Climate Change and Coastal Management Decisions: Insights from Christchurch Bay,UK

The integration of climate change adaptation considerations into management of the coast poses major challenges for decision makers. This article reports on a case study undertaken in Christchurch Bay, UK, examining local capacity for strategic response to climate risks, with a particular focus on issues surrounding coastal defense. Drawing primarily on qualitative research with local and regional stakeholders, the analysis identifies fundamental disjunctures between generic concerns over climate change and the adaptive capacity of local management institutions. Closely linked with issues of scale, the problems highlighted here are likely to have broad and continuing relevance for future coastal management elsewhere.     

Ex-Post Evaluations of Demand Forecast Accuracy: A Literature Review

Abstract

Travel demand forecasts play a crucial role in the preparation of decision support to policy-makers in the field of transport planning. The results feed directly into impact appraisals such as cost–benefit analyses and environmental impact assessments, which are mandatory for large public works projects in many countries. Over the last few decades, there has been increasing attention given to the lack of demand forecast accuracy. However, since data availability for comprehensive ex-post appraisals is problematic, such studies are still relatively rare. This study presents a review of the largest ex-post studies of demand forecast accuracy for transport infrastructure projects. The focus is threefold: to provide an overview of observed levels of demand forecast inaccuracy, to highlight key contextual and methodological differences between studies and to highlight key focus areas for future research in this field. The results show that inaccuracy remains problematic for road, rail and toll projects alike, but also how the lack of methodological clarity and consistency calls for a careful interpretation of these results. Mandatory, systematic ex-post evaluation programmes are suggested as a necessary tool to improve decision support, as data availability for ex-post studies is often remarkably poor even for internal audits.     

A decision support system for port selection

Abstract

A number of studies have been carried out on the factors determining port choice, derived from the perspectives of shippers, carriers or both. Recently, some studies using multi-criteria analysis, more specifically Saaty's analytical hierarchy process (AHP), have been undertaken to address port competitiveness and port selection by shipping lines. Based on a review of the literature on port selection, this article proposes a decision support system (DSS) for port selection using AHP methodology. The proposed DSS is web-based and thus it can be accessed by more decision makers and data collection can be carried out faster. Moreover, AHP addresses the issue of how to structure a complex decision problem, identify its criteria, measure the interaction among them and finally synthesise all the information to arrive at priorities, which depict preferences. AHP is able to assist port managers in obtaining a detailed understanding of the criteria and address the port selection problem utilising multi-criteria analysis. This article presents the architecture and the port selection procedure of the web-based DSS, and then illustrates three different cases. It shows how technology advancement can bring positive effects of strategic planning to shipping firms.     

������Ƶ���ĻƵ��ڼ��ʻԱ��Ϊ�о�

黄灯政策问题已成为道路交通安全领域的研究热点.本文开发了基于视频处理技术的交叉口检测系统,自动采集黄灯期间的交通数据,包括黄灯启亮时车辆到停止线距离、速度、加速度和黄灯结束后车辆的通过情况,建立黄灯期间的驾驶员“停车/行进”决策行为模型和“抢黄灯”行为结果模型.利用北京市“闹市口大街—宣武门西大街”和“中关村东路—成府路”的视频数据对模型进行检验,两个模型的预测结果与实际观测误差分别为8.6%和2.5%.实验结果表明,视频检测技术和驾驶员行为模型能够应用于交叉口的控制管理,本文提出的模型与方法可为相应交通管理措施的制定和实施提供技术支持和理论依据.     

利用决策模型评估机械冷板冷藏车运用模式的探讨

在进行专家调查的基础上,建立评价机械冷板车运用模式的决策模型,模型的主要评价指标有运用效率、运输速度、运输成本、安全性、运用范围、运输能力、运输质量等七项。用决策树方法分析机械冷板冷藏车五种运输组织方式的综合效益,结论表明定点定线和由专门的冷藏运输公司经营是值得推广和提倡的运用模式。     

决策表知识约简方法研究

伴随着铁路信息化建设,铁路各信息系统数据库中存在着大量冗余信息,如何删除那些不相关或不重要的知识就是知识约简所要解决的问题。它不仅是数据挖掘领域中的一项重要工作,而且对于数据集成、融合及铁路信息共享信息平台的建设都具有十分重要的意义。基于信息熵理论的方法就是一种很有前途的方法。本文提出一种类似信息熵的概率函数,利用这个函数可得到既适合于一致决策表,也适合于不一致决策表的知识约简方法,并以从铁道部某信息管理信息系统的数据中抽取出的决策表为例,从理论上验证了该方法的正确性。     

航次决策支持系统分析与设计

航次决策支持系统是建立在庞大的基础数据库与功能强大的决策模型的基础上的计算机软件系统,它能够方便、精确地为业务人员提供决策支持。从决策因素、决策模型、决策流程、基础数据等方面,对系统的基本原理做了深入的分析与介绍,并且给出了完整的计算实例。     

气象-经济决策理论在大风浪中船舶航线的选优应用

介绍了气象-经济决策理论的基本原理，提出了一种使用气象-经济决策理论对大风浪中航线进行优选的方法，并相应地提出了所需各种数据的获取方法。借助于一艘在冬季大风浪中穿越黄海中部的客滚集装箱班轮的实例计算分析，说明所述方法具有一定的理论意义和使用价值，并可为船舶管理人员学习使用气象一经济决策理论、提高船舶运营的经济效益提供参考。     

用于舰船推进装置方案设计的CAD系统

本文介绍一个在微机上开发出来的用于舰船装置方案设计的ＣＡＤ系统，它由数据库系统及程序设计系统组成，可根据不同的舰型情况，设计要求自动生成一系列合理的预选方案，并进行多目标优化决策，寻找出满足要求的最佳方案。     

多用户多准则固定需求随机交通均衡变分模型

运用变分不等式理论,针对非对称费用函数下准则权重与出行者类别相关的多准则路径选择问题,建立了具有固定需求量的多用户多准则随机交通均衡配流模型,分析了均衡流量的存在性和唯一性条件,由于广义路段出行成本受到路段之间流量的相互影响,可将相继平均法进行推广来求解该交通均衡的变分问题。给出了相继平均法的执行步骤和计算实例。