.40 m,制动操作力度较大,操作稳定性降低,且避让行人的成功率显著降低,不利于夜间行车。因此,建议道路监控补光灯的光照强度宜小于50 lx。     

The use of gait parameters to evaluate pedestrian behavior at scramble phase signalized intersections

Pedestrian scramble phasing is usually implemented to reduce pedestrian‐vehicle conflicts and therefore increase the safety of the intersection. However, to adequately determine the benefits of scramble phasing, it is necessary to understand how pedestrians react to such an unconventional design. This study investigates changes in pedestrian crossing behavior following the implementation of a scramble phase by examining the spatiotemporal gait parameters (step length and step frequency). This detailed microscopic‐level analysis provides insight into changes in pedestrian walking mechanisms as well as the effect of various pedestrian and intersection characteristics. The study uses video data collected at a scramble phase signalized intersection in Oakland, California. Gait parameters were found to be influenced by pedestrian gender, age, group size, crosswalk length, and pedestrian signal indications. Both average step length and walking speed were significantly higher for diagonally crossing pedestrians compared with pedestrians crossing on the conventional crosswalks. Pedestrians were found to have the tendency to increase their step length more than their step frequency to increase walking speed. It was also found that, compared with men, women generally increase their walking speed by increasing their step frequency more than step length. However, when in non‐compliance with signal indications, women increase their walking speed by increasing their step length more than step frequency. It was also found that older pedestrians do not significantly change their walking behavior when in non‐compliance with signal indications. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.