旧水泥路面MHB碎石化工艺应用决策标准研究

基于采用MHB对旧水泥混凝土路面实施碎石化破碎工艺在决策、设计、施工与质量控制等环节不够全面、深入,结合多个工程实践,提出了碎石化工艺应用决策标准,研究成果可为旧水泥路碎石化改造提供指导.     

基于模糊多属性决策方法的承发包模式比较研究

在前人对工程承发包模式研究成果的基础上，从项目成本、效益以及风险的角度建立了比较指标体系，并提出了指标赋值方法。将承发包模式的选择问题归结为多属性决策中（MADM）的排序问题，采用离差最大化准则下的多属性决策的最优组合赋权方法来对各指标的权重进行赋值，并采用TOPSIS方法来对各方案进行比较研究。，最后通过算例进行计算和分析。     

基于马尔可夫决策理论的动态火力目标匹配

针对炮兵随行作战时的动态火力目标匹配问题,运用马尔可夫决策理论进行了探索。首先检验了马尔可夫决策理论对动态火力目标匹配的可行性,其次在可行性的基础上建立动态决策模型,最后再对模型进行了验证,所得结果符合炮兵射击的客观实际,为炮兵作战指挥员在动态火力目标匹配上提供了一种合理的决策依据和决策方法。     

基于分段学习模型的自动驾驶行为决策算法研究

在具有车道线的特定自动驾驶场景中,针对目前端到端的行为决策算法直接输入原始图像进行决策导致的网络模型迁移性差、预测精度欠佳、泛化能力不足等问题,提出一种基于分段学习模型的车辆自动驾驶行为决策算法。首先,基于GoogLeNet建立一种端到端的车道线检测网络模型,并引入车道中心线作为决策的重要线索提高算法的迁移能力,同时利用YOLOv3目标检测模型对本车道内前方最近障碍物进行位置检测;而后,经几何测量模型将两者检测结果转换成环境状态信息向量为决策做支撑;最后,构建基于长短期记忆(LSTM)网络的驾驶行为决策模型,根据编码的历史状态信息刻画出动态环境中车辆的运动模式,并结合当前时刻的状态推理得到驾驶行为参量。使用建立的真实驾驶场景数据集对模型分别进行训练、验证与测试,离线测试结果显示车道线检测模型的检测位置误差小于1.3%,车道内前方障碍物检测模型的检测精度达98%以上,驾驶行为决策网络模型表征预测优度的决定系数 大于0.7。为进一步验证算法的有效性,搭建了Simulink/PreScan联合仿真平台,多种工况下的仿真验证试验中多个评价指标均达到工程精度要求,实车测试的试验结果也表明该算法可实现复杂驾驶场景下平稳、准确无偏航的预测效果并满足实时性要求,且与传统端到端模式的算法相比,具有更好的迁移性和泛化能力。     

A decision support approach to the computerisation of some operational decision problems in community transport

Community Transport (CT) in the UK operates a diverse range of services, and organisations are computerising management and operational functions. This paper describes the approach which has been taken to computerising four operational decision making functions.

The paper considers models of human decision making and problem solving, with particular reference to an information processing view of cognitive activity and to perception and memory. The design of decision support systems is also discussed.

Four decision problems are considered. For each, the paper considers how people tackle the problem, how computers can be used to tackle it and the approach which has been adopted.

For allocating trips to vehicles using a diary, the approach has been to provide a representation on screen of a manual diary. For vehicle brokerage, vehicles are presented to the operator allocating a booking in an order based on the Sequence Number, an index of how ‘difficult to book’ a vehicle is, and the distance of the vehicle's base from the start point of the trip. For the sorting of passenger pick‐ups into an efficient tour, traditional solutions to the travelling salesperson problem have been rejected in favour of a solution using spacefilling curves. Finally, for allocating dial‐a‐ride passenger trips to vehicle shifts an approach has been chosen which presents the operator with appropriate information rather than attempting to automate the scheduling.

The paper concludes that the approach to the diary has been successful and accepted by operators, although the similar approach to the dial‐a‐ride scheduling has not, as the system has not yet been able to replace manual scheduling aids. The facility to order passenger pick‐ups is little used by operators. Finally, it is suggested that the vehicle brokerage problem may be an appropriate use of fuzzy logic.     

Future electricity demand from battery‐powered vehicles

An important decision faced by airline schedulers is how to adapt the flight schedule and aircraft assignment to unforeseen perturbations in an established schedule. In the face of unforeseen aircraft delays, schedulers have to decide which flights to delay, and when delays become excessive, which to cancel. Current scheduling models deal with simple decision problems of delay or cancellation, but not with both simultaneously. But in practice the optimal decision may involve results from the integration of both flight cancellations and delays. In Part I of this paper, a quadratic programming model for the integration decision problem is given. The model can formulate the integration of flight cancellations and delays as well as some special cases, such as the ferrying of surplus aircraft and the possibility of swapping different types of aircraft. In this paper, based on the special structure of the model, an effective algorithm is presented, sufficient computational experiments are conducted and some results are reported. These show that we can expect to obtain a sufficiently good solution in terms of reasonable CPU time.     

邻近建筑物条件下青岛地铁盾构施工风险评价

以往构建的邻近建筑条件下地铁盾构施工风险指标没有考虑指标间的相关性,且忽略专家的犹豫程度,首先从方法创新的角度利用决策实验室法（DEMATEL）确定准则层间综合影响关系,作为控制层结构关系构建网络层次结构模型,求出DEMATEL和ANP相结合的主观混合权重; 再以熵权法求解客观权重,采用主客观权重偏差平方和最小为目标函数求解组合权重; 最后考虑了专家犹豫程度,运用vague集法进行施工风险评价。通过计算得出青岛地铁1号线安安区段风险等级与工程实际相符合,进而验证了该评价方法的实用性。     

应急救援物流中物资分发点多目标排队选址优化

基于模糊数学、排队理论与选址理论,建立了应急救援物流中物资分发点的多目标模糊排队选址优化模型,其中：受灾点的需求率和物资分发点的服务率为模糊数,物资分发点建立成本最小和救援反应时间最短为目标函数．设计了模型的求解算法,确定了物资分发点的选址以及各个分发点所覆盖的受灾点区域范围．结合具体算例,验证了模型的实用性,并分析了物资分发点应急服务能力对救援效果的影响．     

模糊综合评判方法在高速公路BOT项目风险决策中的应用

高速公路BOT项目的投资风险决策分析研究,是高速公路BOT项目决策与管理的重要依据之一。从投资风险的角度出发,提出模糊综合评价风险决策方法,并通过实例检验,证明该方法具有较强的实用价值。     

高速公路沥青路面预防性养护决策研究

针对沥青路面破坏现象建立合理的路面使用性能评价标准、使用性能预测模型和预养护决策模型,可为合理科学地进行高速公路沥青路面预防性养护决策、规划提供理论依据,供高速公路养护管理部门参考。