船舶绕避热带气旋安全-经济决策模型

为了同时对多个来源的热带气旋预报进行综合处理,对可供船舶选用的绕避方案从安全和经济效益两方面同时给予定量评价和分析,基于神经网络的多源热带气旋路径集成预报和未来风浪场确定技术、风险分析理论和模糊信息优化处理技术以及气象-经济决策理论等方面的最新研究成果,提出了一种可用于大洋中船舶绕避热带气旋方案选优的安全-经济决策模型。在对“天丽海”轮7个不同绕避热带气旋方案进行的模拟优选计算中,该模型能够根据决策者的具体要求,优选出效益最佳或效用最佳的绕航方案,得到的结论与多位具有丰富绕避热带气旋经验的船长分析的最佳绕航方案基本一致。     

Environmental life-cycle assessment of transit buses with alternative fuel technology

The paper presents a life-cycle assessment of costs and greenhouse gas emissions for transit buses deploying a hybrid input-output model to compare ultra-low sulfur diesel to hybrid diesel-electric, compressed natural gas, and hydrogen fuel-cell. We estimate the costs of emissions reductions from alternative fuel vehicles over the life cycle and examine the sensitivity of the results to changes in fuel prices, passenger demand, and to technological characteristics influencing performance and emissions. We find that the alternative fuel buses reduce operating costs and emissions, but increase life-cycle costs. The infrastructure requirement to deploy and operate alternative fuel buses is critical in the comparison of life-cycle emissions. Additionally, efficient bus choice is sensitive to passenger demand, but only moderately sensitive to technological characteristics, and that the relative efficiency of compressed natural gas buses is more sensitive to changes in fuel prices than that of the other bus types.     

大型运输车荷载作用下的刚构拱桥加固方案分析

文章通过运用大型通用有限元软件ANSYS建立桥梁有限元模型,对刚构拱桥在大型运输车荷载作用下的受力特点进行分析,提出针对性的加固方案,并采用有限元模型分析了加固方案的可行性。     

The changing role of decision support instruments in integrated infrastructure planning: lessons from the Sustainability Check

This article draws lessons about recent innovations in decision support for coping with challenges in integrated infrastructure planning strategies. After setting up a conceptual framework for the scope of analysis and the use of information in infrastructure planning, the empirical section explores the introduction of early-stage sustainability assessment tools. Data collection draws on experiences gained in the Netherlands with a new tool: ‘Sustainability Check’. We conclude that such instruments have a number of capacities that address the challenges of area-oriented planning: (a) bringing together information about the comprehensive value of alternatives, (b) facilitating the generation of alternatives, (c) addressing institutional fragmentation by learning about referential frames, and (d) adding contextual perspectives to the ‘hard’ outcomes of conventional tools. We also conclude that tools such as Sustainability Check should not be seen as a replacement for conventional decision support tools, but rather as complementary to them.     

基于层次分析和灰色聚类法的老龄导管架平台安全评估

为延长老龄导管架式海洋平台的使用寿命,对其进行安全评估具有重要意义.文章以渤海湾的一个老龄导管架平台为分析对象,建立了包含多重风险因素的安全评价指标体系,该体系包括三个层次:目标层,一级指标层,二级指标层.目标层包含3个一级指标:海洋环境,结构状态和人为因素.每个一级指标又分为3个二级指标.每个指标的权重通过层次分析法来计算以消除主观因素的影响.采用灰色聚类法定性和定量地评估导管架平台的失效风险.将风险评估标准分为5个等级,确定对应5个灰类的白化权函数.每个二级指标的灰色权向量由表上作业法计算得到.通过逐级计算,目标层的灰色评价值最终由灰色评价权向量单值化计算,灰色等级通过极大值原理确定.评价结果显示该老龄导管架平台失效风险等级是中等的.文中提出的安全评估方法是合理可行的.     

水下爆炸作用下对称结构船体梁整体损伤特性研究

基于相似原则设计了全封闭对称结构船体梁模型,将TNT炸药置于模型中部正下方爆炸,通过改变爆距和药量来研究梁模型在水下近距非接触爆炸作用下的整体损伤特性,比较爆炸气泡运动对梁结构造成的中垂和中拱弯曲损伤作用,探索近距条件下炸药爆炸造成梁发生整体损伤变形时的高效攻击方式。研究发现:在近距非接触爆炸作用下,当爆炸气泡脉动频率与梁一阶湿频率相近时,水下爆炸气泡对梁结构造成的损伤作用以中垂弯曲为主,且爆径比越小,中垂损伤作用越明显;若爆径比不变,随着药量的增大,梁的整体损伤模式会由中垂弯曲向中拱弯曲转变;一定爆距范围内,炸药在远距离多次爆炸比近距离一次爆炸所造成的梁结构中垂损伤变形要大。     

第二代完整稳性衡准直接评估方法研究

国际海事组织(IMO)船舶建造和设计委员会(SDC)4次会议把第二代完整稳性衡准直接评估方法提上议程,本文针对第二代完整稳性衡准的五种稳性失效模式——参数横摇、纯稳性丧失、骑浪/横甩、瘫船稳性和过度加速度,分别给出了直接评估的水动力原则性要求,然后针对这些水动力要求进行了分析,并给出了具体的数学模型.最后结合已有的计算结果对直接评估方法的可行性进行了分析,为二代稳性直接评估软件的开发和应用奠定了基础.     

攻角对半穿甲战斗部侵彻航母双层靶板的效应研究

采用数值仿真方法,建立半穿甲战斗部对航母双层板侵彻效应的数值仿真计算模型,并计算战斗部以6种不同攻角侵彻目标的动态响应过程.结果表明,攻角对战斗部侵彻航母双层靶的能力有显著影响.随着初始攻角增加,战斗部的靶后余速下降,当初始攻角为20°和25°时,战斗部未能穿透航母的吊舱甲板.战斗部撞击吊舱甲板的攻角相对于初始攻角均有所增加,严重影响了战斗部对吊舱甲板的侵彻能力.战斗部对目标的侵彻破坏模式均属于延性扩孔和冲塞破坏模式.战斗部侵彻航母双层靶的过载较大且高过载持续时间长.当攻角大于10°时,战斗部在侵彻第1层靶板时,横向过载比较明显,导致战斗部结构出现不同程度的弯曲变形,这些因素给战斗部的结构完整性、装药稳定性和引信可靠性带来严峻挑战.该研究可用于指导半穿甲战斗部设计及其毁伤效应研究.     

液货舱晃荡仿真及结构强度评估

大型船舶液货舱内的晃荡问题十分突出,为保证大型液货船的营运安全,有必要对晃荡载荷作用下的结构强度评估加以研究。文章首先用Dytran程序对某化学品船液货舱部分装载水平下的液面晃荡进行了仿真,得到监测点处的压力时历曲线以及典型时刻液面状态。仿真结果表明,应用HCSR规范中的简化公式计算晃荡载荷对液货舱大部分区域是合理的,但在高装载率下发生冲顶现象时舱顶角隅处的冲击压力远高于规范值。在此基础上,对晃荡载荷与其他载荷的组合方式、工况及需重点校核的构件进行了初步探讨,并根据此方法对某8万吨化学品船No.4货油舱进行了晃荡载荷作用下的结构评估。     

Assessment and Promotion of the Great Barrier Reef's Human Dimensions Through Collaboration

Increasingly, natural resource managers see the marine protected areas that they are responsible for as linked social-ecological systems. This requires an equal focus on managing for both natural and human dimensions of the protected estate. Consequently, identification of indicators that represent the human dimensions of Large Scale Marine Protected Areas (LSMPAs) such as the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is critical if these values are to be properly considered as part of standard management practice. Assessment and monitoring of the human dimensions of LSMPAs requires a replicable, collaborative process, rolled out at local scales but comparable across vast, socially and geographically diverse areas. This paper explores the application of a process for the development, assessment, and monitoring of the GBR's human dimensions. The process includes (a) development of a conceptual framework that links indicator sets to the desired state of the GBR's human dimensions; and (b) a collaborative approach including ten practical steps to implement assessment, monitoring, and benchmarking of the human dimensions of an LSMPA. We conclude with examination of challenges and opportunities for implementing this process in the GBR context, specifically with respect to the targets and objectives of the Reef 2050 Long-Term Sustainability Plan.