A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis

We propose a route choice model that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives property of the logit model by allowing scale parameters to be link specific. Similar to the recursive logit (RL) model proposed by Fosgerau et al. (2013), the choice of path is modeled as a sequence of link choices and the model does not require any sampling of choice sets. Furthermore, the model can be consistently estimated and efficiently used for prediction.A key challenge lies in the computation of the value functions, i.e. the expected maximum utility from any position in the network to a destination. The value functions are the solution to a system of non-linear equations. We propose an iterative method with dynamic accuracy that allows to efficiently solve these systems.We report estimation results and a cross-validation study for a real network. The results show that the NRL model yields sensible parameter estimates and the fit is significantly better than the RL model. Moreover, the NRL model outperforms the RL model in terms of prediction.     

Continuum theory for pedestrian traffic flow: Local route choice modelling and its implications

This contribution puts forward a novel multi-class continuum model that captures some of the key dynamic features of pedestrian flows. It considers route choice behaviour on both the strategic (pre-trip) and tactical (en-route) level. To achieve this, we put forward a class-specific equilibrium direction relation of the pedestrians, which is governed by two parts: one part describing the global route choice, which is pre-determined based on the expectations of the pedestrians, and one part describing the local route choice, which is a density-gradient dependent term that reflects local adaptations based on prevailing flow conditions.Including the local route choice term in the multi-class model causes first of all dispersion of the flow: pedestrians will move away from high density areas in order to reduce their overall walking costs. Second of all, for the crossing flow and bi-directional flow cases, local route choice causes well known self-organised patterns to emerge (i.e. diagonal stripes and bi-directional lanes). We study under which demand conditions self-organisation occurs and fails, as well as what the impact is of the choices of the different model parameters. In particular, the differences in the weights reflecting the impact of the own and the other classes appear to have a very strong impact on the self-organisation process.     

A stated preference examination of time of travel choice for a recreational trip

A stated preference experiment was performed in Calgary in Canada to examine how people are influenced in the selection of a departure time for a hypothetical trip to see a movie. A total of 635 complete observations were obtained. In each observation the respondent was presented with a set of possible departure time scenarios and asked to indicate the order of preference for these scenarios. Each scenario was described by specifying the automobile travel time, the expected arrival time relative to the movie start time, the parking cost, the probability of being at least ten minutes late for the movie and the length of time the movie had been running. This forced the respondent to trade off between conditions regarding these attributes. Age, gender and frequency of movie attendance were also recorded. The observations thus obtained were used to estimate the parameter values for a range of alternative utility functions in logit models representing this choice behaviour. The results indicate that all of the attributes included have significant effects on departure time choice in the situation being considered. They also indicate that travellers are prepared to arrive roughly two minutes early for each minute of travel time saved; that the money value of driving time for trips to recreational activities is about half that for trips to work; that one additional percent in the probability of arriving late is equivalent to roughly 0.20 Canadian dollars or 1.93 minutes drive time; and that there is a preference for a non-zero expected early arrival time regardless of the associated probability of arriving late. Some of these results are novel and others are consistent with findings for work trips in work done by others, which is seen to add credence to the approach being used here.     

超限严格管制下公路货运运力结构预测研究

针对传统的超限运输运力结构预测模型中,将车辆超限部分轴载转化为同一车型满轴载通过假设的不足,本文基于运力均衡的思想建立了超限严格管制下公路货运运力结构预测模型。在轴载调查的基础上,模型以单车装载量的累积概率分布需同单位货物重量的累积概率分布相一致为求解目标,推测了各轴型车辆总重谱的偏移情况,进而对超限管制变动下的公路货运车型结构及运量结构进行预测。模型在公路安徽世行项目II———超载运输研究中的使用结果表明,在超限运输严格管制条件下,2-S2将取代SU2成为公路货运的主力车型。     

初始条件对驾驶员逐日路径选择行为和网络交通流演化的影响

从查阅到的文献可以看到,在驾驶员逐日路径选择行为及网络交通流演化的研究中,均假定驾驶员第1天对路径的理解行程时间相同,也即初始条件中没有考虑驾驶员的个体差异性。首先,对初始条件和驾驶员逐日路径选择过程建模,在2条平行路径的简单路网中,运用Agent仿真方法模拟了不同初始条件下驾驶员逐日路径选择过程。结果表明：路网达到平衡所需的时间与驾驶员对历史信息的依赖程度显著相关,而与第1天驾驶员对路径行程时间理解的相关差异性不显著;路网平衡和用户平衡的差别与两者均显著相关。虽然在不同情况下路网均能够达到近似的用户平衡状态,但是平衡时驾驶员对2条路径的理解行程时间存在较大差异。     

从机会成本的角度谈稳定层摊铺机械的选型

从经济学观点出发 ,利用机会成本原理 ,结合本公司承建的电湛高速公路路面工程特点 ,对该路面工程所应用的基层摊铺机的选型方案进行分析     

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提出了通过具体的效用度量对出行者路径选择行为进行分析的方法。从传统的期望效用理论和前景理论两个方面，对一份关于出行者路径选择的调查数据进行了分析；验证了出行者群体在不确定环境下进行路径选择时，效用度量是基本决策规则，并且其效用度量体系与前景理论针对一般经济主体的效用度量体系接近。最后借助图形说明了合理设定出行者风险态度水平的重要性。     

基于多层次灰关联分析的船型方案优选法研究

如何从多种船型方案中正确选择出一种最佳方案,一直是船舶设计人员需要去研究和解决的一个重要课题.文中根据船舶技术指标体系的层次结构特点,将灰色系统理论应用到船型方案的决策上来,提出了一种多目标、多层次的船型方案灰色优选理论模型,以低层次的输出作为高层次的输入,对每一层次的单元系统进行优选计算,最后利用总的关联度进行排序,对船型方案进行优选.实例应用结果证明该方法使用简便,切实可行.     

The influence of bus service satisfaction on university students' mode choice

The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between bus service satisfaction and the transport mode of choice among university students in Qatar. The degree of bus service satisfaction was collected directly from questionnaire surveys, in which university students were asked questions in relation to their satisfaction with the bus service they used and their transport mode of choice. These questions were categorized into three factors according to confirmatory factor analysis: service at bus stops, service of busses, and service of drivers. Furthermore, the students were asked which mode of transport they used given the choice between public and private transport. This study presents a structural equation model to determine how much bus service satisfaction affects people's decisions about their transport mode. The results from the analysis showed that three key factors—namely, service at bus stops, service of busses, and service of bus drivers—were strongly correlated to the mode of choice. In particular, the bus stop was strongly associated with ease of use, shade, cleanliness, safety, and crowdedness level, while the bus itself influenced reliability, travel time, and frequency. Complying with traffic laws and the driver's attitude were also important contributors to the level of bus service satisfaction. Ultimately, this study will be beneficial for policy/decision‐makers. It will allow them to determine what needs to be accomplished to encourage people to use public transportation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Extending stated choice analysis to recognise agent-specific attribute endogeneity in bilateral group negotiation and choice: a think piece

This paper is a think piece on variations in the structure of stated preference studies when modelling the joint preferences of interacting agents who have the power to influence the attribute levels on offer. The approach proposed is an extension of standard stated choice methods, known as ‘stated endogenous attribute level’ (SEAL) analysis. It allows for interactive agents to adjust attribute levels off a base stated choice specification that are within their control, in an effort to reach agreement in an experimental setting. This accomplishes three goals: (1) the ability to place respondents in an environment that more closely matches interactive settings in which some attribute levels are endogenous to a specific agent, should the modeller wish to capture such behaviour; (2) the improved ability of the modeller to capture the behaviour in such settings, including a greater wealth of information on the related interaction processes, rather than simply outcomes; and (3) the expansion of the set of situations that the modeller can investigate using experimental data.