无信控路段人行横道处行人过街建模与仿真

为精细化描述无信控路段人行横道处行人过街决策及微观运动行为,本文在行人过街行为分析的基础上,基于战术层-操作层构建行人过街双层模型。其中,在战术层面,针对行人分步决策特性,利用二元Logistic回归模型构建路侧和路中行人过街决策模型;在操作层面,针对传统社会力模型在描述行人过街时表现出的局限性,引入行人主动避让力和人行横道对行人的作用力,构建行人过街微观运动模型。最后,通过AnyLogic仿真平台实现行人过街双层模型仿真,并根据实际数据和仿真结果分析模型有效性。结果表明：相较于路侧决策模型,行人性别、停车视距内的车辆数和行人距潜在冲突点的距离这3个因素对行人路中决策结果影响更显著,引入行人主动避让力和人行横道对行人作用力的改进社会力模型,能更好地反映无信控路段行人过街时的行为特征。无信控路段人行横道处行人过街行为仿真模型的有效建立,能为后续行人过街安全改善方案提供决策支持。     

网联环境下混合交通流偶发拥堵演化机理研究

针对混合交通流中智能网联车辆(Connected and Autonomous Vehicles, CAVs)和人工驾驶车辆的交织干涉问题,本文在传统交通流统计理论模型和一阶连续介质模型的基础上,通过引入智能驾驶员跟驰模型(Intelligent driver model, IDM)和协同自适应巡航控制模型(Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control, CACC),构建人工驾驶车辆和CAVs的混合交通流偶发拥堵演化模型,探索CAVs混入和诱导干涉措施对混合交通流偶发性拥堵传播规律的影响。实验选取重庆市华陶立交至巴南立交路段为路网原型,对CAVs不同渗透率( Pc )下的路段拥堵演化情况进行仿真。实验结果表明：CAVs渗透率越高,混合流流量、占有率和速度的改善情况越显著,但只有当 Pc ≥ 0.2 时,网联车辆对拥堵消散的改善效果才较为明显;Pc ≤ 0.8 时,干涉措施下,拥堵消散状态的持续时间约为不采用干涉措施的 50%;当 Pc = 1.0 时,网联车辆的通行能力是纯人工驾驶交通流的2.34倍;分别在非干涉措施和干涉措施下计算拥堵评价指标,与仿真结果进行对比,最大相对误差在5.38%之内,验证了模型的准确性。研究成果对疏散交通拥堵具有重要意义。     

异步真空预压法处理超软土的室内试验及机理*

针对真空预压处理超软地基过程中出现的排水板滤膜外土颗粒聚集现象,提出并通过室内试验研究一种新型真空预压方式——异步真空预压法。该法对相邻的竖向排水体在同一时间下施加不同的真空度,实现对超软土的异步真空吸水预压,缓解因土颗粒单向迁移造成排水体滤膜及膜外土体的淤堵。通过室内试验发现,真空度调节对真空预压的处理效果具有明显影响,同时,异步吸水真空预压排水量是常规真空预压的1.1倍,效果优于常规真空预压;通过对异步真空预压法的机理分析,认为异步真空预压法可保持零速面移动范围内的细颗粒含量,防止细颗粒的过量迁移,有助于缓解超软土的固结排水中的淤堵问题。     

等惯性两区段分散输水系统在40 m级单级巨型船闸中的应用*

输水系统是船闸实现其功能的关键设施,其设计直接影响船闸工程的安全与效率。等惯性四区段出水分散输水系统是目前国内外高水头大型船闸常用的输水系统形式,但其结构复杂、建设难度大,且由于设置第二分流口而带来自身空化等问题。为解决上述问题,结合我国内河船闸特点,通过国内外工程资料分析、理论与计算分析、物理模型试验等手段,提出并验证了“闸墙长廊道+闸室中心立体分流+闸底两区段四纵支廊道出水+侧支孔+明沟消能”的等惯性两区段输水系统形式在40 m级单级巨型船闸中的适用性,为高水头大型船闸建设提供参考和依据。     

Time-variant ultimate longitudinal strength of corroded bulk carriers

Many bulk carrier losses have been reported of late, and one of the possible causes of such casualties is thought to be the structural failure of aging hulls in rough weather. In aging ships, corrosion and fatigue cracks are the two most important factors affecting structural safety and integrity. This paper uses a set of the time-dependent corrosion wastage models for 23 different member locations/categories of bulk carriers previously developed by the authors, based on the available corrosion measurements for existing large bulk carrier structures. Differences due to the location and corrosion severity of every member type are taken into account. The nominal design corrosion values for the primary members are suggested based on the annualized corrosion rates obtained in the present study. The effect of time-variant corrosion wastage on the ultimate hull girder strength as well as the section moduli is studied. The criteria for repair and maintenance of heavily corroded structural members so as to keep the ultimate longitudinal strength at an acceptable level are discussed. Important insights and conclusions developed are summarized.     

城市高架桥节段箱梁新型预制工艺研究及应用

通过对箱梁节段预制一般采用的长线法和短线法各自的特点进行介绍,结合工程实例,提出了将两种方法融合在一起的新方法,并阐述其工艺原理、施工流程、质量控制,以及采用该方法时模版系统的设计与实施。     

道路交通统计生命价值测算模型及其验证

基于参数服从SB分布的混合Logit 模型进行道路交通统计生命价值的测算研究. 首先，结合意愿选择法和正交实验法设计出行路径选择调查问卷；然后，基于死亡风险系数服从对数正态分布和SB分布的混合Logit 模型，构建统计生命价值测算模型；接着以大连市私家车出行者为调查对象获得调查数据，并利用Monte Carlo 仿真方法进行模型参数标定；最后，对模型进行比较分析，并获得统计生命价值的测算值. 研究结果表明：死亡风险参数服从限制域为(0.0, 0.5)SB分布的混合Logit 模型，精确性更高且更合理；道路交通统计生命价值测算值为 105.76万元，这一结果可以作为道路交通安全项目经济评价的参考数据.     

A competing Markov model for cracking prediction on civil structures

Cracks on the surface of civil structures (e.g. pavement sections, concrete structures) progress in several formations and under different deterioration mechanisms. In monitoring practice, it is often that cracking type with its worst damage level is selected as a representative condition state, while other cracking types and their damage levels are neglected in records, remaining as hidden information. Therefore, the practice in monitoring has a potential to conceal with a bias selection process, which possibly result in not optimal intervention strategies. In overcoming these problems, our paper presents a non-homogeneous Markov hazard model, with competing hazard rates. Cracking condition states are classified in three types (longitudinal crack, horizontal crack, and alligator crack), with three respective damage levels. The dynamic selection of cracking condition states are undergone a competing process of cracking types and damage levels. We apply a numerical solution using Bayesian estimation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to solve the problem of high-order integration of complete likelihood function. An empirical study on a data-set of Japanese pavement system is presented to demonstrate the applicability and contribution of the model.     

Evolution of latent modal captivity and mode choice patterns for commuting trips: A longitudinal analysis using repeated cross-sectional datasets

This paper presents an investigation of the temporal evolution of commuting mode choice preference structures. It contributes to two specific modelling issues: latent modal captivity and working with multiple repeated crossectional datasets. In this paper latent modal captivity refers to captive reliance on a specific mode rather than all feasible modes. Three household travel survey datasets collected in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) over a ten-year time period are used for empirical modelling. Datasets collected in different years are pooled and separate year-specific scale parameters and coefficients of key variables are estimated for different years. The empirical model clearly explains that there have been significant changes in latent modal captivity and the mode choice preference structures for commuting in the GTHA. Changes have occurred in the unexplained component of latent captivities, in transportation cost perceptions, and in the scales of commuting mode choice preferences. The empirical model also demonstrates that pooling multiple repeated cross-sectional datasets is an efficient way of capturing behavioural changes over time. Application of the proposed mode choice model for practical policy analysis and forecasting will ensure accurate forecasting and an enhanced understanding of policy impacts.