工程项目质量-工期-成本综合评价决策研究

工程项目决策问题是对质量、工期和成本三大目标的综合评价。传统的基于权重的决策方法存在各目标权重难以合理确定的问题。引入物理规划方法所建立的工程项目质量-工期-成本综合评价决策模型,是基于决策者设定的偏好,使得决策过程更加符合工程实际,避免了确定无实际物理意义的各目标权重,因而在公路桥梁工程项目决策中具有一定的应用价值。     

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项目融资与传统的公司融资不同，项目融资是以项目的资产收益作为抵钾来融资，即项目融资用来保证货款偿还的首要来源被限制在融资项目本身的经济强度之中。本文系统研究了项目融资决策模型用来分析项目的净现金流量与债务承受能力以及最终判断采用项目融资方式融资是否可行，并利用此模型对长(春)吉(林)高速公路项目进行了案例分析。本研究对拟采用项目融资方式为高速公路项目进行融资的高速公路经营企业的融资决策提供了有效方法和科学依据。     

道路交通安全主要影响因素的选择及检验

为了更精确地研究未来年的道路交通安全问题,将影响道路交通安全的因素分为定量与定性2种类型,对于定量因素以1983～2005年间的交通事故死亡人数及其9个相关影响因素数据为例,采用逐步回归的方法,通过SAS系统筛选出主要6个影响因素;对于定性因素,以2003～2005年的相关数据为例,采用不确定性决策方法确定主要定性影响因素。最后通过拟合检验,证明了该方法的可行性。     

不发达网络环境下基于神经网络的危险品公路运输路径决策

随着经济的发展,危险品的运输量在大幅增长,危险品对环境和人类的潜在风险在扩大。如何选择一条最佳的危险品运输路径,使其既能保证运输安全又能保证快捷地到达目的地,是决策部门面临的一个重要问题。文章在构建危险品公路运输路径决策指标系统的基础上,建立了危险品路径决策的BP神经网络模型,并通过一个例子证明了该决策模型的可行性。该方法有助于决策部门在不发达网络环境下选择合理的运输路径。     

基于部门协调的分布式决策支持系统

为了向组织结构分散化的企业提供有效的决策支持，运用协调决策理论，构建了部门间协调决策的一般性模型，并根据这一模型设计了基于部门协调的分布式决策支持系统的体系结构．在该模型中，将企业职能部门区分为主导部门和非主导部门，每个部门都有机会成为主导部门或非主导部门．此外，明确定义了协调决策过程信息交换的内容，即主导部门向非主导部门传递全局决策向量，而非主导部门向主导部门传递各自的边际收益向量．最后，描述了模型的求解过程——通过有限次部门模型求解和信息交换，最终得到决策问题满意的解答．     

基于出行方式决策过程的价格调控策略辅助措施研究

从提高个体在价格调控策略下的绿色出行意向入手，制定价格调控策略的辅助措施是提升价格调控策略有效性的重要手段.本文基于出行决策行为变化自调节阶段模型，构建了价格调控策略下的居民出行方式决策过程概念模型.利用拥堵收费和奖励策略下的出行方式决策心理调查数据，基于结构方程模型，对比分析了拥堵收费和奖励策略下不同机动化出行习惯强度个体通勤与非通勤出行方式决策心理的差异化特征.最后，针对出行方式决策过程中动机形成阶段，计划行为阶段，以及实施计划阶段的心理特征，分别提出了价格调控策略的辅助措施，为价格调控策略实施提供了更好的辅助决策支持.     

Challenges in Collaborative Governance for Coastal Restoration: Lessons from the Caernarvon River Diversion in Louisiana

In an effort to restore deteriorating coastal wetlands in Breton Sound, Louisiana, a diversion of Mississippi River water into the estuarine ecosystem has been operated at Caernarvon, Louisiana, since 1991. The diversion was implemented after a relatively long collaborative planning process beginning in the 1950s. The Caernarvon Interagency Advisory Committee, an official panel of stakeholders, considers scientific aspects of the freshwater inflow and stakeholder inputs in developing an operational plan, which internalizes stakeholder conflicts, while accomplishing goals of restoring the coastal ecosystem. Even though fishery representatives are committee members, local oyster fishers filed lawsuits in federal and state courts from 1994 through 2005, claiming damages to their oyster beds. These lawsuits were initially successful in state courts but were reversed by the Louisiana Supreme Court. The federal suits were unsuccessful. Following these lawsuits, voters in Louisiana in 2000 amended the State Constitution to protect coastal restoration projects against lawsuits reflecting increase in overall statewide support. Increasing scientific knowledge has contributed significantly to diversion operation. For better collaborative governance, efforts to increase common understanding among stakeholders will be needed, and a process to compensate interests of stakeholders suffering from impacts of restoration projects at an earlier stage should be institutionalized.     

The development of a decision making framework for evaluating the trade-off solutions of cleaner seaborne transportation

The general rise in marine fuel prices in combination with ever-more stringent environmental regulations resulting from IMO conventions and EU Directives have become the main industry drivers for seaborne transportation to become cleaner and more energy efficient. Compliance with existing and soon-to-be-enacted regulations requires evaluating the trade-off between often-conflicting options to select the best available technology or fuel source. Although the traditional way of dealing with this issue has been to apply a cost benefit analysis, this kind of analysis does not adequately consider the complexities of the problem, such as incorporating linguistic preferences or interrelations amongst attributes, experts and their preferences.The challenge in such an analysis corresponds to that of a multiple attribute decision-making problem in which a finite number of alternatives are assessed with regards to a finite number of attributes and experts and ranked from the best to the worst.In this paper, a comprehensive and holistic decision-making framework is proposed to overcome the barriers of cost-benefit analysis techniques, facilitating the inclusion of all possible combinations of decision-making parameters and their discrete values, which will eventually help the industry achieve cleaner seaborne transportation.To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework, this paper focuses on a real-life study case involving an environmental compliance problem in the Port of Copenhagen, Denmark, in relation to a particular EU Directive. In conclusion, the proposed framework can be applied as a generalised decision-making model to similar compliance issues encountered within other modes of transportation such as rail and road.     

大型铁路客运站旅客导向标识布点优化研究

铁路车站导向标识为旅客提供导向和信息服务,是旅客站内路线判断和空间位置顺畅转换的主要依据,科学合理地选择导向标识布点能够更好地辅助旅客自主获取引导信息,提供清晰、准确和高效的导向服务。根据客流流线将车站空间结构抽象为网络拓扑图,以客流导向需求为约束、最大化区域诱导信息量为目标构建导向标识布点的优化模型,根据解的空间特性设计模拟退火算法并利用Matlab实现。实例验证表明,利用该模型和算法求解导向标识布点决策实际问题,验证模型有效性和求解算法的良好性能。     

多目标决策中权重灵敏度分析的计算机模拟

在对前人关于多目标决策权重灵敏度进行分析的基础上，给出一种多目标权重灵敏度分析的模型和计算机模拟方法。并对集装箱物流通道的多目标决策问题的权重进行了灵敏度分析。