Reliability Copula Model for Wind Turbine Gearbox Based on Failure Correlation

On the basis of each gear’s failure correlation, the reliability Copula model of a wind turbine gearbox is established and a 1.5 MW wind turbine gearbox is taken as the research object. Firstly, based on the dynamic reliability model of mechanical parts, each gear’s life distribution function of a wind turbine gearbox is obtained.The life distribution function can be used as the marginal distributions of the system’s joint distribution. Secondly,Copula function is introduced to describe the failure correlation between parts, and the appropriate Copula function is selected according to the shape characters of Copula probability density function. Finally, the wind turbine gearbox system is divided into three parts according to the failure correlation of each gear. The Sklar theorem and the thought of step by step analysis are used to obtain the reliability Copula model for a wind turbine gearbox based on failure correlation.     

NDIR方法应用于汽油车NO排气检测的试验研究

为改善在用点燃式轻型汽车简易工况NO排气检测准确性,将NDIR检测法应用于NO的排放检测。采用比对测试方法,在184辆在用轻型汽油车的ASM排放检测中,同时采用NDIR方法与通用的电化学法进行排气NO浓度测试。测试结果表明,对于NO检测,NDIR方法与工况的跟随性较电化学方法好,电化学方法测试响应时间较NDIR方法滞后7~8s。采用有限差分法对两种检测方法的检测灵敏度进行分析,得出NDIR法的灵敏度为11.87,电化学法为6.97。分析NDIR法、电化学法两种检测方法下NO测试浓度值的相关性,发现两者高度线性相关,相关系数为0.98。研究结果表明NDIR方法完全适用于ASM工况NO排气浓度检测,其检测准确率较电化学方法高。     

基于Matlab的铁路内部因素与货运量的灰色关联分析

随着货运改革的深入进行,铁路货运量已经呈现增长趋势。但是除了运营模式的因素,铁路内部影响货运量的因素也有很多。从铁路内部因素中选取一系列铁路运输统计指标,运用Matlab编制程序对选取的指标进行灰色关联度分析,根据灰色关联度的大小判断指标与货运量的关系程度是否密切,总结出与货运量关系密切的几个指标并提出相关建议,为货运量分析和货运改革以及相关决策奠定基础。     

连续桥面梁桥柔性墩纵向水平力分析与计算

结合现行公路桥梁设计规范,系统阐述用于连续桥面梁桥柔性墩水平力分配计算较为科学简明的集成抗推刚度法,介绍各类纵向水平力的参数取值及计算方法,并以实例予以说明。     

盾构穿越花岗岩球状风化孤石群的施工关键技术

为解决盾构穿越孤石群地层的难题,对花岗岩风化孤石的形成机制及盾构穿越孤石群产生的地面沉降、姿态控制、设备安全的风险进行研究,并分析传统孤石处理方法在孤石群地层中运用的局限性。主要结论如下:1)盾构穿越孤石群施工应系统考虑孤石预处理、掘进和开舱换刀方案;2)采用地下隐蔽岩体爆破技术对孤石进行爆破破碎后能降低盾构掘进风险,并且盾构通过期间须严格控制掘进参数;3)采用压密注浆改良刀盘周边地层,盾尾止水和舱内制作泥膜措施辅助带压进舱,能提高开舱成功率,解决刀具更换的问题。     

盾构施工参数对土体及单桩的影响

采用对隧道洞室周边及开挖面的土体施加由盾构机引起的各种荷载的方法模拟盾构施工,通过变化注浆压力及推进力研究盾构施工对周边土体及单桩基础的影响.增加注浆压力是减小盾构推进对周围土体影响的最有效的措施.当注浆压力足够大,推进力、盾尾脱离及浆液硬化对土体的影响程度相同.若使隧道顶点的沉降及隧道底部土体的回弹减小相同的数量,底部注浆孔的压力要大于顶部注浆孔的压力.当推进力大于临界值时,推进力对隧道周边土体的影响明显增加.隧道周边及地表处各点的位移变化主要发生在盾构机通过这些点所在位置时,衬砌生成后,随后的开挖步对其影响很小.桩侧隧道洞室衬砌生成后,随后开挖步施加的注浆压力可以明显减小桩顶沉降,注浆压力越大,桩顶最终沉降越小.推进力对桩顶沉降影响不明显.盾构施工引起的桩顶和桩底的沉降始终相同,即桩整体下沉.桩顶无荷载及桩顶施加工作荷载时,开挖引起的桩顶沉降相同;桩顶施加极限荷载时,开挖引起的桩顶沉降明显增加.     

基于参数相关性分析的产品寿命分布类型确定

寿命是产品可靠性的一个重要指标,为了解决不能从试验数据直接判断寿命分布类型的问题,在分析常见的寿命分布类型的适用情况、特征和规律的基础上,通过运用相关性分析和假设检验的方法,对判断产品寿命分布类型的算法进行了改进,并借助Matlab软件对该算法进行了仿真验证,结果表明该算法对常见的产品寿命分布具有通用性,可以运用该算法完成试验数据的自动化处理,描述诸如产品可靠性曲线、失效率曲线等可靠性参数,对产品的研发、使用、维修和维护提供参考。     

声呐导流罩关键结构参数对航行阻力的影响

外形轮廓和结构参数是决定声呐导流罩航行阻力与水声性能的主要因素,导流罩突出于船体的底部或首部,可以明显降低水流对声呐探测性能的影响,但其在一定程度上增大了航行阻力。本文通过数值方法研究导流罩的最大水面线长宽比和最大纵剖面宽高比等关键结构参数对某I型船航行阻力的影响。结果表明,声呐导流罩的长宽比为3.4~3.6及宽高比为1.1~1.2时,船航行时所受的阻力明显比加装其他比例的导流罩小,且其排水体积相对整个船的排水体积也较小,综合性能最佳。数值结果与相关的实验数据吻合较好。     

Transition choice probabilities and welfare analysis in random utility models with imperfect before–after correlation

Welfare in random utility models is used to be analysed on the basis of only the expectation of the compensating variation. De Palma and Kilani (De Palma, A., Kilani, K., 2011. Transition choice probabilities and welfare analysis in additive random utility models. Economic Theory 46(3), 427–454) have developed a framework for conditional welfare analysis which provides analytic expressions of transition choice probabilities and associated welfare measures. The contribution is of practical relevance in transportation because it allows to compute shares of shifters and non-shifters and attribute benefits to them in a rigorous way. In De Palma and Kilani (2011) the usual assumption of unchanged random terms before and after is made.The paper generalises the framework for conditional welfare analysis to cases of imperfect before–after association of the random terms. The joint before–after distribution of the random terms is introduced with postulated properties in terms of marginal distributions and covariance matrix. Analytic expressions, based on the probability density function and the cumulative distribution function of the joint before–after distribution, and simulation procedures for computation of the transition choice probabilities and the conditional expectations of the compensating variation are provided. Results are specialised for multinomial logit and probit. In the case without income effects, it is proved that the unconditional expectation of the compensating variation depends only on the marginal distributions.The theory is illustrated by a numerical example which refers to a multinomial logit applied to the choice of the transport mode with two specifications, one without and one with income effects. Results show that transition probabilities and conditional welfare measures are affected significantly by the assumption on the before–after correlation. The variability in the transition probabilities across transitions tends to decrease as the before–after correlation decreases. In the extreme case of independent random terms, the conditional expectations of the compensating variation tend to be close to the unconditional expectation.     

时速120km轨道交通线路平面曲线参数研究

采用SIMPACK动力仿真软件,建立适用于地铁线路参数分析的车-线耦合动力学模型,仿真线路曲线参数对列车的动力响应结果,分析曲线参数对列车运行性能的影响规律和控制因素,给出时速120 km的轨道交通线路曲线参数推荐值。